States will remain "net gainers" of the proposed GST rate rationalisation exercise with their GST revenues, including devolution, estimated to be over Rs 14.10 lakh crore this fiscal, according to an SBI Research report released on Tuesday. It said that, as was evidenced in the earlier exercise of GST rate rationalisation in 2018 and 2019, an immediate reduction in rates can cause a short-term dip of around 3-4 per cent in month-on-month collections (roughly Rs 5,000 crore, or an annualised Rs 60,000 crore), revenues typically rebound with sustained growth of 5-6 per cent per month.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's biggest challenge will be to find a new growth driver, particularly against the backdrop of a global economy ravaged by heightened uncertainty and fragmentation, financial markets on a precipice, and global commodity prices on a continued uptrend.
As the poverty rates in the country declined below 5 percent in 2024, a research study by State Bank of India also highlighted that the extreme poverty in the country has been reduced to minimal.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday met the long-standing demand of banks by allowing them to finance acquisitions by Indian companies, a move that also expands banks' capital market lending in the country.
The State Bank of India (SBI), in its research, has estimated GDP growth during the current financial year (2024-25) to be 6.3 per cent, assuming that the NSO does not make major revisions to the erstwhile first and second quarter estimates.
The argument that India is going towards a 'Hindu rate of growth' is "ill-conceived, biased and pre-mature" when weighed against the respective data on savings and investments, said SBI Research in its Ecowrap report. The term Hindu rate of growth was coined by economist Raj Krishna in 1978, which denoted the economic growth of about 3.5-4.0 per cent in terms of GDP during 1947-1980. "India's quarterly sequential Y-o-Y GDP growth has been in a declining trend in FY23.
India's economic growth is expected to be lower at 6.3 per cent this fiscal compared to the RBI's projection of 6.5 per cent, a SBI Research Report said on Thursday. The report pegged the first quarter GDP estimate at around 6.8-7 per cent, mainly due to muted private capex.
The per capita income of Indians as gleaned from income-tax filing is expected to increase from Rs 2 lakh in FY23 to Rs 14.9 lakh in FY47, coinciding with 100 years of the country's Independence, according to SBI Research. In dollar terms it will increase from about $2,500 in FY23 to $12,400 in FY47. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic adviser, State Bank of India, said the weighted mean income was Rs 4.4 lakh in AY14. That rose to Rs 13 lakh in FY23.
The GDP growth is expected to be about 6.3 per cent in the current fiscal year, a tad lower than the government's estimate of 6.4 per cent, owing to several factors such as weak demand, SBI research report said on Wednesday. According to the first advance estimates (FAE) of National Income for 2024-25 released by the National Statistics Office (NSO), released on Tuesday, India's economic growth rate is estimated to slip to a four-year low of 6.4 per cent in 2024-25, because of poor showing by the manufacturing and subdued investments.
By democratising access to finance, empowering women and marginalised groups, and adapting to India's diverse regional landscapes, PMMY has helped fortify the country's grassroots growth engines, says Chief Economic Advisor to the Government of India, V Anantha Nageswaran.
'The US has agreed to negotiate with us a mutually beneficial bilateral trade agreement, which will go for reduction of tariffs on both sides so that our trade can grow.'
Pencilling in a GDP growth in third and fourth quarters, SBI Research on Wednesday revised its contraction forecast for the current fiscal year to 7 per cent. The agency had earlier forecast a 7.4 per cent contraction in 2020-21 GDP numbers. In April-September, the economy contracted 15.7 per cent but the second half may see a surprise 2.8 per cent growth, if the SBI analysis turns out to be correct.
Net job creation in the economy fell by 16.9 lakh in FY21 over the previous fiscal, shows an SBI Research analysis of EPFO payroll data. However, the FY21 numbers are better than the FY20 net job creation, which had declined by 28.9 lakh, further cementing the view that the economy is not creating new employment opportunities. The latest EPFO data shows that net new EPF subscribers stood at 94.5 lakh in FY21, and NPS added 5.82 lakh, taking the cumulative net addition to 100.4 lakh, which is marginally down from 102.3 lakh in FY20.
The report also described the RBI as an "extremely visionary, pragmatic and fairly independent" organisation throughout its history
The net financial savings of the household sector has moderated to 5.1% of GDP in FY23 from 7.6 per cent in FY20, as households shifted their savings to physical assets amid low interest rates during the pandemic, according to State Bank of India's (SBI) Research report.
Citing a weak manufacturing sector coupled with the steep margin compression, SBI Research has pencilled in the country's GDP growth for the second quarter at 5.8 per cent, down 30 basis points from average estimates. The government will release the official numbers on November 30. In a report on Monday, SBI Research headed by Soumya Kanti Ghosh said corporate results, operating profit of companies, excluding banking and financial sector, degrew by 14 per cent in Q2FY23 as against 35 per cent growth in Q2FY22, though the top line continued to grow at a healthier pace.
This may free up resources for productive or lending purposes.
Indicating a faster-than-expected recovery, remittances from migrant labourers and the number of first-time EPFO registrations have crossed the pre-lockdown levels in September, according to a report. Another silver lining is the massive 60 per cent increase in the number of Jan Dhan accounts to over 41 crore and the balances in them, which also indicate the fall in crimes during the lockdown months, SBI Research said in a report on Tuesday. After a significant reduction in remittances due to the lockdown in April, it improved in June and July, and the numbers in September have crossed the pre-pandemic level in February.
IndusInd Bank was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising nearly 6 per cent, followed by Axis Bank, SBI, Maruti, Tech Mahindra and Reliance Industries. NSE Nifty surged 183.70 points to close at 17,166.90.
The report said the moratorium for three more months will imply that companies need not pay till August 31, 2020, and this means that there is almost minimal possibility of companies being able to service their interest liabilities then in September.
Leading economists have pencilled in a high 13-15.7 per cent uptick in the economy in the first quarter of 2022-23 with an upward bias. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, the group chief economic adviser at State Bank of India, on Tuesday said he expects the GDP to clip past 15.7 per cent in the first quarter with more chances of the final numbers printing in higher, while Aditi Nayar, the chief economist at the rating agency Icra, said the economy will grow much lower at 13 per cent in the June quarter. The national statistical office will announce the first quarter GDP numbers later next week.
The report, however, admitted that 10 of these top 15 districts are major cities and among them Bengaluru and Pune still have higher infection rates.
SBI Research has projected the Indian economy to grow at 7.5 per cent in 2022-23, an upward revision of 20 basis points from its earlier estimate. As per official data, the economy grew by 8.7 per cent in FY22, net adding Rs 11.8 lakh crore in the year to Rs 147 lakh crore, the report said, adding this was however only 1.5 per cent higher than the pre-pandemic year of FY20. "Given the high inflation and the subsequent upcoming rate hikes, we believe that real GDP will incrementally increase by Rs 11.1 lakh crore in FY23. "This still translates into a real GDP growth of 7.5 per cent for FY23, up by 20 basis points over our previous forecast," SBI chief economist Soumyakanti Ghosh said in a note on Thursday.
The country's gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to grow at 5.8 per cent in the third quarter of fiscal 2022, according to an SBI's research report- Ecowrap. The country's economy expanded by 8.4 per cent in the second quarter of 2021-22, to cross pre-pandemic levels. However, the GDP growth in July-September period was slower than the 20.1 per cent expansion in the previous quarter.
The country's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow at around 18.5 per cent with an upward bias in the first quarter of the current financial year, according to SBI research report Ecowrap. This estimate is lower than the Reserve Bank of India's GDP growth projection of 21.4 per cent for the April-June quarter. "Based on our 'Nowcasting' model, the forecasted GDP growth for Q1 FY22 would be around 18.5 per cent (with upward bias)," the report said. Higher growth in Q1 FY22 is mainly on account of a low base.
The country's gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to grow more than 9.5 per cent in fiscal 2021-22, an SBI research report-Ecowrap said. The economy grew at 8.4 per cent in the second quarter of the current fiscal, according to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Tuesday. The growth in the April-June quarter of this fiscal stood at 20.1 per cent. In October's monetary policy review, the Reserve Bank of India had retained its projection for real GDP growth at 9.5 per cent in 2021-22, consisting of 7.9 per cent in Q2; 6.8 per cent in Q3; and 6.1 per cent in Q4 of 2021-22.
At all India level, per capita income will decline by 5.4 per cent in FY21 to Rs 1.43 lakh, the report said.
If there is no third wave of the pandemic, the fiscal position of the Centre and the states will be much better than budgeted for FY22 and the states may garner Rs 60,000 crore more in tax collections at Rs 8.27 lakh crore this fiscal year than they have budgeted, a report said. The report by SBI Research on Monday bases its optimism on GST collection so far this fiscal, which has been the best ever in spite of the fact that the two months bore the maximum brunt of the second wave -- with April setting a record Rs 1.41 lakh crore and May collection a tad low at Rs 1.03 lakh crore. The report also said overall government finances do not look overstretched as GST collections have continued to maintain pace so far and the additional fiscal impact arising from free vaccination and more food supplies will only be around Rs 28,512 crore.
Following the demonetisation move, the recast in direct tax moves is expected to give a boost the economy.
With retail inflation witnessing significant uptick in May, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to maintain status quo in its August monetary policy review, according to a report. According to the SBI's research report- Ecowrap, inflation may remain elevated in the coming months due to several global and domestic factors. "We expect a status-quo in August. We believe RBI would still try to find a marriage of convenience of regulatory and developmental measures and monetary policy in August policy," the research report said on Wednesday.
The government Rs 20 lakh crore package includes Rs 1.7 lakh crore of fiscal stimulus announced in the first phase, Rs 5.6 lakh crore stimulus provided through various monetary policy measures and Rs 5.94 lakh crore through the second phase, implying Rs 6.70 lakh crore package is still to be announced.
The country's GDP is likely to grow at 1.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2020-21 and may see a contraction of around 7.3 per cent for the full financial year, according to an SBI research report 'Ecowrap'. The e-National Statistical Office (NSO) will release the GDP estimates for the March 2021 quarter and provisional annual estimates for the year 2020-21 on May 31. "Based on our 'nowcasting model', the forecasted GDP growth for Q4 would be around 1.3 per cent (with downward bias) as against NSO (National Statistical Office) projection of a negative (-)1 per cent," the research report said.
However, the SBI report said it will take almost seven-quarters from Q4 FY21 to reach the pre-pandemic level in nominal terms and there will be a permanent output loss of around 9 per cent of GDP.
The SBI report, however, said the economic growth rate will pick up pace in 2020-21 to 6.2 per cent.
Inflation, as measured on the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), has been in the negative zone since November 2014.
Need of the hour is to spend to grow more, the study said.
With the 115 bps reduction in repo rate beginning February, banks have already transmitted 72 bps to the customers on fresh loans and some large banks have transmitted as much as 85 basis points.
Yes Bank was the top loser in the Sensex pack cracking 6.51 per cent, followed by SBI, Axis Bank, Vedanta, Sun Pharma, ICICI Bank, IndusInd Bank, ITC, Infosys and Tech Mahindra, shedding up to 3.69 per cent.
The report admits that converting MSP to a floor price of auction on the eNAM portal will not completely solve the problem as the current data shows that average modal prices in e-NAM mandis is lower than the minimum support price in all commodities except urad.
Lower reduction in fiscal deficit is to stimulate demand in a weak economic environment post demonetisation.
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