Amid the rupee declining against the US dollar, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday said the Indian currency is relatively better placed than other global currencies against the greenback. Emerging market currencies have been falling against the dollar amid geopolitical tensions in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war, concerns over growth, high global crude prices, sustained inflation and central banks worldwide adopting hawkish monetary policy approach. "We are relatively better placed. We are not a closed economy. We are part of the globalised world.
The rupee depreciated 22 paise to a record low of 78.59 against the US dollar in opening trade on Tuesday as persistent foreign funds outflows weighed on investor sentiments. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened on a weak note at 78.53 against the American dollar, then lost ground to quote at 78.59 -- its all-time low level, registering a fall of 22 paise from the last close. On Monday, the rupee declined by 4 paise to close at its life-time low of 78.37 against the US dollar.
The rupee weakened by 14 paise to close at a new lifetime low of 79.59 against the US dollar on Tuesday as a strong greenback overseas and persistent foreign fund outflows continued to weigh on investor sentiment. This comes a day after the RBI announced measures for international trade settlement in rupees. At the interbank forex market, the local unit opened weak at 79.55 against the greenback and witnessed an intra-day high of 79.53 and a low of 79.66.
India has finally got a symbol for the Rupee and joined a select club of countries whose currencies have a unique identity.
The rupee fell by 41 paise to close at a fresh lifetime low of 79.36 (provisional) against the US dollar on Tuesday amid a strong greenback overseas and unrelenting foreign fund outflows. At the interbank forex market, the local unit opened at 79.04 against the greenback and witnessed an intra-day high of 79.02 and a low of 79.38. It finally settled at 79.36 (provisional), down 41 paise over its previous close.
India's external debt rose by 8.2 per cent year-on-year to $620.7 billion as of March 2022, which according to the finance ministry is sustainable. While 53.2 per cent of it was denominated in the US dollar, Indian rupee-denominated debt, estimated at 31.2 per cent, was the second largest, as per the status report on India's external debt released by the ministry. "India's external debt continues to be sustainable and prudently managed. As of end-March 2022, it stood at $620.7 billion, growing by 8.2 per cent over the level a year ago.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday said 67 per cent of the decline in the foreign exchange reserves since April was due to valuation changes arising from strengthening US dollar and higher American bond yields. The forex reserves, which stood at $606.475 billion as on April 2, have declined to $537.5 billion as on September 23. It was also the eighth straight week when the reserves declined.
For the first time, the rupee declined to the low level of 80 against the US dollar in intra-day spot trading on Monday before ending the session 16 paise lower at 79.98 amid a surge in crude oil prices and unrelenting foreign fund outflows. At the interbank forex market, the local unit opened at 79.76 against the greenback but lost ground to touch the psychological low mark of 80 against the American currency. The local unit clawed back some lost ground and closed at 79.98, registering a fall of 16 paise over its previous close.
Lower crude oil prices and a rally in domestic equities restricted the losses to some extent, forex dealers said. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the domestic currency opened weak at 79.50 per dollar.
The rupee depreciated further by 13 paise to hit a new life-time closing low of 82.30 against the US dollar on Friday as a firm American currency and risk-averse sentiment among investors weighed on the local unit. Moreover, a negative trend in domestic equities and elevated crude oil prices sapped investor appetite, forex traders said. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local currency opened at 82.19, then fell further to 82.43. It finally settled at an all-time low of 82.30 against the American currency, registering a decline of 13 paise over its previous close.
'... as has been happening in the last three weeks, then the foreign exchange reserves will not be comfortable to ensure that the rupee does not fall drastically.'
The rupee plunged 20 paise to close at an all-time low of 78.13 against the US dollar on Monday, as a lacklustre trend in domestic equities and stronger greenback overseas weighed on investor sentiments. Forex traders said weak Asian currencies and persistent foreign capital outflows were the other major factors that dragged the local unit down. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local currency opened at 78.20 and witnessed an intra-day high of 78.02 and a low of 78.29 against the US dollar.
