Banks, the biggest component of the Indian equity market, are now trading at a big discount to the benchmark indicesThe BSE Bankex index, which tracks the share price of the 10 top listed banks, is trading at a trailing price to earnings (P/E) multiple of 15.3X, nearly a 40 per cent discount to the BSE Sensex current P/E of 24.37X. This is the biggest valuation gap between the two indices in at least 10 years. Similarly, the BSE Bankex price to book ratio (P/B) of 2.22X is 40 per cent lower than the current Sensex P/B ratio of 3.61X.
After pulling out $17 billion in calendar year 2022, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have pumped $7.3 billion back into equity markets so far this year. The turnaround in foreign flows has helped domestic markets exceed the all-time highs chalked up in December 2022 and bounced back more than 10 per cent from this year's lows. However, a big nugget of FPI inflows seen this year could be off the back of two factors: exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and block deals.
'We emphasise the importance of not basing investment decisions solely on electoral outcomes.' 'Instead, focusing on investing in high-quality businesses capable of prospering regardless of the political landscape is paramount.'
The stock of the country's largest passenger vehicle maker, Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL) was down 1.06 per cent in trade on margin pressures in Q1FY24, mixed market share outlook, and earnings impact due to the buyout of Suzuki Motor Gujarat. While MSIL has decided to terminate the contract manufacturing agreement and acquire Suzuki Motor Gujarat, the quantum of payment and mode (cash/equity swap) has not been decided. If the cash option is opted for, there would be a 3.5-4 per cent hit to MSIL's FY25 earnings per share as the deal is expected to be completed by the end of the current financial year.
Most analysts have downgraded the stock of SBI Cards and Payments (SBI Card) as the credit card issuer posted weak results during the December quarter (Q3) of financial year 2023-24 (FY24). The sub-par show, analysts said, was for the eighth straight quarter. With this, they have slashed their earnings estimates by as much as 20 per cent over FY24-26 amid near-term pressure points in the company's growth outlook.
Brokerages believe that the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP's) stronger-than-expected showing in state elections reduces political risks for the domestic markets going into 2024. However, after the short-term excitement, the focus will soon shift to earnings, global liquidity conditions, and the interest rate trajectory. "BJP's win in the three state elections is much better than what exit polls suggested and reinforces the consensus expectations of a Modi win in the 2024 national elections with a greater likelihood of 300+ seats for the BJP.
Brokerages have maintained their ratings and target prices on FSN E-Commerce Ventures, the parent company of Nykaa, after the fashion and beauty online retailer posted in-line numbers during the October-December quarter (Q3) of financial year 2023-24 (FY24). They have, however, cut earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) estimates after weak demand weighed across line items in Q3. "While revenue growth was healthy at 22 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), gross margins declined 90 basis points (bps), weighed by higher discounting in own brands and lower ad income.
JP Morgan has downgraded the Indian information technology sector to 'underweight' as it believes the heydays of the sector are over. Rising margin headwinds in the near-term and the revenue headwinds in the medium-term from a potential macro slowdown, Ankur Rudra and Bhavik Mehta of JP Morgan said in the report, will mean that the sector's earnings upgrade cycle is behind. "We see peak revenue growth behind us and earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) margins trending down from inflation, mean revision.
The stock of Dixon Technologies (India), the country's largest listed electronic manufacturing services (EMS) player, was up 6 per cent in 10 trading sessions, boosting the gains over the last three months to 21 per cent. The gains came following reports that Dixon will produce laptops in India in partnership with US and Chinese firms under the production-linked investment (PLI) scheme. It recently signed an agreement to make smartphones for Xiaomi India.
Analysts assert that Vedanta Group's plan to demerge India-listed Vedanta Limited into six listed entities will not resolve the debt problem of its promoter entity, Vedanta Resources (VRL). They suggest that additional asset sales or stake sales by promoters will be necessary to repay the debt. Vedanta is already considering the divestment of its iron-steel division and its copper plant.
