The International Monetary Fund sees a long war in Iraq cutting global economic growth by up to two percentage points from a revised 2003 forecast of 3.3 per cent, Germany's Handelsblatt daily reported on Tuesday.
The IMF said global growth is projected to reach 3.9 per cent in 2018 and 2019, in line with the forecast of the April 2018 WEO, but the expansion is becoming less even, and risks to the outlook are mounting.
The simultaneous decline of several trade-related indicators should put policy makers on guard for a sharper slowdown.
In the first quarter of FY14, real GDP growth estimated by the Central Statistics Office stood at 4.4 per cent on a factor cost basis, and at 2.4 per cent on a market price basis, the IMF said.
'There is a time for lowering one's expectations of the economy -- and therefore not trying to do too much in the Budget,' notes T N Ninan.
The Indian rupee is down nearly 2 per cent against the US dollar since the beginning of January 2019. Experts attribute the Indian rupee's relatively poor performance to a sharper-than-expected fall in economic growth in India.
IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath also said the pickup in global growth for 2020 remains highly uncertain as it relies on improved growth outcomes for stressed economies like Argentina, Iran, and Turkey and for under-performing emerging and developing economies such as Brazil, India, and Mexico.
"Growth is expected to moderate gradually in China... pick up in India, and remain broadly stable in the Asean-5 region."
Indian economy grew 7.9% in March quarter and recorded a five-year high growth rate of 7.6% for the 2015-16 fiscal
'The question is, how soon we can expect to re-attain the pre-lockdown levels of output and income.'
Reliance Industries raced to 52-week high on better than estimated earnings and announcement of bonus share.
Yes, India needs desperate measures to kick-start growth. But selling off its lungs to the highest bidder to hack away cannot be the way out, says Sumit Bhattacharya.
Supported by slightly stronger global growth, improving export competitiveness and implementation of recently approved investment projects, India's growth is expected to recover from 4.4 per cent in 2013 to 5.4 per cent in 2014, the IMF said.
However, India is likely to regain the tag of the fastest growth emerging economies of the world in 2018.
RBI must balance the need for improving domestic bank credit demand and respond to lower inflation.
The Finance Ministry expects GDP growth to be 8-8.5 per cent in 2015-16.
Of the seven surveys presented under Modi govt, predictions of three were quite close to the actual GDP growth rate, one saw the base year change in between, but the last three were way off the mark.
IMF cut its 2016 global growth forecast for the fourth time in the past year to 3.2 per cent, citing China's slowdown.
Raghuram Rajan, who was Chief Economic Advisor in the Finance Ministry before taking over as RBI Governor on September 4, is scheduled to announce the next mid-quarter policy review on December 18.
Rejecting IMF and World Bank's "unduly" pessimistic projections, Prime Minister's key economic advisory council chairman C Rangarajan on Thursday exuded confidence that the growth would be around 5.5 per cent in the current fiscal.
OPEC hopes lower fuel prices will stimulate more demand in the long run
India is projected to grow at 6.3 per cent in 2015 and 6.5 per cent in 2016, when it is likely to cross China's projected growth rate of 6.3 per cent, the IMF said.
Growth in emerging market and developing economies will slow to 4.4 per cent in 2014, before rising to 5.0 per cent in 2015, it said.
The size of the GDP in the second quarter of 2018-19 is estimated at Rs 33.98 lakh crore, as against Rs 31.72 lakh crore a year ago
Indian economy is expected to expand at 8.5-9 per cent over 10-15 year time frame once the structural issues hampering growth are addressed by the government.
The advanced economies have been experiencing their longest period of slow growth.
RBI projects GDP growth in FY16 at 7.8 per cent, 30 bps higher than FY15. However, this comes with a downward bias.
Christine Lagarde said the prospect of rising interest rates in the US and China's slowdown are contributing to uncertainty and higher market volatility.
Although the first woman to hold the position of chief economist at IMF, it would be wrong to see her appointment through the lens of gender
He says he does not share IMF's pessimism.
The temporary disruptions (primarily to private consumption) caused by cash shortages accompanying the currency exchange initiative are expected to gradually dissipate in 2017 as cash shortages ease, the International Monetary Fund said in its regional economic outlook.
The advanced economies have been experiencing their longest period of slow growth in many decades.
The global lending agency also said that Brexit has resulted in global economic uncertainty.
Although as per the IMF-OECD estimates, an incremental growth of 1.8 per cent in global GDP is achievable
The record breaking spree was led by index heavyweights, financials and metal stocks.
It was a "bloody Monday" for Chinese stock markets as shares once again nosedived in the sharpest decline since 2007.
Global growth, according to IMF, likely to be lower at 3.3%
IMF said in 2017, India is likely to grow at the rate of 7.2 per cent instead of the earlier projected 7.6 per cent.
India expects to remain unscathed this time, mainly because it is in a sweet spot as the world's third largest oil consumer, after the US and China, says Subhomoy Bhattacharjee.
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