Trump has a major decision to take in coming days -- specifically, how to rescue Israel from the attritional war that lies ahead, points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Israel's blitzkrieg against Iran five days ago is failing spectacularly.
The Russian media reported that: i. Israel's Rafael weapons complex has been destroyed; ii. The Haifa oil refinery is in flames; iii. The Iron Dome has been breached; iv. Israel's air dominance is a figment of imagination.
On Tuesday, Iran fired cruise missiles for the first time against Israel.
Another wave of Iranian missile and drone attack targeted the Nevatim airbase in southern Israel, where stealth fighter jets, transport aircraft, tanker aircraft and machines for electronic reconnaissance/surveillance, etc. are stationed.
Some Iranian reports claim (external link) that 'plumes of smoke were rising from areas near the Dimona nuclear facility,' where an estimated 90 Israeli nuclear warheads are stored.
If true, this must be highly embarrassing for Israel which has been maintaining a policy of deliberate ambiguity in regard to its nuclear capabilities as well as for President Donald Trump who is constantly hectoring Iran while turning a blind eye on Israel's clandestine nuclear weapon stockpiles right under his nose -- apart from exposing the IAEA.
According to the independent Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Israel's nuclear warheads are capable of being delivered anywhere within a maximum radius of 4,500 km by its F-15, F-161, and F-35I 'Adir' aircraft, its 50 land-based Jericho II and III missiles, and by about 20 Popeye Turbo cruise missiles, launched from submarines.
Suffice to say, rational minds among the Israeli elite feel worried. Typically, Danny Yatom, former head of Mossad, is quoted as saying, 'Iranians will not kneel; they will not raise the flag of surrender and they will not give in!'
The American broadcast television network NBC has reported that Israel asked Iran, through Western mediators, to stop its retaliatory attacks and return to nuclear negotiations.
This would probably explain Trump's bombastic post on Sunday in Truth Social that Israel and Iran will end their violent conflict by 'making a deal' through his mediation.
Trump wrote, 'We will have peace, soon, between Israel and Iran. Many calls and meetings now taking place.'
He even drew the analogy of his success in brokering peace between India and Pakistan recently.
However, the realisation may have since dawned on Trump that Iranians will not forget or forgive the assassinations of their military commanders or the destruction and loss of life of dozens of civilians in the Israeli blitzkrieg, which targeted Iran's nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and residential buildings in Tehran and other cities.
Trump has a major decision to take in coming days as regards the next move -- specifically, how to rescue Israel from the attritional war that lies ahead.
Pressure for US military intervention is mounting. Trump is obligated one way or another to all three segments of the Israel Lobby -- Zionists, evangelical Christians and wealthy Jewish elites who are kingmakers in American politics.
The pendulum is wildly swinging in Trump's mercurial mind.
He was in an irritable mood at the G-7 summit in Canada on Monday, cut short his trip and picked a nasty public quarrel with French President Emmanuel Macron for simply commenting that Trump hurried back to wrap up a ceasefire.
Trump wrote angrily, 'Publicity seeking President Emmanuel Macron, of France, mistakenly said that I left the G7 Summit, in Canada, to go back to D.C. to work on a "cease fire" between Israel and Iran. Wrong! He has no idea why I am now on my way to Washington, but it certainly has nothing to do with a Cease Fire. Much bigger than that. Whether purposely or not, Emmanuel always gets it wrong. Stay Tuned!'
Four hours later, he clarified, 'I have not reached out to Iran for "Peace Talks" in any way, shape, or form. This is just more HIGHLY FABRICATED, FAKE NEWS! If they want to talk, they know how to reach me. They should have taken the deal that was on the table -- Would have saved a lot of lives!!!'
Seven hours later, Trump claimed, 'We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran. Iran had good sky trackers and other defensive equipment, and plenty of it, but it doesn't compare to American made, conceived, and manufactured "stuff." Nobody does it better than the good ol' USA.'
But a few minutes later, Trump threatened Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: 'We know exactly where the so-called "Supreme Leader" is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there -- We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don't want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter!'
Seven minutes later, another nasty post followed in capital letters: 'UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!'
That was 9 hours ago. Presumably, Trump wound up Tuesday by ordering Iran to crawl on its knees. The chances of Iran obliging him are zero.
In fact, the chairman of the chiefs of staff of Iran's armed forces Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi said on Tuesday (external link) that the operations carried out so far have served as a deterrent warning, and the actual 'punitive operations' are set to begin soon.
The general asked the inhabitants of Tel Aviv and Haifa 'to leave these areas for the sake of their lives.'
In fact, an Iranian commentary underscored yesterday that 'Israeli strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure and southern ports near the Persian Gulf could shift the nature of the conflict dramatically... This is precisely what Iran identifies as its strategic red line.'
The commentary (external link) continues: 'What we're witnessing is a multi-level hybrid conflict, a complex puzzle involving direct warfare, proxy engagement, diplomatic pressure, and a simmering "cold peace" -- all unfolding at once... But such a scenario is unsustainable, as Israel... knows it cannot endure a prolonged high-intensity conflict.'
The commentary estimates that a ceasefire 'would likely be a tense calm or a "cold peace" rather than true stability.'
Because, 'What's emerging now is a fluid and brutal new balance of power... The Persian Gulf, Israel, the Axis of Resistance, and the global energy market are no longer separate arenas -- but interconnected pieces in a simultaneous, high-stakes game.'
The great dilemma for Trump is that there's no quick fix solution in sight.
On his way back to the US, Trump said (external link) he wanted a 'real end' to the conflict and that he was 'not too much in a mood to negotiate'.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz also noted (external link) that Trump was indeed considering that option. The US is rapidly building up its forces in the Gulf region.
However, US intervention may trigger a continental war that will outlive Trump's presidency and destroy his presidency, as Bush's 2003 Iraq invasion destroyed his.
And Trump might as well forget about America First, MAGA, Ukraine, Taiwan, tariff wars, immigration, inflation, China, etc.
Even European allies won't stand by Trump. Macron told reporters on the sidelines of the G7 summit after Trump's departure, 'The biggest mistake today would be to try to do a regime change in Iran through military means because that would lead to chaos.'
Macron warned that 'no one can say what comes next... We never support actions of regional de-stabilisation.'
Do not forget that the sceptics include US Vice President J D Vance also, whose suspicion of foreign entanglements had its origins in his time as a US Marine in Iraq, where he became disillusioned with America's interventionist regime change projects and ill-fated 'forever wars' in the region.
Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar served the Indian Foreign Service for 29 years.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com
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