Strong macroeconomic headwinds causing turbulence in the $245-billion Indian IT industry are yet to calm down. Top Indian IT services companies are likely to post a decline or just marginal growth in sequential revenue in Q1FY24 because of a soft discretionary spending environment. Though the first quarter is seasonally strong for IT firms, "June 2023 will be an exception", according to analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities.
The stock of the retail chain Avenue Supermarts (Dmart) was the biggest loser in the BSE 100 Index shedding 4.35 per cent on Thursday and added to these losses on Monday by falling an additional 1.3 per cent. The Street was reacting to lower than expected operational performance by the company in the March quarter. The country's largest listed retailer by market capitalisation reported a 20 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in its top line to Rs 10,337 crore.
IT services firms' revenue growth in the fourth quarter will be affected by macro-driven headwinds, lower working-days, and the fact of the three-month period being low season. Analysts are expecting FY24 growth to be muted. Revenue growth will decline 600-700 basis points to 10-12 per cent for FY24, said a CRISIL Ratings report. The 10-12 per cent growth rate is a fall from the 18-20 per cent expected in FY23 and around 19 per cent growth in FY22, the highest in eight years, said the CRISIL Ratings report.
In the face of tax blow, brokerages remain sanguine about the prospects of asset management companies (AMCs). A sharp correction in the shares of AMCs over the past three months factors in most of the negatives and turned valuations attractive, observe analysts. In its latest report, Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE) has upgraded HDFC AMC to 'add' (from 'reduce') and reprised 'add' and 'buy' ratings on the rest of the listed AMCs - Nippon, UTI, and Aditya Birla Sun Life.
Petrol and diesel prices were hiked by 80 paise a litre each on Saturday, the fourth increase in five days as oil firms passed on to consumers the spike in cost of raw material. Petrol in Delhi will now cost Rs 98.61 per litre as against Rs 97.81 previously while diesel rates have gone up from Rs 89.07 per litre to Rs 89.87, according to a price notification of state fuel retailers. All the four increases since the ending of a four-and-half-month long hiatus in rate revision on March 22, have been of 80 paise a litre.
HDFC Bank Q4 review: HDFC Bank's January-March quarter (Q4) results, for financial year 2022-23 (FY23), brought no cheer to investors as elevated costs, and merger-related uncertainties continue to dent the sentiment. Moreover, analysts fear that merger-related costs may put pressure on margins and cost to income ratio in the near-term, while the return on equity could moderate owing to low leverage of the parent. Analysts, therefore, opine that the stock's re-rating may be some time away. "While the risk of a de-rating on a standalone basis appears to be quite low given that the business performance is holding up well, we believe a re-rating in the stock would happen as and when more clarity emerges on the smooth transition (merger)," said a report by Sharekhan.
Assets under management of India-dedicated funds have slid 20 per cent in the year to November to $35.2 billion.
Given the uncertain macroeconomic conditions, most brokerages have turned slightly cautious on the pace of growth in State Bank of India's (SBI's) earnings going ahead. While they don't see any significant risk arising for now, its sheer balance sheet size and systematic importance has nudged them to cut earnings estimates for fiscal year 2023-24 (FY24) and 2024-25 (FY25) up to 5 per cent. India's largest state-owned bank, on Thursday, reported standalone net profit of Rs 16,694.51 crore for Q4FY23.
Bank of Baroda Q4 results: Key brokerages have raised their target prices on Bank of Baroda after the state-owned lender posted better-than-expected March quarter (Q4FY23) results. Analysts now see up to 29 per cent upside in the stock from a one-year perspective as they believe BoB is well-placed among the large public banks with nearly all key business metrics moving closer to the top-tier banks. Valuations, too, remain attractive despite steady strong quarterly performances.
It may be a little early to cheer the recovery in the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) space as a deceleration in discretionary demand, after the festival season, may offset fragile rural recovery, analysts have cautioned. "The overall demand environment for staples remains muted, while discretionary demand trends have seen some deceleration after the festival season. "We believe margins in staples have bottomed out, but we expect only a gradual uptick with the ongoing softening in raw material prices.
