The US Fed interest rate decision, ongoing quarterly earnings, macroeconomic data and FII trading activity are the major triggers that will drive stock markets this week, analysts said. Investors would also track global market trends and the movement in global oil prices for further cues. "This week, the focus will shift to global cues, particularly the US markets," Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd said.
India's exports registered a steepest decline in 13-month falling 9.3 per cent in August to $34.71 billion due to global economic uncertainties, while the trade deficit soared to a 10-month of $29.65 billion. According to the government data released on Tuesday, imports increased by 3.3 per cent to $64.36 billion, which is a record high, due to a significant jump in the inbound shipments of gold and silver.
Rising crude oil prices along with hardening interest rates in the domestic market have taken a toll on India Inc's growth outlook in the first quarter of the current fiscal.
The drop in oil to around $50 a barrel this year has triggered steep cutbacks in production of US shale oil
Dr Nagesh Kumar, one of the three new MPC members, wanted the MPC to reduce the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%.
Global supply is staying in excess of demand.
Crude prices, which has become a big concern for the government fighting inflation, softened to about $104 to a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after touching $107 a barrel, its highest level since September 2008.
Saudi Arabia's deep pockets and a strong financial system could help the country to ride out a low-price environment in order to protect its market share.
A higher-than-expected consumer price inflation (CPI) print for March in the US has dashed hopes of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (US Fed) in June. Analysts now expect the US central bank to start cutting rates in September, provided inflation remains in check and oil prices remain supportive. The markets, analysts believe, partially factored in this possibility.
Surging oil prices are unlikely to restrain the strong economic growth in India and China, Haruhiko Kuroda, president, Asian Development Bank said.
Oil prices continued their rout on Tuesday with Brent crude and U.S. WTI both falling to their lowest in almost six years as a big OPEC producer stood by the group's decision not to cut output to tackle a glut in the market.
Global trends, macroeconomic data announcements and the start of the earnings season would be the major drivers for the equity markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Equity markets will remain closed on Thursday for Eid-Ul-Fitr. Trading activity of foreign investors, rupee-dollar trends and crude oil prices would also guide trends in markets.
The central bank is conducting a series of these meetings with individual banks as it prepares to announce the annual monetary and credit policy for the financial year 2011-12 on May 3.
Ahead of the Budget, the Survey made a case for gradual exit of stimulus provided to the industry.
'We expect market consolidation and recommend buying during market dips.'
As the oil moneybags get lighter, it will be increasingly difficult for Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states to continue to support incendiary radicals. And over time, there will be greater integration of Muslim life and culture into the "mainstream".
Oil prices hit two-and-a-half-year highs in Asian trade on Friday as violence continued to wrack the Middle East and threatened to spread to other bigger oil producers in the region, analysts said.
'As the markets are expected to remain jittery in the near term, we advise investors to use this opportunity to enter quality largecaps from a long-term perspective.'
India's Petroleum Minister Mani Shankar Aiyar has predicted that the 'oil bubble' will burst soon.\n\n
The ongoing oil price decline is mainly a result of oversupply in the global market
When oil prices are very high, cutting down the subsidy results in sharp increase in oil prices.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday invited President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to visit India and the Ukrainian leader said he would be happy to travel to the 'great' country.
Oil prices could reach $100 per barrel if there were "dramatic" developments in the Gulf or elsewhere, a leading oil official has said.
Leading industrialist, Mukesh Ambani,on Friday said the trend of rising energy prices is a matter of great concern and that it could rise further to three-digits going forward.
Communist Party India on Thursday asked the government and the public sector oil companies to share the burden of the surge in crude oil prices and expressed the desire to be consulted before any final decision on fuel pricing is taken.
Reliance Industries Ltd on Monday reported an almost flat March quarter net profit, amid a recovery in its core oil and petrochemicals business and sustained momentum across the consumer-facing telecom and retail businesses. RIL's net profit stood at Rs 18,951 crore, or Rs 28.01 per share, in the January-March quarter of the 2023-24 fiscal as compared to Rs 19,299 crore, or Rs 28.52 a share, a year ago, according to a company's stock exchange filing.
Contrary to expectations, global oil prices, which have touched a 21-year high, are unlikely to fall substantially even if oil producer cartel OPEC raises production, industry officials said on Thursday.
A resurgence in Saudi Arabian supplies of crude oil to India coupled with an attack on an Iraqi tanker in August carrying crude to Europe may result in improved bargaining power for India with West Asian and Russian suppliers for winter supplies. Shipments of Saudi oil rebounded in September from August, surging to the highest since March while Russian oil shipments rose marginally as Saudi Arabia tried to claw back market share in Asia, according to industry sources and ship tracking data.
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday said that the economy had enough resilience to absorb rise in global oil prices and said it is keeping a close watch on inflation.
US crude oil futures edged down on Tuesday after hitting an 8-week high of $82 a barrel on Monday.
Financials were the top losers while oil shares also declined amid weak crude oil prices.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have withdrawn Rs 25,305 crore from domestic markets since September. FPIs were net sellers in the first two months of 2023, but from March to August, they purchased equities worth Rs 1.7 trillion. This selling trend has caused the National Stock Exchange Nifty Index to decline by 3.2 per cent from its September highs. FPI selling initially began in September as profit-taking but intensified due to rising US bond yields and uncertainty regarding the rate hike trajectory.
Equity markets will take cues from global trends and trading activity of foreign investors, while in the latter part of the week the first quarter earnings from IT majors TCS and HCL Technologies would guide investor sentiments, analysts said. Markets may consolidate after the record rally last week, experts added. "On the domestic front, the Q1 earnings season begins this week. Key companies such as TCS and HCL Technologies will release their earnings on July 11 and 12, 2024, respectively.
More than half of the total subsidy provisioning, amounting to 54 per cent, is going towards food subsidy, which is estimated at Rs 184,220 crore for 2019-20 - a 7.5 per cent increase over the revised estimates for 2018-19.
Fears of an economic slowdown in the US, and a consequent spread of the crisis to Europe and other parts of the world, resulted in oil prices falling over 12 per cent since Monday, the largest weekly fall since early 2004.
Stocks in the automotive, financial, cement, metal, and hotel sectors are likely to benefit if the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) comes back to power for a third time. The key investment themes have been identified after analysing the Sankalp Patra - the party's manifesto for the next five years - released on Sunday.
"The prime minister is thinking of having a meeting of all political leaders and it could take place in the second week of next month," sources in the government said. While the agriculture scenario was comfortable spiralling crude oil prices in the international market was causing a concern, they said. Crude oil reached $96 a barrel mark early this month. However, it has come a notch lower now.
The finance ministry expects a broad-based moderation in inflationary pressures on the back of an anticipated reduction in food prices as a result of the uptick in summer sowing. The retail inflation rate remained stubbornly clung to the 5 per cent mark in seven of the past eight months. "Core inflation is trending downwards, indicating a broad-based moderation in price pressures... Driven by strong domestic growth and benign global commodity prices, core inflation is declining continuously.
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