Good sowing of kharif crops, better minimum support prices, and fewer Covid-19 cases (in villages) will help the rural growth story to continue, says Maruti.
The decision to increase the MSPs (Minimum Support Prices) was taken at a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. MSP is the rate at which the government buys the grain from farmers. Currently, the government fixes MSPs for 23 crops grown in both kharif and rabi seasons. Sowing of rabi (winter) crops begins from October immediately after the harvest of kharif (summer) crops.
On food inflation, RBI said it is likely to soften from the high levels registered in December and the decline is expected to become more pronounced during the fourth quarter of this fiscal as onion prices ease following arrivals of late kharif and rabi harvests.
By June 14, the monsoon should have reached central India. But this year it hasn't even covered Karnataka properly or entered the Northeast.
The provision of consultation with the states has further created confusion on MSP
Rating agencies Crisil and Icra on Monday revised down their India growth projections for the current fiscal and the second quarter mainly due to the ripple effect of slowdown in global growth and mixed crop output. Crisil downgraded the India growth forecast by 30 bps to 7 per cent while Icra pegged the economic expansion at 6.5 per cent for the second quarter of FY2022-23. "We have revised down our forecast for real gross domestic product growth to 7 per cent for fiscal 2023 from 7.3 per cent, primarily because of the slowdown in global growth that has started to impact our exports and industrial activity.
The RBI on Wednesday cautioned that while the Indian economy appears capable of weathering the deterioration in geopolitical conditions amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, it faces headwinds from global spillovers from geopolitical tensions, elevated commodity prices and moderating external demand. The RBI, however, did not tinker with the GDP growth projection made in April. It had slashed the GDP growth projection for the fiscal 2022-23 to 7.2 per cent from its earlier forecast of 7.8 per cent.
There was a delay in sowing of kharif onion because of late arrival of monsoon and later floods in many states damaged the crop.
The government has also extended till August 31 the repayment date of short-term crop loan of up to Rs 3 lakh for agriculture and allied activities. The decision, taken by the Cabinet headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, will give respite to farmers and also help them take a call on which kharif (summer) crop to grow as sowing picks up with the arrival of southwest monsoon.
Companies expect to reach full capacity in August after fixing supply chains that collapsed in the months-long lockdown to contain the coronavirus.
In twin blows to Indian economic revival, higher food prices drove retail inflation to a five-month high of 7.4 per cent while factory output fell for the first time in 18 months. The second consecutive month of rise in consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation will add to the pressure on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to again raise interest rates to tame high prices. Inflation has been above the targeted zone for the ninth month in a row and as per statute, the RBI will now have to explain to the government in writing why it failed to keep prices below 6 per cent.
The government's main rate setting panel suggested that this be done in two tranches of Rs 2,500 each in the kharif and rabi seasons.
'The decision to supply free food grains is not an economically sound decision because the government will find it very difficult in future to charge anything for food grains.'
The economy is expected to throw up better numbers in the September quarter with GDP contraction of 9.9 per cent, as against 24 per cent in Q1 at the onset of the pandemic, says a report. The government will release the Q2 GDP numbers later this month. In the first contraction since 1980, the economy shrank a full 23.9 per cent in the first quarter of the fiscal after the whole nation was put under a strict lockdown.
Supply chain constraints will keep plaguing automobile companies even though demand significantly improved resulting in a 13 per cent year-on-year (YoY) increase in sales in financial year 2021-22 (FY22). Executives at auto firms fear that the Russia-Ukraine war will further dent the sector's prospects of recovery as supply chains face more disruptions. "The visibility in the supply side is so hazy that it is difficult to give even one quarter projection. But all the parameters of demand like pending bookings and enquiries are increasing.
The festival season has already begun in the west and south of India with Ganesh Chaturthi and Onam, respectively, and consumer companies are witnessing a pick-up in sales compared to pre-Covid levels. Retailers, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) and consumer durables companies expect their sales to grow in double digits this festival season compared to pre-pandemic times, as there are no curbs on movement now. Adani Wilmar expects sales volume to be higher by 15-20 per cent as rural India has largely witnessed good monsoon rains, and employment has picked up in urban areas.
He also said that train services will resume after the state government and protesting farmer unions assure the safety of the tracks. Tomar and Union Food, Commerce and Railways Minister Piyush Goyal held a day-long meeting with representatives of various farmer unions at Vigyan Bhawan in New Delhi.