Slowing growth and execution challenges for Cognizant (CTSH) may well allow Infosys to overtake the former after a decade. Cognizant had marched ahead of Infosys in terms of revenue in the first quarter of financial year 2012-13. The Nasdaq-listed IT services firm's performance in Q3 and the guidance for Q4 and full-year 2022 suggest that it could take time for Cognizant to see the expected improvement in performance from its decision to restructure.
Petrol price on Monday was hiked by 30 paise a litre and diesel by 35 paise, taking the total increase in rates in the last one week to Rs 4-4.10 per litre. Petrol in Delhi will now cost Rs 99.41 per litre as against Rs 99.11 previously while diesel rates have gone up from Rs 90.42 per litre to Rs 90.77, according to a price notification of state fuel retailers. Rates have been increased across the country and vary from state to state depending upon the incidence of local taxation.
Move can also bring a huge change in the way business is done in India, where firms use multiple current accounts, often for even individual projects, making them difficult to monitor.
Petrol price on Sunday was hiked by 50 paise a litre and diesel by 55 paise, taking the total increase in rates since resumption of daily price revision less than a week back to Rs 3.70-3.75 per litre. Petrol in Delhi will now cost Rs 99.11 per litre as against Rs 98.61 previously while diesel rates have gone up from Rs 89.87 per litre to Rs 90.42, according to a price notification of state fuel retailers. Rates have been increased across the country and vary from state to state depending upon the incidence of local taxation.
After a sharp correction over the last few months, analysts seem to be turning cautiously optimistic on the information technology (IT) sector and suggest there could be trading opportunities in select counters despite revenue and growth concerns that still plague the sector. "IT stocks valuations have corrected 17 per cent-49 per cent and stock prices have corrected 9 - 42 per cent since mid-December 2021. Nifty IT index valuation has corrected by 27 per cent and price by 21 per cent. "About two quarters ago, we made a case that valuation drivers have peaked.
However, rural demand continued to remain a concern for FMCG companies during the quarter.
Given that there has been no negative news flow around Zomato, analysts believe it's time to lap up the shares at lower levels.
After new-age tech companies reported better-than-expected June quarter (Q1FY23) results, analysts said it will be a long road to recovery for their respective businesses and the stock prices. Moreover, brokerages differ on whether it is the right time to own these stocks. The common thread, however, that runs across most brokerages is Zomato, where they suggest buying the stock with the one-year target price ranging between Rs 60 - 115, translating into an upside of around 9 - 109 per cent from the current levels. The company's gross order value (GOV) of food delivery jumped 10 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 42 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in Q1, aided largely by growth in volume, and mild growth in average order value (AOV) at 1-2 per cent. The company also broke even on an adjusted Ebitda basis during the quarter.
Riding on an improved show across parameters, TVS Motor (TVS) outperformed larger two-wheeler peers Hero MotoCorp (Hero) and Bajaj Auto (Bajaj) during the September (Q2 of FY23) quarter. The Chennai-based firm, which has the most-diversified portfolio among two-wheeler majors, posted a 28 per cent jump in revenues. This compares to 18 per cent growth for Bajaj Auto and single-digit uptick for Hero MotoCorp.
Corporate revenues will decline for a third consecutive quarter in March on a YoY basis - one of the worst shows by these companies in many years.
Foreign fund flows into India have reduced significantly as the country witnessed inflows of just $40 million in the last three months, the weakest among its emerging market peers, says a report.
After hike in rates of petrol, diesel and LPG, the prices of CNG and cooking gas piped to household kitchens (PNG) in the national capital were hiked on Thursday by Re 1. CNG price in NCT of Delhi has been increased to Rs 59.01 per kg from Rs 58.01, according to the information posted on the website of Indraprastha Gas Ltd - the firm which retails CNG and piped cooking gas in the national capital. This is the third increase in CNG rates this month, which follows a spike in input (natural gas) prices across the globe.
