Kerala's voters are sophisticated, educated, and unforgiving. They have once again made it clear that no government is entitled to remain in power. The Congress would do well to remember this, points out Ramesh Menon.
Key Points
- After ten years, the Congress-led United Democratic Front is back in power.
- It rode an anti-incumbency wave, running an aggressive campaign and focusing on emotive issues such as unemployment, fiscal distress, and rising debt.
- With this loss, the Left will not be in power in any state for the first time since 1977.
The Kerala voter loves change. They love rotating governments. The state has always alternated between the Congress-led United Democratic Front and the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front.
The only exception was the 2021 elections when the LDF returned to power for the second time, its largest haul since the Emergency, when it won 111 seats.
Even the Congress was surprised by the sweep's extent, having expected a neck-and-neck contest. It won 63 of the 92 seats it contested and outperformed the LDF in 11 of the 14 districts.
With the Congress now controlling most of the local bodies, including gram panchayats, block panchayats, municipalities, and municipal corporations, it has a golden opportunity to demonstrate good governance and clean politics. The moot point is whether the party will seize this rare opportunity.
With the defeat of the Pinarayi Vijayan-led LDF, India is left, for the first time since 1977, without a Communist-led state. Except for the period between 1959 and 1967, the Left, in one form or another, had remained in power in at least one Indian state for seven unbroken decades.
That long continuum has now been broken, closing a distinctive chapter in India's political history.
What went wrong with the LDF
The LDF, under Pinarayi Vijayan, 81, entered this election claiming that nearly 97% of the 900 promises in the 2021 manifesto had been fulfilled or were in advanced stages of implementation. On paper, the record was impressive. In practice, Kerala's voters had other things on their minds.
Vijayan was seen as a despotic leader. He followed a highly centralised leadership model that revolved around administrative control, political control, and a leader-centric approach to campaigns.
Even CPI-M die-hard supporters agree that he did not build a second line of leadership, despite his age. In a highly literate state where voters are politically aware, such a personality-driven approach was not well received.
Some CPI-M leaders had resigned, citing misappropriation of funds, nepotism, and internal corruption. When your own people walk away, the message is unmistakable.
The party's rebels won in what were once Left bastions.
It was a clear indicator of simmering internal dissent, despite strict cadre discipline. Kunhikrishan, who contested as an independent supported by the UDF, won in Payyannur, a red citadel. Others like him who also won were T K Govindan from Thaliparamba and former minister G Sudhakaran from Ambalapuzha.
Equally disastrous was the defeat of 13 of Vijayan's ministers, which was an eloquent statement.
The CPI-M will now have to recalibrate seriously if it is to remain relevant in the only state where it has any chance of survival.
There were positive aspects to the LDF government. Vijayan continued the infrastructure and welfare projects initiated in the previous term, gave impetus to digital connectivity through the Kerala Fibre Optic Network, and announced that Kerala had achieved complete digital literacy, claiming to be the first state in India to reach that milestone.
He was also moving towards an idea in which nobody in Kerala would be below the poverty line, something no chief minister had even attempted.
Despite this, there were a host of things that pinned down his government. It was a government that fell victim to its own longevity and arrogance -- and ultimately to scandals that gathered and never cleared.
The Scandals That Stuck
In July 2020, customs officials at Thiruvananthapuram airport intercepted 30 kg of gold concealed in diplomatic baggage. The trail led to Swapna Prabha Suresh, a former UAE consulate employee and state IT department consultant. An inquiry found that M Sivasankar, the principal secretary to Vijayan, had links to her. He was suspended. The government's credibility was damaged.
For a Communist party that built its brand on ideological purity and incorruptibility, nothing was more damaging than the perception that the chief minister had allowed his household to become a centre of privilege and patronage. Allegations mounted over the years, including financial irregularities involving his daughter Veena Vijayan; money-laundering claims against his son Vivek; and nepotism charges against his son-in-law, PWD-Tourism Minister P A Mohammed Riyas.
The Income Tax Settlement Board found that a company, CMRL, had paid Rs 1.72 crore to Veena Vijayan and her software firm, Exalogic, for services investigators characterised as non-existent. In mid-2025, the Kerala high court directed both Vijayan and Veena to respond to a PIL seeking a CBI probe. For a party that had spent decades denouncing the Congress for precisely this kind of politics, the irony was devastating.
Over time, the Muslim community perceived Vijayan's closeness to Vellappalli Natesan, former chief of the SNDP, and his high-decibel campaign against the Jamaat-e-Islami as evidence of Islamophobia. It alienated progressive voters who had never expected such rhetoric from a Left-of-centre government that prided itself on secularism.
The LDF's Muslim vote frayed at the edges, and in a state where margins can be thin, edges matter enormously.
