Russia has welcomed India's decision to not support the price cap on Russian oil announced by G7 and its allies and offered it cooperation on leasing and building large-capacity ships to overcome the ban on insurance services and tanker chartering in the European Union and Britain to continue buying discounted oil. The offer came as Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak held a meeting with the Indian Ambassador to Moscow, Pavan Kapoor, on Friday. "The Deputy Prime Minister welcomed India's decision not to support the price cap on Russian oil, which was imposed on December 5 by the G7 countries and their allies," the Russian foreign ministry said in a statement.
While the four largest listed paint companies have seen marginal negative returns, the S&P BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) and the National Stock Exchange Nifty FMCG indices have delivered a solid 16 per cent return during the same period. Initially, volume growth and reduced costs bolstered the sector's sentiment, but brokerages have grown cautious due to increased competitive pressures.
The reference case forecast takes into account the dire state of the world economy and expects global demand to fall by 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2009. It also does not foresee any further compliance by OPEC countries with the quota reductions announced last December. Dated Brent was expected to have average $45 per barrel in the first quarter, rising to $50.4 per barrel in the second and $51.8 per barrel in the third, then up to $53.4 per barrel.
The market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies soared to an all-time high of Rs 406.52 lakh crore on Monday thanks to a rally in equities where the BSE Sensex climbed over 1 per cent. The 30-share BSE Sensex rallied 941.12 points or 1.28 per cent to finish at 74,671.28. During the day, it zoomed 990.99 points or 1.34 per cent to 74,721.15.
Qatar will lead growth in the region with around 8.7 per cent, while growth will be about six per cent each in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, 4.5 per cent in the United Arab Emirates, 4.2 per cent in Oman and 3.1 per cent in Bahrain, the report by Kuwait-based Gulf Investment Company said.
Among major Sensex movers, ITC rose the most by 1.70 per cent, Wipro by 1.43 per cent, Tech Mahindra by 1.36 per cent and Nestle India by 1.27 per cent. Other gainers included HCL Tech, Asian Paints and Reliance. On the other hand, ICICI Bank, NTPC, UltraTech Cement and Tata Steel traded with a loss of up to 0.82 per cent.
Foreign flows into Indian equities are expected to pause in the short to medium term, say analysts. The outlook is influenced by multiple factors, including rising oil prices, actions from global central banks, climbing bond yields, and the dollar index gaining prominence. "Valuations appear rich with the markets at record highs.
With the prediction of an above normal monsoon in 2024, the government is expecting food prices to come down, the finance ministry's monthly economic report for March has said. The report, released on Thursday, said robust foreign inflows and comfortable trade deficits were expected to keep the rupee within a comfortable range. "Further easing of food prices is on the anvil as IMD (India Meteorological Department) has predicted above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season, which is likely to lead to higher production, assuming good spatial and temporal distribution of the rainfall," the monthly report, released by the Department of Economic Affairs, said.
Government's fuel subsidy estimate was based on crude oil at $70.
Retail inflation eased to an 11-month low of 4.83 per cent in April as prices of some kitchen items declined though overall food basket firmed up marginally, according to a government data released on Monday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based retail inflation was 4.85 per cent in March. It was 4.7 per cent in April 2023.
The inflation was 11.80 per cent a week ago. The index for fuel prices declined by 1.1 per cent on account of lower prices of naphtha, aviation turbine fuel and furnace oil.
Stock markets will be largely driven by global trends in the absence of any major domestic triggers this week, say analysts. The trading activity of foreign investors, global crude oil prices and rupee-dollar movement will also influence market movement, they said. "Anticipating a period of consolidation in the absence of clear global cues, the market's trajectory will likely hinge on the movement of the US bond yields, the dollar index, and crude oil prices, as well as institutional flows.
Crude oil's long price slide might be ending, feel some experts. Last Friday, the price of Brent crude, seen as a benchmark for what India uses, saw a low of $75.3 a barrel - it is now trading around $79. The fall has been nearly a third from its high seen in June, only five months earlier.
Spiralling oil prices will exert huge pressure on India's balance sheet of inflows and outflows of resources resulting in a three-fold increase in the current account deficit to 4.7 per cent of the country's GDP in fiscal ending 2009, a Goldman Sachs report said on Wednesday.
Oil prices fell from their two-year highs on Tuesday, as pressure mounted against an immediate attack on Iraq, lessening fears of a possible disruption of oil supplies from the world's eighth-largest exporter.
Airline stocks have been soaring following a steep decline in crude oil prices and sustained passenger traffic. Analysts have particularly turned bullish on the stocks of InterGlobe Aviation and SpiceJet. On December 20, shares of InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) hit a record high of Rs 3,009 on the BSE, having surged 43.24 per cent year-to-date (YTD).
Retail inflation declined to a five-month low of 4.85 per cent in March mainly due to cooling food prices, inching towards the Reserve Bank's target of 4 per cent, according to official data released on Friday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was 5.09 per cent in February and 5.66 per cent in March 2023. Previously, CPI-based inflation was the lowest at 4.87 per cent in October 2023.