Shares of Bajaj Finance sprinted 4.7 per cent to Rs 7,732 per share on the BSE in Thursday's (January 4) intra-day trade as the non-bank finance company's (NBFC's) December quarter business update reflected minimal impact of the Reserve Bank of India's ban on two of its lending products. The shares, eventually, ended 4.4 per cent higher at Rs 7,710 per share as against 0.69 per cent gain in the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex. The NBFC's asset under management (AUM) topped the Rs 3-trillion-mark at the end of December 2023, swelling by roughly Rs 20,700 crore (35 per cent year-on-year) to hit Rs 3.11 trillion-mark.
Growing concerns over slower-than-expected margin recovery, amid weak deposit growth have caught HDFC Bank's investors off guard. HDFC Bank's stock on Wednesday plunged nearly 9 per cent to hit an intraday low of Rs 1,527 on the BSE after reporting weaker-than-expected earnings in the third quarter (October - December) of the current financial year (Q3FY24). The shares of India's biggest private lender closed at Rs 1,536.9, down 8.46 per cent.
Infosys was the only large-cap IT player to report sequential constant currency (cc) revenue growth for the June quarter (1 per cent ), which was ahead of analyst expectations, but the company's sharp downward revision in its growth guidance took most brokerages by surprise. In line with the cut in its FY24 revenue guidance (cc) to 1-3.5 per cent, brokerages have unanimously reduced FY24 EPS estimates for the company in the range of 2-4 per cent, though the Street is likely fearing even further downside, they say. Global brokerages Macquarie and Nomura downgraded Infosys to underperform and reduce ratings, respectively, with the latter cutting the target price to Rs 1210 from Rs 1260.
For the first time in a decade, inflows into equity mutual funds (MFs) decoupled from the past performance of the equity market, as investors continued to pour money into the market unperturbed by lacklustre returns.
Indian lenders are unlikely to clear the vertical split of BSE-listed Vedanta Ltd in a hurry, considering that the demerger would reduce the fungibility of cash flows across businesses and increase their volatility, according to analysts. The demerger plan, which would result in six separate listed entities, would require approval from shareholders, lenders and other statutory bodies. "We believe that a separate listing of different businesses would reduce the fungibility of cash flows across businesses and increase the volatility of cash flows.
However, the second quarter of FY24 is expected to be muted, and, with that, the hope of double-digit growth is now being pushed to FY25. However, analysts are expecting the momentum in the closure of record total contract values (TCVs) will continue, as has been the case over the last two quarters.
Stocks of public sector undertakings (PSUs) have been on fire in the past year as investors cheered an improvement in key operating metrics and embraced counters of these state-owned enterprises, analysts suggest. The S&P BSE PSU Index has gained over 90 per cent in the past year, rising much higher than the S&P BSE Sensex, which has rose nearly 19 per cent during this period, according to ACE Equity data. The BSE PSU Index, reports show, has delivered a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28 per cent (including dividends reinvestments) over five years and risen by almost 60 per cent in the past year.
Weakness in HDFC Bank's net interest margin (NIM) might have bottomed out in the July-September quarter (Q2-FY24), analysts said on Tuesday, as most of the merger-related one-time adjustments have been done. The bank, they believe, should be able to grow from here on, allowing the stock to reverse its underperformance. "The weak NIM print was not unexpected given the merger and regulatory impact caused by the incremental cash reserve ratio (ICRR; 5-10 bps for the quarter).
Stocks of small- and mid-cap companies continued to gain ground in July, notwithstanding analysts sounding caution on these two market segments given the sharp run thus far in calendar year 2023 (CY23). Sanjeev Prasad, co-head of Kotak Institutional Equities, in a note co-authored with Anindya Bhowmik and Sunita Baldawa in June-end, had cautioned against the sharp run in small- and mid-caps. "We do not see any particular reason for the excitement in small- and mid-cap stocks.
The markets have given a thumbs down to Jubilant FoodWorks results for the April-June quarter (Q1) of 2023-24 (FY24). The company, which owns and operates Domino's Pizza and Popeyes chain of stores, reported a (standalone) net profit of Rs 75.2 crore in Q1 of FY24 - a drop of 25.5 per cent year-on-year (YoY) from Rs 101 crore, but a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) rise from Rs 47.5 crore. What's worrying the Street is the likelihood of a dismal Q2FY24 performance, which it feels will be marred by soaring milk, cheese and vegetable prices.
