'One way of doing this could be offering credit guarantee to the banks, say 10 per cent, for fresh loans given to micro, small and medium enterprises,' observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty hit their fresh record levels on Thursday after lower inflation numbers raised hopes of an interest rate cut by the RBI. Besides, heavy buying in capital goods, consumer durable and industrial stocks also helped the indices, traders said. Retail inflation continued its downward slide to reach a one-year low of 4.75 per cent in May due to a marginal decline of prices in the food basket and remained within the Reserve Bank's comfort zone of below 6 per cent, according to government data released on Wednesday.
Banks have not cut rates yet as March is typically a busy season.
'If rate cuts happen, bond yields will come down and investors will make mark-to-market capital gains on them.'
Wholesale inflation fell to a 4-month low of 1.31 per cent in August due to a decline in prices of vegetables and fuel, even though onion and potato prices spiked, according to official data released on Tuesday. Wholesale price index-based inflation fell for the second straight month in August after it hit a high of 3.43 per cent in May. Inflation in July was 2.04 per cent. In August last year, WPI inflation was (-) 0.46 per cent.
In case the repo rate keeps trending downwards, borrowers can expect a downward revision of their MCLR-linked loans.
Most economists feel the RBI has room for a 25-basis point cut, having met inflation targets comfortably
'The biggest near-term risk to Indian equities is the outflow of investments to China as tactical trades by foreign investors.'
Top Sensex gainers include Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj Auto, Asian Paints, IndusInd Bank, HUL, and Maruti, rallying up to 5.87 per cent. While, ICICI Bank, NTPC and ITC slipped up to 0.13 per cent.
The bias for the BSE benchmark index, technical charts suggest, is likely to remain bullish as long as the index holds above 75,600 levels for the rest of the year.
Historically, there has been no correlation between growth in bank credit to industry and lower benchmark interest rate
Corporate bond issuances fell by around 22 per cent in August, despite easing yields as issuers delayed raising funds awaiting the US Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates from this month. Corporates and financial institutions expect yields to fall further and borrowing costs to become cheaper, said market participants. The US Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps in the 17-18 September meeting, marking the start of a downward interest rate cycle.
Durable, automobile and real estate players have been lobbying hard for a tax cut, saying it will boost demand.
More rate cut by RBI unlikely this fiscal, say Ind-Ra
The three day MPC meeting began on Monday and the decision will be announced on Wednesday by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das.
A number of non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) have tapped into the debt capital market ahead of the festival season to meet increasing credit demand as bank funding slows. On Tuesday, Aptus Value Housing Finance secured Rs 300 crore at an interest rate of 8.75 per cent through bonds maturing in five years. ICICI Home Finance Company turned to the market to raise Rs 275 crore at 7.94 per cent, alongside another Rs 300 crore at 7.95 per cent, through bonds maturing in five and three years, respectively.
Do not, however, enter expecting quick returns.
RBI Governor would like to wait till Budget before taking any action on rate front.
Among Sensex shares, Hindustan Unilever, Bharti Airtel, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, Mahindra & Mahindra, ICICI Bank, ITC and Asian Paints were the biggest winners. On the other hand, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Reliance Industries, NTPC, UltraTech Cement and Power Grid were among the laggards.
The liquidity will move into deficit after advance tax payments and GST outflows. It will rebound in October because of government spending.
Most investors should have a 5% to 10% allocation to gold for diversification. They should stagger their investments to mitigate timing risk.
New borrowers will benefit if banks cut their MCLR. Older borrowers' EMIs will change only when their reset date arrives
Gold is an excellent asset class for diversification and should be included in all long-term portfolios.
Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty slumped over 1 per cent on Friday, tracking a weak trend in global markets and fresh foreign fund outflows. Falling for the third day running, the 30-share BSE Sensex tumbled 1,017.23 points or 1.24 per cent to settle at 81,183.93.