India's economic growth will be above 6 per cent in the current fiscal as the country has managed to strengthen its macroeconomic stability and performance even in a period of large global shocks, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Member Ashima Goyal said on Monday. Goyal further said that a global slowdown reducing India's export growth, geopolitics fueling oil and food prices, and erratic weather are some of the continuing risks that the country faces. "India has managed to strengthen its macroeconomic stability and performance even in a period of large global shocks.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is unlikely to cut the benchmark interest rate at its upcoming monetary policy review meeting, taking place soon after the announcement of the Lok Sabha election results, amid inflation challenges, said experts. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may also refrain from rate cut as economic growth is picking up, notwithstanding the elevated interest rate of 6.5 per cent (repo) prevailing since February 2023. The meeting of the Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das headed MPC is scheduled for June 5 to 7.
Noting that oil prices had gone down after the BJP-led government came to power in May 2014, before they went up, Prasad said it is a problem whose solution is not in its hands.
...to fund the revenue gap. Of the gross market borrowing of Rs 14.13 trillion estimated for FY25, Rs 7.5 trillion, or 53 per cent, is planned to be borrowed in the first half.
The gold and crude oil prices, which have risen to records this year, may ease a little if the US central bank Federal Reserve cut rates at its meeting on Tuesday, an analyst said.The Fed is scheduled to meet today to consider revision of interest rates. The US banking sector regulator has already cut the rate at which it lends to banks by 0.25 per cent to 3.25 per cent at an emergency weekend meeting on Monday.
A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive because it raises the cost for imports for most of the world's countries
India imports about 25 million tonnes of oil from Iraq each year.
'The main worry is lots of new investors coming into the markets in order to make a quick buck/easy money.' 'Those things are happening again and have happened in the past as well.' 'All that has led to problems.' 'We are not there yet, but will get there eventually.'
The Reserve Bank of India's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data and global trends will drive investors' sentiment this week, with markets hoping to continue the positive momentum after ending FY24 on a buoyant note, analysts said. In addition, the trading activity of foreign investors, the rupee-dollar trend and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude would also influence trading in equity markets. The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 14,659.83 points or 24.85 per cent in the 2023-24.
The government has cut the windfall profit tax on crude oil produced in the country while the levy on exports of diesel and ATF has been hiked, an official notification said. The tax, levied in the form of special additional excise duty or SAED, on domestically produced crude oil was reduced to Rs 6,700 per tonne from Rs 7,100 a tonne. SAED on the export of diesel was increased to Rs 6 per litre from Rs 5.50 a litre and on jet fuel or ATF to Rs 4 per litre from Rs 2, the notification said.
This is the second hike in excise duty in less than two weeks as the government looks to make use of the slump in oil prices to shore up resources.
Global trends, trading activity of foreign investors and movement of oil benchmark Brent crude would dictate terms in the domestic markets this week, analysts said. Equity markets, which fell nearly 3 per cent last week, may face volatile trends amid the monthly derivatives expiry on Thursday. "This week marks the September month Futures and Options (F&O) expiry, which is expected to bring about volatility in the market," said Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
The government has to take a call on reducing or retaining the excise rate.
The revised projection comes after a 17% rise in the April-June.
Benchmark stock indices Sensex and Nifty fell for the third day running on Friday due to weak trends in global markets and soaring crude oil prices. Foreign fund outflows also weighed on investor sentiments amid strengthening US bond yields which are nearing 5 per cent for the first time since 2007. The 30-share BSE Sensex fell 231.62 points or 0.35 per cent to settle at 65,397.62.
Many individual states experienced higher inflation than the all-India figures during the financial year 2023-24 (FY24). Retail inflation figures in Telangana, Haryana, Rajasthan and Dadra and Nagar Haveli have been higher than national numbers every month of this financial year, shows a Business Standard analysis of state-wise figures, after the March inflation data was released on Friday. Experts noted that persistent high food inflation along with differences in the weights of rural and urban indices plays into the regional variation in inflation rates.
The government has brought back the windfall profit tax on domestically produced crude oil after international prices firmed up while the levy on export of diesel has been cut to nil, according to an official order. The levy on crude oil produced by companies such as Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) is now Rs 6,400 per tonne with effect from Wednesday, the order dated April 18 said. At the last revision on April 4, windfall tax on domestically produced crude oil was cut to nil as international oil prices dipped below $75 per barrel.
US crude was down 25 cents at $52.08.
From the Sensex basket, Tata Motors, State Bank of India, Tata Steel, Power Grid, NTPC, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance and Asian Paints were the major laggards.
Selling in index heavyweights, including Infosys, TCS, ICICI Bank and Reliance Industries, dragged the benchmark indices into the negative for the second straight session, analysts said. Among the Sensex shares, Asian Paints fell the most by 3.9 per cent as analysts expressed concerns over rising competition in the domestic paints market following the entry of Aditya Birla group company Grasim Industries into the paints segment. IT shares Infosys, TCS, HCL Tech, Wipro and Tech Mahindra continued to slide amid inflation concerns in the US market.
Among the Sensex firms, Wipro jumped over 6 per cent, the most among the frontline companies. HCL Technologies, Tata Motors, Maruti, Tata Steel, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro and JSW Steel were the other major winners. State Bank of India, Bajaj Finance, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank and IndusInd Bank were among the laggards.
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