Tyre stocks have been on a tear over the past six months, with average returns exceeding 45 per cent. Except for Apollo Tyres, which has seen a slight correction in the last month and a half, limiting its gains to 16 per cent, listed peers such as MRF, CEAT Tyres (formerly Cavi Elettrici e Affini Torino), and JK Tyre & Industries have delivered returns exceeding 30 per cent during this period. Production-related constraints and sluggish demand in Europe, where sales are expected to remain flat, coupled with high valuations, have contributed to Apollo Tyres' underperformance. The tyre sector's gains can be attributed to robust growth trends driven by the replacement market, which constitutes more than two-thirds of sales.
India's corporate sector is likely to report a slowdown in revenue growth and earnings for the July-September 2023 period (Q2FY24), according to earnings estimates by brokerages, after the country's top listed companies posted higher than expected profits for the first quarter. The combined net profit of Nifty50 companies, based on brokerage estimates, is expected to have grown by 19.6 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 1.75 trillion in Q2FY24 - a sharp deceleration from 37.6 per cent Y-o-Y growth in the combined earnings of index companies in the April-June 2023 period. According to estimates, the combined earnings in the second quarter would be down 8.8 per cent on a quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) basis and the lowest in the past three quarters.
The weak April-June quarter (first quarter, or Q1) results of the largest listed specialty chemical maker, SRF, and multiple global headwinds for the sector are expected to weigh on the prospects of Indian specialty chemical companies in 2023-24 (FY24). Stocks in the sector (down 7-18 per cent) have underperformed the benchmarks (up over 10 per cent) in the past three months, and given the multiple challenges, the trend is likely to continue. Kotak Institutional Equities expects a very weak quarter (Q1FY24) for the sector due to destocking, demand weakness across certain critical end-use industries, and price erosion amid intense competition from Chinese suppliers.
Shares of ICICI Bank may outperform those of HDFC Bank in the near-term, analysts said recently, after the Sandeep Bakhshi-led private sector lender reported a strong set of numbers for the July to September quarter (Q2) of financial year 2023-24 (FY24). The result, they said, reiterated that ICICI Bank is maintaining a sustainable and prudent growth led by tech-driven initiatives as against HDFC Bank, which is facing merger related challenges. According to analysts at Prabhudas Lilladher, ICICI Bank is valued at par with HDFC Bank at 2.2x/1.9x on FY25/26E core adjusted book value (ABV) basis.
The July-September quarter results of software companies in the engineering research and development (ER&D) segment were broadly in line with expectations, though there have been cuts in revenue growth guidance. While results were a mixed bag, and there are cautionary views on the near-term outlook, brokerages and global consulting firms highlight the strong growth trajectory for the sector. They expect this segment of the software sector to grow by 8-12 per cent going forward.
Shares of asset management companies (AMCs) have rallied in the last 3-4 sessions due to clarity on regulatory changes in total expense ratios (TER) and expectations that it won't upset profits much in the long run. HDFC AMC has gained over 12 per cent in the last four sessions, while Nippon AMC and UTI AMC are up around 5 per cent. Aditya Birla Sun Life (ABSL), the only other listed AMCs, has risen more than 2.3 per cent in the last four sessions.
The June quarter numbers of the country's largest listed healthcare services provider, Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (Apollo), were in line with Street estimates on the operational front. Net profit estimates, however, missed expectations due to higher interest and tax outgo. The revenue performance of the core hospital segment was robust, registering a 13 per cent increase over the year-ago quarter.
Poor earnings show in the September quarter (Q2FY24), with hints of likely weakness in asset quality going ahead, forced analysts to cut earnings estimates of SBI Cards and Payment Services (SBI Card). On the bourses, shares of the State bank of India arm tumbled 7.4 per cent to Rs 732 apiece on the BSE in the intraday trade as investors factord in near-term concerns. Analysts at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, for instance, slashed SBI Card earnings by 8 per cent and 10 per cent for FY24 and FY25, respectively, as they expect the company to face pesistent magin pressure.
India recorded economic growth of 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of 2023-24 against 13.1 per cent in the year-ago period, as per the National Statistical Office (NSO) data released on Thursday. India remains the fastest-growing major economy as China's GDP growth in the April-June quarter was 6.3 per cent.