The central government is on track to meet its fiscal deficit target of 6.4 per cent of the GDP for 2022-23 on the back of strong growth in revenue collections, the World Bank said in its India Development Update on Tuesday. High nominal GDP growth in the first quarter supported strong growth in revenue collection, especially Goods and Services Tax (GST), despite tax cuts on fuel. Notwithstanding an increase in spending due to expanded fertilizer subsidies and food subsidies for vulnerable households in response to the commodity price shock, the government is on track to meet its FY22/23 fiscal deficit target of 6.4 per cent of GDP and the general government deficit is projected to decline to 9.6 per cent from 10.3 per cent in FY21/22 and 13.3 per cent in FY20/21.
Inflation to peak in the current quarter within tolerance band, moderating in the second half of next fiscal, says central bank.
The Centre is pushing for bilateral trade with Cuba and its settlement in rupee as a part of its strategy to internationalise the domestic currency. A delegation from Cuba, including officials from its central bank, met Indian government officials and banks last month to discuss bilateral trade and settlement using the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) payment mechanism in rupee, said people aware of the matter. Since the Cuban nation has opened up its economy and is looking to implement reforms to attract investments from India, Cuban banks have evinced interest in opening special rupee vostro accounts (SRVAs) with Indian banks.
Moody's Investors Service on Thursday slashed India's economic growth projection for 2022 to 7.7 per cent, saying that rising interest rates, uneven monsoon, and slowing global growth will dampen economic momentum on a sequential basis.
The rupee rose by 12 paise to close at 79.78 against the US dollar on Monday due to a weak dollar in overseas markets and an improved appetite for riskier assets. Stronger regional currencies also supported the rupee sentiment ahead of the US Fed policy decision on Wednesday. Weak domestic equities and FII outflows, however, capped sharp gains. At the inter-bank forex market, the local unit opened at 79.86 against the greenback and moved in a range of 79.70 to 79.87 in the day trade.
The rupee extended its losses and slumped 60 paise to close at a record low of 77.50 (provisional) against the US dollar on Monday, pressured by the strength of the American currency overseas and unabated foreign fund outflows. Forex traders said risk appetite has weakened amid mounting concerns about inflation that may trigger more aggressive rate hikes by global central banks. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened lower at 77.17 against the greenback, and finally settled for the day at 77.50, down 60 paise over its previous close.
'The Digital Rupee will be equal to the Indian rupee in value and backed by the full faith and credit of the RBI/Indian government.'
The rupee slipped by 4 paise to close at 77.59 (provisional) against the US dollar on Tuesday, weighed down by a negative trend in domestic equities and unabated foreign fund outflows. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened lower at 77.56 against the greenback, and finally settled at 77.59, down 4 paise over its previous close. During the trading session, the rupee touched an intra-day low of 77.67 and a high of 77.51.
Sliding for the fifth straight session, the rupee fell 3 paise to close at a fresh lifetime low of 79.06 against the US dollar on Thursday amid a strong greenback overseas and unrelenting foreign fund outflows. At the interbank forex market, the local unit opened at 78.92 against the greenback and witnessed an intra-day high of 78.90 and a low of 79.07. It finally settled at 79.06, down 3 paise over its previous close of 79.03.
The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia is unlikely to have any major impact on the Indian rupee and the forex volatility in the country (USD/INR) has been much less now as compared to the global financial crisis which took place in 2008, SBI said in its Ecowrap research report. The report said that though the conflict between the two CIS nations may drag on for now, it is expected that the USD/INR, the most tracked pair in the local forex market, will trade at an elevated zone. But ideally, the expected average range of the rupee is expected to be in the band Between Rs 76 to Rs 78 to the USD with an appreciated bias.
Russian traders have started asking for payments in ruble for their exports to India in a move that could derail trade between the two countries which gathered pace after the war in Europe. This is because Indian importers are unable to pay in ruble. The India-Russia trade gathered pace after Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine in February this year. In the April-June quarter, India's imports from Russia were valued at $9.27 billion, up 369 per cent year on year.
The rupee on Tuesday recovered from its all-time intra day low of 77.79 to close higher by 7 paise on a stellar rally in domestic stock markets. After opening lower at 77.67, the local unit plunged further to its all-time intra-day low of 77.79 due to a spike in crude oil prices and disappointing macroeconomic data. However, a strong rally in domestic equities helped the rupee rebound and close at 77.48 (provisional), showing net gains of 7 paise over the last close of 77.55. The forex market was closed on Monday on account of Buddha Purnima.