What has hit sentiment further is a draft proposal by the government to increase vehicle insurance premiums for financial year 2022-23 (FY23). Third-party motor insurance premiums have not been increased over the last two years and if this is approved, insurance costs for specific segments could rise by a fifth. The worst impacted is the 350cc and above two-wheeler segment, where premiums are up 21 per cent. Royal Enfield (Eicher Motor) is the market leader in the segment. The premiums in the 150-350cc two-wheeler category are also being inc
Bhavish Aggarwal, the founder of ride-hailing firm Ola who disrupted the electric scooters market in the country, is planning to launch an electric sports car in 2024. The plan will put it in competition with Indian players, such as the Tata group and Mahindra & Mahindra, and global giants like Tesla and Hyundai. Aggarwal, recently, took a group of reporters to the firm's design studio at the Ola campus in Bengaluru where his teams are working on several EVs, including scooters, motorcycles, sedans, and SUVs - and even robotaxis.
Covid-19, US yields, dollar to weigh on equity flows in the near term.
At the end of Monday's trading session, the market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies stood at Rs 1,51,86,312.05 crore against Rs 1,46,58,709.68 crore on Friday.
Petrol and diesel prices were hiked by 80 paise a litre each on Wednesday, taking the total increase in rates in 16 days to Rs 10 per litre.
Modest growth projections hits IT sector.
A seasonally-strong quarter, with no immediate impact of the second wave and continued acceleration of digital transformation will allow the IT services sector to report a robust Q1 this financial year. However, key metrics to look out for will be attrition rate and margin lever as they will be impacted by salary hikes. Analysts expect growth for the quarter to be broad-based, with sectors like banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI), retail, manufacturing, hi-tech and life sciences driving revenue growth. Analysts across brokerage houses are pegging revenue growth in the range of 1.5 per cent to 4.5 per cent.
India's top fuel retailers IOC, BPCL and HPCL together lost around $2.25 billion (Rs 19,000 crore) in revenue for keeping petrol and diesel prices on hold during elections in five states, including Uttar Pradesh, Moody's Investors Services said on Thursday. State fuel retailers did not revise petrol and diesel rates for a record 137 days despite prices of crude oil (raw material for producing fuel) rising to $120 per barrel compared to around $82 in early November when the hiatus began. "Based on current market prices, the oil marketing companies are currently incurring a revenue loss of around $25 (over Rs 1,900) per barrel and $24 per barrel on sale of petrol and diesel, respectively," Moody's said in a report.
Increased truck sales, new models push Leyland's share to 34%, from 30.2% in the same quarter a year before.
Q3 revenue growth estimated at 1-3% q-o-q, currency headwinds to weigh
While HDFC Bank has vowed to recoup its lost market share in the credit card segment in three to four quarters by aggressively sourcing new cards, brokerages believe it is a little hard to come by, given how competitive the landscape has become, with other players in the market becoming equally aggressive to gain market share. Kotak Institutional Equities in its report on Monday said, "We would like to believe that the recovery in market share is likely to be gradual, if any. "All the key players, including Axis Bank, are now willing to expand their credit card portfolios as they have tested quite well against Covid-19."
'The concern that the bad bank may create a moral hazard for the system is extremely valid.'
'Investing in the stocks of holdcos can be a very efficient and inexpensive way of gaining exposure to the stocks of India's reputable growing business houses.'
With slippages increasing every quarter, any derailment on growth or change in customers' repayment behaviour after moratorium may impact the overall asset quality. Correction, though, presents attractive buying opportunities, given the bank's sustained leadership position.
Puneet Wadhwa and Debashish Pachal locate real estate stocks to watch out for.
While some are raising questions over the company's ability to regain its position as the sector bellwether, others believe problems at the company may be "much bigger than anticipated".
Accenture -- considered as one of the top-most employers in India among the global technology services companies -- is believed to have over 150,000 workers in India, next to IBM.
