India is likely to post an impressive growth of 7.2 per cent this year and 7.3 per cent next year despite an overall slowdown in Asia-Pacific region due to adverse effects of tsunami and oil price shocks, a United Nations report said on Monday.
"Assuming no major internal or external shocks and no political instability, India should be able to sustain real GDP growth rates in the range of 7-7.5 per cent in 2005-07," Economic and Social Commission for Asia and Pacific survey said.
The growth would be supported by a 2-4 per cent growth in agriculture coupled with 7.5-8 per cent growth in industry and 8.5 per cent in services, it said.
Escap projects India to grow by 7.2 per cent, while rest of the Asia-Pacific region economy as a whole is likely to expand by 6.2 per cent during the current calender year 2005.
For 2006, the survey predicts Indian economy to expand by 7.3 per cent.
India will be one of fastest growing among its neighbours with Pakistan expected to grow by 6.6 per cent, Sri Lanka (5-6 per cent), Bangladesh (5.2 per cent), Nepal (4 per cent) and Iran (7.1 per cent). Only Bhutan is slated to grow faster than India and log 8 per cent GDP growth.
Escap has warned that external and regional environment weakness for the Asia-Pacific region looms large with a possible rise in inflation if global oil prices remain high rest of the year.
The Escap projections are based on oil price at $38 a barrel, RIS economist Nagesh Kumar said, adding growth could be choked by 0.5 per cent if global crude prices continue to remain over $50 a barrel.
