The IMD defines a normal monsoon as one which delivers between 96 and 104 per cent of the 50-year average rainfall for the season.
It would be larger than even in the pandemic year of 2020-2021, notes Mahesh Vyas.
Within six months, outlets carrying Vicks jumped from 60,000 pharmacies to 750,000 general stores. The trade boycott collapsed. Consumers were happy, finding Vicks now at every street corner. A fascinating excerpt from Gurcharan Das's Another Sort of Freedom.
The share of women workers in registered factories submitting annual returns - working more than the statutorily-mandated maximum limit of 48 hours in a week - increased to a 11-year high of 33.6 per cent in 2019, shows the latest annual data released by the labour bureau. In comparison, only 27.9 per cent male workers worked more than the statutorily-mandated hours. Earlier in 2008, 39.2 per cent women workers had worked more than the prescribed work time.
Any narrative against the Dravidian model may impact the BJP's prospects in Tamil Nadu. This may explain why the BJP in Tamil Nadu is placing more emphasis on corruption allegations against the DMK, even as the party focuses nationally on the Sanatana controversy.
Growth in India is expected to slow to 6.3 per cent in FY 2023/24 (April-March), a 0.3 percentage point downward revision from January, the World Bank said Tuesday but noted there is an unexpected resilience in private consumption and investment and robust growth in the services. The World Bank made these points in its latest edition of Global Economic Prospects according to which global growth is projected to decelerate from 3.1 per cent in 2022 to 2.1 per cent in 2023. In Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs) other than China, growth is set to slow to 2.9 per cent this year from 4.1 per cent last year. These forecasts reflect broad-based downgrades.
India has the best hiring outlook globally, second only to Brazil, with 54 per cent of companies surveyed planning to hire in the December quarter as against 51 per cent in the September quarter, according to a report by global staffing firm ManpowerGroup. The report titled "ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey" showed that India has the strongest net employment outlook for the December quarter in the Asia-Pacific region, followed by China (46 per cent), and Australia (38 per cent). The global net employment outlook in the December quarter would stand at 30 per cent, down by three percentage points from the June-September quarter, yet six percentage points higher than the same period last year, the staffing firm said.
Claims of a spike in poverty and inequality in India during the Covid-19 pandemic are patently false as such claims are based on uncomparable different surveys, according to a paper co-authored by eminent economist Arvind Panagariya. The paper also noted that inequality fell in the country during Covid years, both in rural and urban areas as well as nationally. Panagariya, Columbia University Professor and former vice chairman of NITI Aayog and Vishal More of Intelink Advisors, New Delhi have co-authored a detailed paper 'Poverty and Inequality in India: Before and After Covid-19'.
'Revision of the base year for both CPI and GDP are long overdue.' 'The basic data that went into the 2011-2012 series were mainly from surveys done in 2011 or earlier.' 'We have since seen the emergence of new sectors like platform-based work and online marketing.' 'The employment surveys and the consumption surveys need to reflect these adequately.'
Union Labour Minister Bhupender Yadav has exuded confidence that four labour codes, which would bring another wave of reforms, will soon be implemented as around 90 per cent of states have already come out with draft rules. In 2019 and 2020, 29 central labour laws were amalgamated, rationalised and simplified into four labour codes, viz, the Code on Wages, 2019; the Industrial Relations Code, 2020; the Code on Social Security, 2020; and the Occupational Safety, Health & Working Conditions Code, 2020, noted the Survey. During an interaction, Yadav told reporters that around 90 per cent of the states have already published draft rules on four labour codes and he expects the four legislations would become operational soon.
India's unemployment rose to a three-month high in March to 7.8 per cent as the country's labour markets deteriorated, according to data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). Unemployment rate in the country surged in December 2022 to 8.30 per cent but declined in January to 7.14 per cent. It edged up again in February to 7.45 per cent, the CMIE data released on Saturday showed. During March, the unemployment rate in urban areas was at 8.4 per cent while in the rural areas it was at 7.5 per cent.
Tourism is badly affected. Entire apple orchards have been washed away. 2 million people are threatened with loss of livelihood.
In the jobs created in 2022, the share of those in the age group 18-25 increased to at least a five-year high of 56 per cent. A Business Standard analysis of the monthly Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) payroll data shows in 2018 the share of youths among the new EPFO subscribers was 50.9 per cent. The National Statistical Office is releasing the monthly EPFO payroll data since April 2018 as part of the government's effort to track formal-sector employment by using payrolls as an instrument.
Never mind work-life balance: this generation spends more time on the job than ever before.
Fitch on Tuesday affirmed India's sovereign rating at 'BBB-' with a stable outlook, on robust growth and resilient external finances, but said weak public finances remain a challenge. India's rating has been unchanged at 'BBB-', which is the lowest investment grade, since August 2006. "Fitch Ratings has affirmed India's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BBB-' with a Stable Outlook," it said in a statement, adding strong growth potential is a key supporting factor for the sovereign rating.
Billionaire Bill Gates, in a 2019 interview, supported bringing back a regulation in the US to require the super-rich to pay a 55 per cent tax when they inherit their family fortune. Proponents of an inheritance or estate tax say it reduces inequality and creates a meritocratic society by chipping away at the enormous advantages the children of the wealthiest families enjoy by an accident of birth. Many large economies levy such a tax on their richest citizens; India does not.