The Indian rupee is down nearly 2 per cent against the US dollar since the beginning of January 2019. Experts attribute the Indian rupee's relatively poor performance to a sharper-than-expected fall in economic growth in India.
Cooking gas LPG price on Wednesday was hiked by Rs 50 per cylinder, the third increase in rates since May on firming international energy prices. Non-subsidised LPG now costs Rs 1,053 per 14.2-kg cylinder in the national capital, up from Rs 1,003 previously, according to a price notification of state-owned fuel retailers. Common households pay non-subsidised rates for the cooking gas they buy, after the government restricted subsidy to just poor beneficiaries who got connections under the Ujjwala scheme.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday raised the benchmark lending rate by 50 basis points to 5.40 per cent to tame inflation.
Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran on Tuesday said India is not defending the rupee and the Reserve Bank of India is taking necessary steps to ensure that the movement of the rupee is gradual and in line with market trends. Nageswaran further said that the rupee is being managed in a manner that reflects the fundamentals of the economy. "India is not defending the rupee... I don't think Indian fundamentals are such that we need to defend the rupee. "The rupee can take care of itself," he said at an event in New Delhi.
The recent currency volatility - rupee's depreciation against international currencies - may have given heartburns to automakers that rely on imports or pay royalty to parent companies abroad. But for Maruti Suzuki India, favourable movement of the yen - the currency that matters the most - against the Indian rupee, has given it reasons to cheer. The yen's sharp fall against the rupee and the rupee's depreciation against the US dollar, which in turn will bump up export realisations, are set to give a margin boost to the maker of Baleno and Brezza, said analysts. The softening of commodity prices and slew of new SUV launches in the coming months will also aid margins, they said.
The depreciation in rupee may pose a problem for students who have taken loans from Indian lenders.
Mayank Goyal, founder and CEO, moneyHOP, will answer queries related to how to best manage your money while travelling internationally.
Cooking gas LPG price was on Thursday hiked by Rs 3.50 per cylinder, the second increase in rate this month following the firming of international energy rates. Non-subsidised LPG now costs Rs 1,003 per 14.2-kg cylinder in the national capital, up from Rs 999.50 previously, according to a price notification of state-owned fuel retailers. This is the second increase in LPG rate this month and the third in less than two months. The price was hiked by Rs 50 per cylinder on March 22 and again by the same quantum on May 7.
'It was because of the huge selloff in the Indian equities that the rupee fell so sharply against the dollar on Friday.'
The rupee tumbled 19 paise to close at a fresh lifetime low of 77.93 against the US dollar on Friday as rising crude oil prices and unabated foreign capital outflows soured sentiment. A sell-off in equity markets and stronger greenback overseas also weighed on the domestic unit, forex traders said. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local currency opened at 77.81 and witnessed an intra-day high of 77.79 and a low of 77.93 against the US dollar.
The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) on March 17 had announced that State Bank of India (SBI) would extend a term loan of $1 billion to Sri Lanka, fully guaranteed by the Indian government, and this was part of India's financial aid to the troubled island nation. Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) spokesperson Arindam Bagchi was quoted saying by news agency PTI that the loan would be used for importing food, medicines, and other essential items. "India has always stood with the people of Sri Lanka and we will continue to extend all possible support at this juncture.
Amid news of a fuel shortage in some parts of the country and wider unrest over fuel issues in the neighbourhood, an analysis of the data from international tracker globalpetrolprices.com shows that the per litre price of petrol is higher in India than in seven out of its nine neighbours.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Monday said with the country's foreign exchange reserves at $677 billion, it is comfortably placed to deal with any spillover effects and for financing of the current account deficit. Over the last three years, the country's foreign exchange reserves have surged by $270 billion. He said as per the latest data, the foreign exchange reserves are $622 billion.
India's politicians need to do a better job of managing the economy: Inflation control, productivity improvement, etc, asserts T N Ninan.
'Market feels this Budget will promote all-round growth and that is what is giving it confidence.'
'Investors need to expect steady returns over the next one to two years with bouts of high volatility.'
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