"We have the toughest sanctions ever imposed. But on oil, we want to go a little bit slow because I don't want to drive the oil prices in the world up," Trump told reporters.
From the Sensex basket, Larsen & Toubro, Bajaj Finance, Axis Bank, State Bank of India, UltraTech Cement, Wipro, ICICI Bank, Infosys, HCL Technologies and Asian Paints were the major gainers. NTPC, JSW Steel and HDFC Bank were the laggards.
According to the 'American Express Business Travel Monitor' which tracks and analyses published airfares on a quarterly basis, 'although fares moderated in the fourth quarter, the influences of rising oil prices and economic growth in the region are too strong to keep prices steady'.
Despite the recovery to above $40 levels after hitting $28-29 in Jan, worries of over-supply in the face of weak demand remain.
With the earnings season drawing to a close, stock markets will take cues from global trends and foreign investors' trading activity this week, analysts said. The US FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) minutes will be the major highlight this week, experts said. "This week, there are fewer cues on the macro and micro fronts, as the Q1 earnings season has concluded.
Finance Minister P Chidambaram on Monday said the surge in international oil prices is a matter of grave concern and it was for the petroleum ministry to take a call on retail pricing of petroleum products.
Pushing a barrel of oil back to around $100 would require a reduction of production of about two million barrels a day - a cut that would fall predominantly on Saudi Arabia.
The policy review observed that the moderation in inflation, excluding food and fuel, that was witnessed in the first quarter of 2017-18 has "by and large, reversed".
Amid concerns over price rise, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Wednesday said inflation will come down to 6.5 per cent by March-end if the international oil prices soften and commodity prices do not rise further.
Modi made a strong case for a partnership between the producers and consumers in the oil market as it exists in other markets.
Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) on Tuesday reported halving of its March quarter net profit largely because of losses in the petrochemical business and shrinking margin after it announced a pre-election fuel price cut despite rising input costs. The net profit of Rs 4,837.69 crore in January-March compared to Rs 10,058.69 crore a year back and Rs 8,063.39 crore in the preceding October-December quarter, according to a stock exchange filing by the company.
The outcome of the Union Budget, quarterly earnings from corporates and global trends are the major factors to drive stock market sentiments this week, analysts said. Besides, the trading activity of foreign investors, the rupee-dollar trend and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude are also crucial aspects to watch out for.
Low fuel prices to help oil marketing and refining sectors but upstream players will stay under pressure.
The narrative on China is changing post the recent stimulus measures, and it will be hard for global investors to ignore the Chinese markets.
The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is the biggest event that would drive sentiments in the domestic stock market this week, besides a host of macroeconomic data from the global front and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. The Indian equity market had an exceptional last week, with both the Nifty and Sensex hitting their all-time high levels on Thursday.
The real benefits can be seen when prices stabilise, preferably at levels acceptable to both consumers and producers.
Indian Oil Corporation has approached the petroleum ministry with a proposal to raise oil prices by Rs 5.29 a litre and diesel by 4.54 a litre in line with the price band formula worked out by the government.\n\n
Price of international crude oil - the raw material for making petrol and diesel - dropped to a three-year low before marginally recovering but a revision in domestic petrol and diesel rates is likely only if lower rates are sustained, industry sources and officials said. Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures fell below $70 per barrel on Tuesday - the first time since December 2021 - but gained thereafter after Hurricane Francine hit crude supply in the Gulf of Mexico. Brent rose above $71 a barrel on Thursday while West Texas Intermediate advanced to trade near $68.
Crude oil price of $50 a barrel in the international market would pull down India's GDP growth by 0.4 per cent and push up inflation by 1.5 per cent, a FICCI study has said.
The dollar devaluation has seen revenue loss incurred by state-run oil firms on fuel sales trimming to about Rs 96 crore per day.
The escalation of conflict in the West Asian region is expected to push already high logistics costs besides hurting trade in sectors such as oil, electronics and agriculture, according to exporters. They said that insurance costs for exports to the countries directly involved in the war could also go up, which will impact Indian exporters' working capital. Think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) stated that the conflict is already hurting India's trade with countries like Israel, Jordan, and Lebanon.
Finance Minister P Chidambaram on Tuesday said that surging global oil prices may pull down India's economic growth by 0.5 per cent but expected stable interest rates to spur investment.
'Investors looking at the next 6-12 months can be certain that the Fed will maintain its easing cycle, and we expect the overall environment to be conducive for fixed income investments for portfolio diversification.'
'As matters stand, Russia and Saudi Arabia, two of the world's biggest oil producers, are set for a hard landing as they didn't diversify their economies as much as they should have when the oil prices were booming.'
Making sense of the international crude market is incredibly hard.
Savings for Indian refiners from purchasing Russian oil have decreased to a third of what they were in the years following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which triggered global crises, sanctions, and discounted Russian oil seeking buyers. Despite this, savings from importing cheap Russian oil were significant enough to help Indian refiners tide over frozen petrol and diesel pump prices.
The rupee has depreciated by 0.6 per cent so far in the current financial year.
"This year (2009-10), our WPI is low and I don't see any problem on the horizon which could destabilise us except oil prices which remain a question," said Rajya Sabha MP and former Reserve Bank Governor Bimal Jalan. On the high fiscal deficit, Jalan said he did not think stimulus packages posed a problem. On taxation, he said it would not be good for the country not to have a reasonable rate of tax on profit and dividend.
The Consumer Price Index-based inflation rose to 5.11% in January
State-owned fuel retailers are losing close to Rs 3 per litre on selling diesel while the profit on petrol has trimmed due to recent firming up in international oil prices, industry officials said detailing reasons for continuing to hold retail prices. Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL), who control roughly 90 per cent of India's fuel market, 'voluntarily' have not changed petrol, diesel and cooking gas (LPG) prices for almost two years now, resulting in losses when input cost was higher and profits when raw material prices were lower.
The task of Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley to keep inflation under check, even when the country reeled under severe drought for two years in a row, and reduce the current account deficit, was made easier by low crude oil prices.
Merrill Lynch warned that oil prices could fall as low as $25 a barrel next year if the recession affecting the US, Europe and Japan extended to China, the main driver of demand growth in commodity markets in recent years.
The country's GDP grew at the fastest pace in seven quarters at 7.7 per cent in the January-March period, retaining the fastest growing major economy tag on robust performance by manufacturing and service sectors as well as good farm output.
OPEC, which has oil reserves that constitute 80 percent of the total global reserves, is unwilling to increase output to bring down oil prices. This makes OPEC too responsible for the rising oil prices, apart from the weak dollar. OPEC has said that world oil demand this year is forecast to grow by 1.2 million barrels daily to an average of 87 million barrels per day. As OPEC's output remains insufficient to cover rising demand from Asian region, oil prices will tend to rise.
As global tensions put pressure on the cost of crude oil, sending petrol prices above 1 a litre across the UK, This is Money investment writer Philip Scott investigates how investors can profit from rising oil prices.
The US Fed interest rate decision, ongoing quarterly earnings, macroeconomic data and FII trading activity are the major triggers that will drive stock markets this week, analysts said. Investors would also track global market trends and the movement in global oil prices for further cues. "This week, the focus will shift to global cues, particularly the US markets," Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd said.
India's exports registered a steepest decline in 13-month falling 9.3 per cent in August to $34.71 billion due to global economic uncertainties, while the trade deficit soared to a 10-month of $29.65 billion. According to the government data released on Tuesday, imports increased by 3.3 per cent to $64.36 billion, which is a record high, due to a significant jump in the inbound shipments of gold and silver.
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