Stocks of new-age companies have seen a mixed performance thus far in calendar year 2023 (CY23). While those of One97 Communications (parent company of Paytm), PB Fintech and Zomato have surged up to 63 per cent year-to-date (YTD), FSN e-commerce, the parent company of Nykaa, however, has dropped 14 per cent YTD. By comparison, Nifty50 and Nifty 500 indices have advanced 7 per cent and 8.7 per cent, respectively, during the period, ACE Equity data show.
India's third-largest pharmaceutical company by revenue, Cipla, is up for grabs in a three-way fight between Torrent Pharmaceuticals, Dr Reddy's Laboratories (DRL) and private equity (PE) giant Blackstone. Analysts say it is more likely for a strategic investor like Torrent or DRL to acquire Cipla than a PE firm, which may not derive healthy returns at Cipla's current market price (CMP) after the recent gains.
The "asset-right" strategy, reiterated by ITC chairman Sanjiv Puri during the company's 112th annual general meeting (AGM) on August 11, received a thumbs up from the analysts. They, however, believe that sustained earnings growth and synergies with the demerged hotel's vertical will help the stock break out from the ongoing consolidation. "The stock is expected to consolidate between Rs 420 and Rs 450 in the near future.
This will be the lender's first result after its merger with HDFC Ltd, effective from July 1, and will keep analysts glued to the management's earnings growth guidance for the merged financial behemoth.
The decline of over 5 per cent in PB Fintech's shares (the parent company of PolicyBazaar) in the past two days presents an opportunity for long-term investors to consider buying the stock, suggest analysts. By comparison, the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex has remained flat during the same period with a negligible gain of 40 points, or 0.06 per cent. Analysts believe that the recent selling is "overdone", as the company behind the online insurance portal remains committed to achieving profitability, and the potential threat from the government's online insurance portal, Bima Sugam, might be embellished.
Back home, the Nifty IT index - a gauge of the performance of the IT stocks on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) that has closely mirrored the performance of NASDAQ over the past few years - has lost nearly 2 per cent in CY23.
After being underweight on domestic agrochemical companies and preferring global plays, brokerages believe that the former may perform better in the quarters ahead. Domestic crop protection companies have faced multiple headwinds over the past year and a half, given high inventory costs, pricing pressures, lower realisations in the generic segment, increased stocks due to lower infestations, and demand-led hits to volumes. Some of the overhang from previous quarters was reflected in the April-June quarter (first quarter, or Q1) of 2023-24 (FY24) as well, with aggregate revenues and operating profit for the sector down 12 per cent and 27 per cent, respectively.
The stock of India's largest agrochemical player - UPL (formerly United Phosphorus) - fell 2.8 per cent in trade. It was among the top losers in the BSE 100 on Tuesday. Weak 2022-23 (FY23) January-March quarter (fourth quarter, or Q4) performance and muted near-term outlook led to the decline. The company reported lacklustre growth in revenue of 4 per cent on the back of a price reduction of 3 per cent and volume growth of 1 per cent.
Reliance Industries may report a muted performance for the April-June quarter of FY24, with most brokerages expecting it to have witnessed a year-on-year (YoY) and quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) contraction in revenue and net profit during the period because of a poor showing by its oil-to-chemicals (O2C) division. The O2C division, which includes refining and petrochemical businesses, accounts for a little over half of RIL's revenue and profit. A muted showing by RIL in the first quarter of 2023-24 may weigh on the overall corporate earnings, as well as the equity markets.
Rising crude oil prices and muted passenger traffic in the July-September quarter (second quarter, or Q2) of 2023-24 (FY24) have raised concerns about the profitability of listed aviation players. These two concerns have caused the stock of InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo), the largest player in the sector, to slip by 11 per cent since its highs at the end of July. Nuvama Research expects yields to cool down in the near term due to seasonality, rising crude oil prices, and higher capacity.
The stocks of Mumbai-based real estate companies have been hitting lifetime highs on expectations that launches, steady demand, and price increases in the largest real estate market in the country would boost their financials. Macrotech Developers (Lodha) and Oberoi Realty hit their all-time highs last week, while Godrej Properties came close to its 52-week high last month before witnessing a sharp correction.