In central Kerala, which is predominantly Christian, the UDF won all 28 seats across Ernakulam, Kottayam and Idukki. This was probably because of the Narendra Modi government's bill amending the Foreign Contributions Regulation Act, which made church authorities feel it was introduced to curb foreign donations that helped them run schools, colleges and other institutions.
How the UDF Won
While the LDF was busy defending itself, the Congress was quietly rebuilding. Led by VD Satheesan as Leader of the Opposition, it ran a disciplined campaign, managing to control the factional rivalries that have historically afflicted the party in Kerala.
That alone was a minor miracle, and it suggests the party learnt something from its ten years out of power.
Issues such as the theft of gold from the Sabarimala temple, the diplomatic baggage gold-smuggling case, and several policies perceived as anti-people became major talking points for the UDF.
Satheesan, a six-time MLA from Paravur who had spent five years systematically attacking the LDF government in the assembly, was rewarded for that sustained effort. He proved himself not just an agitator but an administrator-in-waiting and is the frontrunner for the chief minister's chair.
The UDF also benefited from minority consolidation. Muslim and Christian voters, the two communities that form the bedrock of the UDF coalition, returned home after flirting with LDF-adjacent options.
In a state where community arithmetic is as important as political argument, this was decisive.
In the Malabar region, where Muslims constitute nearly 30% of the population, the UDF won 38 out of 44 seats. In central and southern Kerala, where Muslims wield significant influence, the UDF clinched 8 of 10 seats. Of late, Muslims largely felt that the LDF was moving towards majoritarian policies to stay in power.
The Last Left Bastion Falls
Kerala's verdict did more than change a government. It closed a chapter in Indian political history that stretched back nearly seven decades.
In West Bengal, the CPI(M)-led Left Front governed without interruption for 34 years, from 1977 to 2011, the world's longest democratically elected communist government, with Jyoti Basu serving as chief minister for over 23 years.
Tripura was a Left stronghold for 25 straight years, from 1993 to 2018.
Kerala remained the last bastion. That has now fallen.
What happened to that tradition? The BJP has taken over the space for Hindu working-class mobilisation, repackaging cultural nationalism as an economic promise. The Congress has retained the secular centre.
And the Left, which once occupied the commanding heights of Indian progressive politics, finds itself without a state, without a national platform of consequence, and without a generation of leaders capable of renewing its appeal.
The BJP's Quiet Foothold
For the first time, the BJP has secured three seats in Kerala.
For a party that rules most states today, it may not sound like a big deal, but it is a milestone. A BJP insider told me that the party had won only three seats in West Bengal in 2016, and ten years later it rode to power.
"We will not make it in the next assembly elections in Kerala, but ten years later, we will be a force to contend with," he said, adding that the party has the patience to wait.
State president Rajeev Chandrasekhar cleverly avoided any mention of Hindutva politics or polarising issues, knowing they would not resonate in Kerala, which has clung to its secular fabric despite the country's changing political culture. He spoke only of development at his rallies.
The BJP's vote share of 14.2% is the highest it recorded in any Kerala assembly election.
The CM Question
Even before the elections, there was a scramble to claim the chief minister's post within the UDF. The AICC had to step in and blow the whistle. Only then did tempers cool, and they all fight as one party.
There are several contenders. Satheesan, 61, who led the Opposition in the last assembly, is the frontrunner, with deep organisational roots and the credibility of having delivered the victory. IUML chief Syed Sadikali Shihab Thangal has openly spoken in his favour. However, there is a section within the Congress that does not want to give the impression that the IUML, which is part of the UDF and has won 22 seats, is calling the shots.
Then there is K C Venugopal, 63, general secretary of the Congress, who is close to Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi.
And Ramesh Chennithala, 69, a former minister, who has been a loyal Congressman for nearly four decades.
A Golden Opportunity, and Its Pitfalls
The UDF inherits a state that, by Indian standards, is well-run. But it faces urgent challenges.
Kerala's fiscal position is seriously strained, with heavy dependence on remittances from the Gulf Diaspora. The money-order economy now faces a threat it has not seen before, stemming from the conflict in Iran.
Industrial investment remains weak. Kerala's paradox of high human development and low manufacturing employment is a structural problem that no government has yet solved.
Youth unemployment and emigration continue on a large scale. The best and brightest of Kerala leave for the Gulf and other parts of the world. While their remittances enrich the state, their absence hollows it out. Any serious Kerala government must ask: How do we build an economy that retains talent here?
The new government will also face the test of its governance culture. The LDF's scandals were partly a product of ten years of unaccountable power. The UDF, with its coalition of interests and its history of transactional politics, will face its own temptations.
Kerala's voters are sophisticated, educated, and unforgiving. They have once again made it clear that no government is entitled to remain in power. The Congress would do well to remember this.
Ramesh Menon is an award-winning journalist, documentary filmmaker, educator, and the author of Modi Demystified: The Making of a Prime Minister.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff
