The repo rate has been unchanged since January, when the RBI increased it by a quarter percentage point.
The government has taken on more and more debt to finance the deficit and more debt also means more interest.
Urjit Patel as the new RBI governor whose focus is on taming inflation has lowered the probability of interest rate cut soon
The Covid winter seems to be finally ending for debt-oriented mutual fund (MF) schemes as interest rates peak, especially for those that invest in shorter-maturity papers. In the past two months, shorter-horizon debt schemes - ultra-short, low-duration, and money-market - have together raked in net inflows of Rs 48,000 crore, the highest for two months since April-May 2021. These schemes invest in shorter-maturity papers ranging from three months to a year.
Both the RBI and the central government should see that the transmission of the rate reduction by the banks happens soon, otherwise the whole exercise is futile, says Subramanian MV.
Quarterly earnings, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors will drive stock markets in this holiday-shortened week, analysts said. It will be a trading holiday on January 22, with the Maharashtra government announcing a holiday in connection with the consecration of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya. Equity markets would also remain closed on Friday for Republic Day.
Food and fuel are two perennial areas of concern.
'Given the inherent volatility, investors should take at least a three to five-year view.'
A rapid fall in crude oil prices has meant the RBI is a year ahead of its inflation-targeting schedule
Among the Sensex firms, Infosys, NTPC, Power Grid, Titan, ITC, Tech Mahindra, Hindustan Unilever, Axis Bank, Tata Consultancy Services, Bajaj Finserv, Reliance Industries and UltraTech Cement were the biggest gainers. In contrast, IndusInd Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, JSW Steel, HDFC Bank and Maruti were the major laggards.
Metals, auto and banking shares were in the limelight in this session; the FMCG pack, however, ended lower.
Industry chamber Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry said the Reserve Bank of India should intervene and cut interest rates.
Inflation, remained in negative territory for the 7th month in May
HCL Technologies was the biggest gainer in the Sensex pack, rising 5.58 per cent, followed by Tata Consultancy Services and Infosys, State Bank of India, Tech Mahindra, Tata Steel, NTPC and Wipro. In contrast, Nestle, Bharti Airtel, Maruti and ITC were among the laggards.
'The cost of financing the fiscal deficit will decrease, as new passive investors join in.'
Banks have reduced their base rate or the minimum lending rate in the range of 0.1-0.5 per cent till April 15.
Riding on a bull run, equity investors became richer by Rs 128.77 lakh crore in the 2023-24 fiscal, driven by robust fundamentals of the Indian economy, increased investment inflows and promising corporate earnings. After a muted performance in 2022-23, equity markets made a remarkable recovery in FY24, giving handsome returns to investors. The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 14,659.83 points or 24.85 per cent in 2023-24.
Investors are reluctant to take long-term positions this year after the spectacular gains in 2023. The delivery-based trades on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) have declined to below 36 per cent this year from an average of 38.1 per cent in 2023. Investors tend to seek delivery for stocks where they see a long-term investment opportunity or tactical positional trade.
The RBI, in its last policy statement, had mentioned that 'headroom for further monetary easing remains quite limited' due to risks on account of the current account, and pressures on inflation.
The other prominent gainers were Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies, Wipro, State Bank of India and Larsen & Toubro. Bajaj Finserv, Power Grid, UltraTech Cement and HDFC Bank were among the laggards.
Markets have witnessed a gap down opening mirroring losses in the global equities with US markets taking a hit on worries about the health of Chinese economy.
The absence of any recovery in investment is underlined by the capital goods sector.
Monsoon session of Parliament expected to be stormy and likelihood of GST Bill and Land Bill getting passed are slim
Since January 1, the rupee value has fallen by 5.5 per cent against the US dollar and touched life-time low of 58.98 on Tuesday.
Morgan Stanley expects the central bank to cut rates this week, 125 bps in cuts through 2015.
India Inc on Wednesday said the Reserve Bank's move to cut interest rate by 0.50 per cent is "pro-growth" and exhorted banks to transmit the lower interest rate to borrowers to revive demand and kick-start the investment cycle.
'The main worry is lots of new investors coming into the markets in order to make a quick buck/easy money.' 'Those things are happening again and have happened in the past as well.' 'All that has led to problems.' 'We are not there yet, but will get there eventually.'
Axis Bank, Tata Steel, Kotak Mahindra Bank, ICICI Bank, Tata Motors, and Bajaj Finance were among the other major laggards. Tata Consultancy Services, Reliance Industries, UltraTech Cement, Infosys, HCL Technologies, and Tech Mahindra were among the gainers.
Among the Sensex firms, State Bank of India, Infosys, Titan, Tech Mahindra, IndusInd Bank, NTPC, ICICI Bank, Power Grid, Reliance Industries and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the major laggards. On the other hand, Tata Motors, Nestle, Hindustan Unilever, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finance and UltraTech Cement were among the gainers.
Says impact of crisis in China won't be as big here as in some other countries
Insufficient rainfall will have a negative impact on the economy.
Global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would largely dictate terms in the equity markets this week amid a lack of major domestic triggers, analysts said. Markets may face near-term consolidation due to elevated valuations, they noted. "While the previous week was predominantly shaped by developments in the US Federal Reserve policy, attention will now shift to the Bank of Japan's policy decision on December 19," Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd, said.
Despite multiple headwinds at the start of 2023, the Indian markets delivered a strong performance, posting 19-20 per cent growth for the year. Even as new records were set, investor sentiment remains strong going into 2024, given the lower inflation, expectations of steady to lower interest rates, higher economic growth, and strong inflows. However, the overriding concern for most brokerages is valuations.
In a memorable year for the equity market, Dalal Street investors added a whopping Rs 81.90 lakh crore to their wealth in 2023 as a raft of positive factors powered a stellar rally in stocks. Experts said India's strong macroeconomic fundamentals, political stability owing to the BJP's success in recent elections in three significant states, optimistic corporate earnings outlook, signals from the US Federal Reserve about three prospective rate cuts next year and heavy retail investors participation played a major role in fuelling the stock market rally in 2023. In the year 2023, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 11,399.52 points or 18.73 per cent.
Moody's earlier this week lowered its growth forecast to 7 per cent, from 7.5 per cent.
Foreign brokerage Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) on Friday said a "dovish" Reserve Bank will slash key interest rates by 0.25 per cent at the February review meet and will do cuts of 0.75 per cent in 2015.
Among the Sensex firms, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies, Tata Consultancy Services, Wipro and JSW Steel were the major gainers during the morning deals. Nestle, Bharti Airtel, Axis Bank ITC were among the laggards.
ITC emerged as the top gainer by rising 3.03 per cent.
Rajan had cautioned against any deviation from the fiscal discipline path.
Alternative Investment Funds (AIFs) with a lock-in period performed better than the ones that allow investors to withdraw capital at any time. Close-ended schemes had a median return of 5.62 per cent in December, according to data from industry tracker PMSBazaar. The median returns for open-ended schemes were 3.91 per cent
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