Despite inflation easing, experts see RBI maintaining status quo on Dec 2
Soon after RBI announcing a much- awaited rate cut, Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian on Wednesday said that the global rating agencies should look at upgrading their stance on India's credit outlook. "Now we have a 50 basis points rate cut (in two tranches within two months) and I think that is good for the economy and all rate cuts benefits... If the outlook is looking good, the rating agencies should draw their lessons from that om improving the outlook," Subramanian told reporters. After presentation of Union Budget 2015-16 last week, global and domestic agencies had ruled out any immediate upgrade in India's sovereign ratings and had red-flagged the country's delayed fiscal consolidation roadmap and had also warned against any slippages from the "ambitious" disinvestment plan proposed in Budget. Subramanian said that the rate cut is consistent with the government's views in the last week's Economic Survey and thereafter in the Union Budget for the outlook on inflation and for the outlook on overall economy. "It (rate cut) shows that RBI and government are on the same page in terms of how we view the economy. It also means that Budget can be seen as conducive to non-inflationary growth," he added. On monetary policy framework agreement, Subramanian said that both Finance Ministry and RBI have shared concern about inflation. Recently, the Finance Ministry and the Reserve Bank agreed to 'inflation rate targeting' under which the apex bank will aim to lower retail inflation to below 6 per cent by January 2016.
The US Fed interest rate decision, ongoing quarterly earnings, macroeconomic data and FII trading activity are the major triggers that will drive stock markets this week, analysts said. Investors would also track global market trends and the movement in global oil prices for further cues. "This week, the focus will shift to global cues, particularly the US markets," Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd said.
In the Sensex pack, Mahindra & Mahindra tanked over 6 per cent after the company cut the prices of its SUV models to boost demand. Mahindra & Mahindra said its XUV700's fully-loaded AX7 range now starts at Rs 19.49 lakh, a price cut of over Rs 2 lakh. Tata Steel, Tata Consultancy Services, HCL Technologies, State Bank of India, JSW Steel, Tata Motors and Kotak Mahindra Bank were other losers.
From the Sensex basket, NTPC, Power Grid, IndusInd Bank, Tata Steel, Tata Motors, JSW Steel, Tech Mahindra and Larsen & Toubro were the biggest gainers. Bharti Airtel, Maruti, ICICI Bank and Asian Paints were the laggards.
In previews of Q2FY25 and beyond, industry analysts are expecting a turnaround for IT services. High teens earnings per share or EPS growth is expected for the next two-three financial years. The hopes are backed by deal wins of above $100 billion as at Q1FY25, up 16.6 per cent year-on-year ( Y-o-Y).
By no means do economists see the Reserve Bank of India stop at just a 25-bp cut. Some of the economists such as Soumyakanti Ghosh of State Bank of India are of the firm view that rates have room to fall by a total of 75 bps in the current financial year, starting with 25 bps in the August 7 policy.
Benchmark Sensex rose by 443 points to close at a new record high while Nifty settled above the 24,100 mark on Monday on buying in banking and IT shares in line with gains in Asian and European markets. The 30-share BSE Sensex settled higher by 443.46 points or 0.56 per cent at an all-time high of 79,476.19.
From the Sensex basket, Titan, Reliance Industries, Asian Paints, Tech Mahindra, IndusInd Bank, UltraTech Cement, Wipro and ITC were the major laggards. ICICI Bank, Infosys, Bajaj Finserv, Tata Steel, Axis Bank, Bajaj Finance, Nestle and Mahindra & Mahindra were among the major gainers.
Foreign investors continued their relentless selling in the Indian equity markets in August, offloading shares worth Rs 21,201 crore due to the unwinding of the yen carry trade, recession fears in the US and ongoing geopolitical conflicts. This came after an inflow of Rs 32,365 crore in July and Rs 26,565 crore in June, data with the depositories showed.
India is facing a challenging situation, where growth rate has slowed down significantly, yet inflation levels remain high. Early revision of policy rates would raise the risk of renewed currency depreciation pressures.
Most of the steep rate cuts announced might also not translate into bill savings for subscribers
How should you, as a consumer, be prepared for a rate cut, if any? Read on to find out more.
The central bank has lowered its policy rate twice so far in 2015.
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