The forthcoming budget needs to delay fiscal consolidation, instead should focus more on supporting the pandemic battered-economy and boost consumption demand by offering income tax soaps and cutting fuel taxes, says a report. In a pre-budget report, India Ratings said it expects the new budget to consolidate and strengthen the plan set out in the last budget, rather than trying out new things by continue with the revenue and capital expenditure pattern of FY'22 to provide stability and consolidation to the past/ongoing efforts, and to focus on boosting demand by generating employment opportunities in areas/sectors that have been impacted more by the pandemic. The report therefore expects the finance minister to delay fiscal consolidation and make it to be a gradual and calibrated process, thus ensuring the necessary fiscal support that the economy needs is available till the recovery acquires its own momentum.
'For the common man, the economic conditions are not going to get better.'
The state's revenue receipts might not afford various freebies announced by the parties, unless revenue deficit and hence fiscal deficit is widened.
'A microcosm of India, inclusive and welcoming'. For years, Pragati Maidan was the centre of Delhi's social life.
As China faces a scenario of negative population growth, the government has started to force its citizens to marry early and have at least three children each.
Both are finding it difficult to sell one each of their plants -- Chennai Maraimalai Nagar (Ford) and Talegaon near Pune (GM) -- and are finding the road blocked by employee severance snarl-ups, report Sohini Das and Shine Jacob.
Microsoft chairman and CEO Satya Nadella on Tuesday said there is a tremendous momentum in cloud adoption, as he termed cloud a "big game changer". Nadella, who is currently in India, addressed Microsoft Future Ready Leadership Summit in Mumbai on Tuesday. He is also scheduled to visit Delhi and Bengaluru this week, and will be meeting key customers, startups, developers, educators and students during his India visit.
'India's manufacturing will take 10-15 years to catch up with China.'
Indian economy is expected to grow 10.5 per cent or more in the current fiscal, Niti Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar said on Thursday. Speaking at a virtual conference organised by the Public Affairs Forum of India (PAFI), he also said that modernisation of the retail sector is very much on the cards. "India Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for both manufacturing and services has shown a very smart uptick last month. "This (Indian economy) will strengthen even further," he said. "I expect Indian economy to grow 10.5 per cent or higher in FY 22," he noted.
Happily, it does not require the world to hold a mirror up for us. We can look at ourselves and understand easily if we choose to be honest about where we find ourselves three quarters of a century after Independence, asserts Aakar Patel.
Six states out of 22 major states and Union Territories (UTs) generated fewer formal jobs for the youth in the September quarter than they did in the corresponding quarter a year ago, a Business Standard analysis of the data released by the Employees Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) shows. States like Punjab (-12.4 per cent), Himachal Pradesh (-10.3 per cent), Jharkhand (- 7.2 per cent), Assam (-3.7 per cent), Gujarat (-3.4 per cent) and Rajasthan (-.1.1 per cent) saw further decline in the number of net new subscribers in the second quarter (Q2) of FY23 compared to the last year. The analysis did not include northeastern states, except for Assam. This is crucial as the subscribers in the 18-28 age group are seen as first-timers in the labour market, thus reflecting the robustness of the job market.
Hosabale blamed the "faulty' economic policies of the earlier governments for the "ills" in the economy.
Why did Karnataka's economic prosperity fail to influence the nature of electoral promises made by political parties in the run-up to the assembly elections? asks A K Bhattacharya.
The return of the unemployment rate to pre-lockdown times is not worth celebrating because it is more a reflection of a shrinking labour force than a decline in the count of the unemployed, observes Mahesh Vyas.
The Indian economy is likely to grow at over 7 per cent in the current fiscal year, former Niti Aayog vice chairman Arvind Panagariya said on Wednesday, while observing that the growth rate should sustain next year too provided the forthcoming Budget does not have any negative surprises. Panagariya further said recessionary fears have been around for a while but so far neither the US nor the EU has gone into recession. "From the viewpoint of India, in terms of headwinds originating abroad, the worst is probably behind us," he told PTI.
The fall in the employment rate translated into a 2.6 million fall in absolute employment between December 2022 and March 2023. Most of this fall was in March 2023.
India's consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation could ease in the coming months thanks to the arrival of kharif crops, lower international commodity prices, and a pass through of lower input costs to consumers, the finance ministry said in its Monthly Economic Review (MER) for October, which was released on Thursday. The MER, however, warned that the global macroeconomic situation remained precarious and a recession in many advanced economies would impact India's exports. "Easing international commodity prices and new Kharif arrival are set to dampen inflationary pressures in the coming months.
'80% of the rural and urban population don't have enough purchasing power.'
'It is building the country's infrastructure, and delivering it very efficiently.'
'The power sector accounts for much of the financial burden of state governments in India.'
Undeterred by travel restrictions being put in place in anticipation of a third-wave of Covid-19 pandemic, there has been a steady growth in overseas job searches by Indians with the US, Canada, the Middle East and the UK topping the list, according to a report. The search activity from India for jobs in other countries was highest between November 2019 and April 2020, where it witnessed a 72 per cent jump, but it declined sharply after the second wave of Covid-19 hit the world, forcing nations to reinforce travel restrictions, global job site Indeed said in a report. However, soon after the world recovered from the second wave of the pandemic, job searches for overseas opportunities picked up and continued to remain steady, it stated.
Some of India's largest companies have seen a slowdown in the growth of temporary, contract and casual jobs, as compared to the increase in their total workforce. The absolute number of such jobs is up 30 per cent between financial year 2017-18 and 2021-22 (FY18-22), shows an analysis of data collated from the annual reports of S&P BSE 100 companies. Forty-eight firms were considered for the final analysis based on the availability of uniform data across the last five years. In comparison, the total workforce numbers are up 36 per cent in the same period.
What's different this time is that global financial stress -- which has its genesis in four policy choices made in recent years -- is juxtaposed with a more resilient real economy, observes Sajjid Z Chinoy, chief India economist at J P Morgan.
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