Trade deals ease risks for Indian equities, but weak demand and stretched valuations raise questions over whether optimism -- especially in smallcaps -- can turn into a sustained bull run, points out Debashis Basu.
Global index provider MSCI has announced the addition of four Indian companies-including Fortis Healthcare and Paytm - to its Global Standard indices. According to Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research, each of these companies is expected to see passive inflows exceeding $400 million. Shares of Paytm rose 4.3 per cent on Thursday, while Fortis Healthcare dipped 1.1 per cent.
You can't be the second-most expensive market in the world and deliver just 10 per cent EPS growth, points out Akash Prakash.
The Indian equity markets will soon account for over a fifth of a key emerging market (EM) benchmark tracked by funds with assets exceeding $500 billion. This development is expected to funnel as much as $3 billion into the domestic markets. Following the latest review undertaken by global index provider MSCI, India's weighting in the MSCI EM index will surpass 20 per cent for the first time, narrowing its gap with the current top-weighted China to fewer than 400 basis points.
Alternative Investment Funds (AIFs) with a lock-in period performed better than the ones that allow investors to withdraw capital at any time. Close-ended schemes had a median return of 5.62 per cent in December, according to data from industry tracker PMSBazaar. The median returns for open-ended schemes were 3.91 per cent
Morgan Stanley Capital International has added Maruti Udyog to its India index with effect from August 29.
Mutual funds (MFs) are lining up distinguished new fund offerings (NFOs) for the next financial year to win over investors after a lukewarm response to product launches in the 2022-23 financial year (FY23). NFOs drew a lukewarm response in FY23 as launches were mostly in the passive debt space, which has a comparatively lower popularity among retail investors. The limited launches in equity space also failed to rake in huge sums due to subdued investor sentiments in a volatile market.
'This resilience should be viewed as reflecting the strength of the structural story.'
Despite the wobble in the markets over the past few weeks, Indian equities remain expensive as measured by several yardsticks. India's market capitalisation-to-GDP ratio, for instance, has touched a multi-year high. The ratio is currently at 116 per cent, based on the FY22E gross domestic product (GDP) number, above its long-term average of 79 per cent.
Life Insurance Corp of India (LIC), which is aiming to launch its initial public offering (IPO) next month, is set to alter the pecking order of top listed companies in the country. Depending upon where the government prices the IPO, the stock could end up becoming India's most valuable company on the first day and even get fast-tracked into global benchmark indices given its sheer size. According to market sources, LIC's IPO is targeting to mop up Rs 63,000 crore and Rs 75,000 crore.
Capital markets regulator Sebi has permitted mutual funds to again invest in foreign stocks within the aggregate mandated limit of $7 billion for the industry. This came in the wake of a major correction in global markets that brought down the valuation of international stocks. In January, Sebi had asked mutual fund houses to stop taking fresh subscriptions in schemes investing in overseas stocks. The directive to stop subscription was mainly on account of the mutual fund industry crossing the mandated limit of $7 billion for overseas investments.
Lump sum investments in equity and hybrid schemes of mutual funds (MFs) declined to Rs 17,900 crore in October - the lowest since January 2021. The fall in lump sum investments comes even as flows through systematic investment plans (SIPs) rose to a new all-time high of Rs 13,000 crore in October. The latest lump sum tally is just a third of the peak inflow of Rs 49,700 crore in July 2021.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) continue to cut their shareholding in both Housing Development Finance Corp (HDFC) and HDFC Bank. As per latest data, during the June 2022-23 quarter (Q1FY23), FPIs held 68.1 per cent and 65.96 per cent, respectively, in HDFC and HDFC Bank. Overseas shareholding is down 111/406 basis points (bps) and 260/412 bps on the quarter-on-quarter (QoQ)/year-to-date (YTD) basis in HDFC and HDFC Bank, respectively.
'Yet the market didn't do all that badly because it was cushioned by domestic inflows.'
Illustration: Uttam Ghosh/Rediff.com After a brief respite at the year's start, FPIs have dumped shares worth more than $5.7 billion (Rs 42,596 crore), taking the cumulative net outflows since October to $10.5 billion (Rs 78,466 crore), and adding to the volatility on the bourses. The figure would have been a lot worse had it not been for net purchases to the tune of $5.7 billion in the primary market from October to date.
The deluge of offerings in the primary market, a muted results season and increasing talks of a Fed taper may quicken the pace of overseas investors selling Indian equities in the near term. The next few weeks may see a dozen companies tap the market for initial public offerings and raise about Rs 30,000 crore. These include the likes of Zomato, Glenmark Life Sciences, Utkarsh Small Finance Bank and Seven Islands Shipping.
If a retail investor wants exposure to a healthcare ETF, it should be a part of his satellite portfolio, suggests Sanjay Kumar Singh.
Materials and utilities were the worst-performing sectors in March.
Except for September quarter, which had net inflows of $196 million, all other quarters had outflows.
Mutual funds (MFs) are set to be net sellers of Indian equities for the first time in the past seven financial years, having sold stocks worth about Rs 1.27 trillion so far in 2020-21 (FY21), making it the highest net sales on record in a financial year. MFs had been net buyers in the previous six financial years, including purchases of over Rs 1.41 trillion in FY18, Rs 88,152 crore in FY19, and Rs 91,814 crore in FY20. The last time they offloaded Indian equities was in FY14, when they net sold stocks worth Rs 21,159 crore. In contrast, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have ramped up buying in FY21, purchasing more than Rs 2.6 trillion worth of shares.
Singapore Exchange plans to launch more India-based products to provide opportunities for global investors interested in tapping the Indian market.
The bank says valuations are still high, foreign mutual funds are still 'very overweight' on Indian shares.
While Airtel has hiked the limit to 100 per cent in principle, the company needs to address some issues on overseas investment limits in subsidiaries, before the changes come into effect. Until then, the cap on foreign ownership will remain at 49 per cent under the automatic route.
It is advisable to avoid a fund until it develops a track record.
According to global equity research firm CLSA, the Indian market is still trading with a 'premium', although it has come down considerably.
Foreign investors highlight growing risk to the India story.
The proposal to increase public float, hike income tax surcharge, move to tax share buybacks and lack of stimulus to shore up economic growth has hurt investor sentiment.
Once a shining jewel, India 's sparkle has dimmed in recent months.
Despite a slowing economy, the Budget does not envisage any major stimulus through the budgeted fiscal deficit figures, said Goldman Sachs.
The trade-war between the US and China is prompting investors to flee from risky assets, such as equities, to safe-haven bets, such as gold and treasuries
Though the outcome of the general elections will offer a short-term boost to the market, a sustained rally will be determined by the economic data, according to a JP Morgan Asset Management report.
Tata Consultancy Services, the $73 billion IT group, is India's biggest company by market value and four times the size of any other listed Tata entity
Experts said concerns over the Union Budget, too, had weighed on the market performance.
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GEM fund managers more overweight on India than ever before says Bofa-ML report.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs)' stake in Infosys is nearing historic highs. During the quarter ended September, they bought 6.38 million Infosys shares for Rs 2,236 crore, raising their stake 1.1 per cent, data show.
Most sought-after market of the past few years doesn't feature among top bets in Asia, emerging markets
Analystsare showing optimism in Sensex EPS growth after double digit growth in the second quarter of current year.
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