The study showed that 50 per cent of households have reduced the number of meals ever since the lockdown was imposed
Both red and yellow onions have been imported from Turkey, Egypt and Afghanistan. The shipments are landing at Mumbai port.
Sowing of crops at this point of time, when the onset of monsoon is delayed and chances of good rains are less, will only push up the cost for farmers and also hamper the yield of the crop: Skymet.
India's current account deficit is expected to deteriorate in the current fiscal on account of costlier imports and tepid merchandise exports, according to the Finance Ministry's monthly economic review. The review released on Thursday by the ministry also said that global headwinds would continue to pose a downside risk to growth as crude oil and edibles, which have driven inflation in India, remain major imported components in the consumption basket. For the present, it said, "their global prices have softened, as fears of recession have dampened prices somewhat. This would weaken inflationary pressures in India and rein in inflation."
The latest official numbers on the price of agricultural produce gives an idea of what's fueling the farmers' protest in Delhi.
Prices started rising again beyond Rs 30 per kg in the last one week and are now ruling at Rs 32 per kg at Lasalgaon
Monsoon revival over weekend likely, but second-half rainfall may be muted. If the rains become scarce after mid-August, the standing kharif crops might be impacted
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This year, the monsoon was above normal in almost all parts, except in North-West India, which comprises the major grain producing states of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, along with states such as Himachal Pradesh, the NCR, Uttarakhand, and J&K.
Labour seems to have found employment as maids, cooks, gardeners, security guards and the like -- a transition that could be described as from farms to the kitchen sink, instead of farms to factories, observes Mahesh Vyas.
However, the areas under paddy - the biggest cereal grown during the kharif season - continue to be less than last year, mainly due to delayed onset of rains and also on account of shift towards the more lucrative maize.
Foodgrain output stood at 129.94 million tonnes (mt) in last year's Kharif season.
Despite onion prices hitting Rs 130 a kg in the wholesale market, farmers have not gained enough to make a profit this season. Farmers and other stakeholders in the value chain estimate that 30 per cent crop damage this kharif season would result in a decline of about 2 million tonnes in output from Lasalgaon district alone. Similar crop damage across the country could lead to an onion shortage of nearly 7 million tonnes this year.
As the growth figures relate to pre-Covid lockdown period it does not reflect the real picture of distress which unfolded from April onwards in the sector, when acute supply disruption led to sharp drop in prices of many commodities largely perishables impacting farmers.
It has decided not to levy the 2 per cent tax deducted at source (TDS) on cash payments above Rs 1 crore made through Agricultural Produce Market Committees.
The crop is currently trading at Rs 22 a kg compared to Rs 12.50 one month ago.
The government has made its flagship crop insurance schemes voluntary for farmers with existing crop loans or those willing to take new ones, as it seeks to address the concerns raised by farmers' body and states in implementation of these programmes. "The Union Cabinet has approved the revamping of 'Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY)' and 'Restructured Weather Based Crop Insurance Scheme (RWBCIS)' to address the existing challenges in implementation of crop insurance schemes," an official statement said.
Onion is currently trading between Rs 70 and Rs 80 in retail markets across the country.
Enthused by rising potato prices after a prolonged slump, Pradeep Sharma was planning to sow the crop on his 15-acre farm near Agra slightly earlier than usual. The delayed departure of the southwest monsoon also prompted his decision, since the good soil moisture would have saved at least one initial irrigation. But the acute shortage of diammonium phosphate (DAP), a crucial nutrient ahead of the sowing season for potatoes, nipped those hopes in the bud. DAP is the second-most used fertiliser in the country after urea.
DroughtThe Centre is expected to discuss issues related to drought management and also review the progress of major central schemes like soil health cards, irrigation programmes
At the benchmark Lasalgaon Agricultural Produce Market Committee (APMC) mandi, the model onion price shot up to Rs 21.50 a kg on Thursday, as against Rs 16.50 a kg on Wednesday. This was the highest since February 11.
The Russia-Ukraine crisis, along with general bullishness in agricultural commodities, has ensured that after a fairly long time, most of the 24 commodities for which the Centre declares the minimum support price (MSP) are trading above it. The exceptions here are chana or gram and a few varieties of pulses. This might gladden the farmers, especially those who are still holding on to their stocks from the previous kharif harvest or are harvesting the latest rabi crop. But this could stoke retail and wholesale inflation.
'Obviously, MSP hike raises chances of a reduction in exports. Even without an MSP hike, India's exports of a number of agri-commodities, like sugar, were unviable in the overseas markets.'
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