'Kerala Needs A Leader Who Can Think Out Of The Box'

'Among the leaders whose names are going around, V D Satheesan is the leader who will fit this kind of situation.'

Winning 102 seats in a 140-seat assembly with a vote share of 46.55% is a huge mandate for the United Democratic Front (UDF) in Kerala. It also means huge responsibility.

If the question before the election was, will the UDF be able to trounce the LDF, the question everybody asks now is, will the UDF be able to live up to the expectations?

Will the UDF, especially the Congress that has won 63 seats, deliver?

"Rather than trying to accommodate various interests, what we need is a leader who is capable of out-of-the box thinking, capable of taking decisions, capable of acting decisively and who also has the popular mandate behind him. If the Congress is not going for that, that will be suicidal for the Congress," Dr J Prabhash, former professor of political science and former pro vice-chancellor at the University of Kerala, tells Rediff's Shobha Warrier.

The kind of mandate that the UDF have received -- more than 100 seats -- is unprecedented. Is it anti-incumbency or a positive vote for the UDF?

It is definitely unprecedented.

I will say 80% it is anti-incumbency and within anti-incumbency, it is anti-Pinarayi.

And 20% goes to the leadership of V D Satheesan. The way in which he was able to unite everybody in the Congress together was commendable. There was little dissidence this time within the Congress.

On the other hand, the CPM and CPI faced a lot of dissident problems.

When the Congress was able to put its house in order this time, the CPM and the CPI were not able to.

So the kind of leadership, the kind of initiative, the kind of credibility which Satheesan commanded among the civil society of Kerala, takes 20% of the score.

Do you feel the way the UDF worked as a team played an important role in this victory?

Definitely. That is why I said, it was teamwork.

In other words, they truly became a United Democratic Front this time.

One of the most important credits goes to the Muslim League because they did not go for any hard bargaining. They were even prepared to make concessions.

For every party within the UDF, this was a life and death issue. And they realised that. If not this time, they were going to be washed out.

So within the Congress and also within the Front, they were able to stand united and put up a strong fight.

I should also say one more thing: Congress workers at the grassroots level, wherever the Congress was able to win, played a very important role.

It was earlier said that the Congress being out of power in Kerala for 10 years, and also the party has become so weak nationally, the Congress didn't have workers at all at the grassroot level.

Definitely, that is true.

But the workers who are around pulled together. The party organisation had almost disappeared. Despite that, the workers came together, and whatever they could do, they did and did well.

What you saw was not the lethargy of earlier times. Earlier, Congress workers were lethargic. But not this time. They did whatever they could do.

Would you say they were energised by the local body election results?

Yes, they were very optimistic. In other words, they tasted blood in the Lok Sabha election and the local body election. These elections streamlined the party workers.

They energised the party workers. Once they smell win and success, they will put their 100% energy into it.

Everybody is giving a lot of credit to V D Satheesan's leadership in this election. It appears people had faith in his leadership.
If somebody else were to become the leader of the UDF, how do you think people will then perceive the UDF government?

If somebody else is going to come, that will take away the sheen from the win of the UDF.

What the UDF wants at this point in time is a leader who can think, act and take decisions decisively, and not a leader who can compromise with various forces.

Financially Kerala is in dire straits. Centre-state relations is problematic. There is a hostile governor. The health sector is in doldrums. The education sector is facing a crisis. So also a number of sectors.

So, what we need is a leader who can think out of the box, who can act decisively.

And I think that among the leaders whose names are going around, V D Satheesan is the leader who will fit this kind of a situation.

If that is not coming, one, it will take away the sheen from the UDF win.

Two, the coming three years are very crucial for the Congress as in 2029, the Lok Sabha election is going to come. Before that, they have to make everything in order.

If that is not done, the next election will become suicidal.

So, rather than trying to accommodate various interests, what we need is a leader who is capable of out-of-the box thinking, capable of taking decisions, capable of acting decisively and who also has the popular mandate behind him.

If the Congress is not going for that, I think that will be suicidal for the Congress.

If the Congress is going to think differently, that can also be fatal for the Congress.

Do you think the consolidation of minority votes, especially the Muslim votes, played a major role in the UDF victory?

Yes, it played a very important role. I don't think it played a major role because I see this as a secular vote.

The entire people of Kerala rose against the LDF dispensation.

The people of Kerala, particularly the youth, even those who are within the Left, I mean the Left sympathisers, the Left party members, voted against the Left.

So this is an aggregate contribution of the entire population of Kerala.

Within that, the nucleus is formed by the minority votes, particularly the Muslim votes. The Christian votes as well.

The reason number one is, the minorities felt that the CPM was playing a soft Hindutva card,

Number two, they rightly understood that if the Congress or the UDF was going to be defeated, there would be a power vacuum, and that vacuum would be occupied by the BJP.

So, on the one hand, this is an existential fear. And on the other hand, this is a fear as to whether CPM was moving towards the soft Hindu line.

These two played a very important role in bringing the minorities around.

Even otherwise also, the minorities normally voted for the UDF. But this time around, it was more than 75%.

When we spoke last time, you said the young voters of Kerala were enamoured of Narendra Modi. But do you see that in the result? The BJP managed only 3 seats with a vote share of 14%..

Yes, definitely I see it. Because in 20 seats, they have a vote share of 20%.

It means in these 20 seats, it is going to be tripolar contest in the next election. In such a contest, another 13% can decisively tilt the scale in the BJP's favour.

That they got three seats itself is an indication that they have penetrated.

They got about 2% votes more than the 2021 election, 3% less than the Lok Sabha election and 0.1% less than the local body elections.

They have improved both in terms of votes and seats compared to the 2021 assembly election.

If not in the next election, maybe in another 10 years, Kerala politics can move towards a tripolar contest.

You will have to take into account one very important thing.

The next five years are going to be crucial for the CPM and the CPI. They are going to face real trouble.

The Congress had made its position safe by coming to power. So at least for the next five years, the BJP is not going to create much of a trouble for the Congress.

But the BJP is going to create a lot of trouble for the CPM and the CPI who are out of power. The Hindus constitute their social base, and the BJP has already started poaching the social base of the LDF.

From the UDF, they poached the upper caste votes; now there isn't much to come from the UDF in terms of Hindu votes.

Unless the CPM and the CPI are cautious and put their house in order, then the house will be open for the BJP to poach Hindu votes.

What will happen to the Left now? They are not in power anywhere in India and they have lost even in their bastion, northern Kerala.

The Left has no option but to revive themselves. It has the potential but the leaders should be prepared for introspection.

They should go for a new leadership. They should bring in younger generation or the middle-aged generation to the forefront.

And the old guard in the Left has to go. They have to go, either voluntarily or the party has to kick them out and bring in a new leadership.

Do you see anyone with that calibre?

I'm not saying that this leader or that leader has the calibre. Let them think.

There are a lot of people. The party has to look around and find young leaders.

There is hidden resource within the CPM. The party has to find those hidden resources, the right persons, and bring them in.

This is not a question of seniority. It is not like a person is in the politburo and therefore the leadership mantle should fall on him.

In a crisis situation, you cannot think conventionally. You'll have to make out-of-the box thinking.

And the out-of-the box thinking for the CPM now has to be to hunt for new talent, and bring them to the forefront.

They have five years ahead of them to groom a new generation of leaders. In three years, they should place them in positions of power.

So when the next election comes, the transformation will be smooth.

The Left has to revive and be there for Kerala as the state needs both the UDF and the LDF.

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff