The India-US trade deal has offered a much-needed breather for the Indian information technology (IT) industry, which has been grappling with global macroeconomic uncertainty and subdued client spending over the past few years.
Domestic equities surged on Tuesday, posting their best single-day gains in more than eight months after a long-awaited trade deal between India and the US. The deal, which lowered tariffs on Indian goods to 18 per cent from 50 per cent, significantly improved investor sentiment and lifted a key overhang for the market.
FPIs net sold equities worth Rs 1.7 trillion in 2025 -- the highest annual net sale on record.
'The market's sharp decline recently has shaken the confidence of retail investors, leading to increased selling.'
India is among the three least-favoured Asian stock markets, according to BofA Securities whose survey found that 10 per cent of fund managers are underweight on Indian equities from a 12-month perspective.
The last time these two indexes recorded a negative performance on a calendar year basis was in CY19.
Shrinking inflows and surging outflows on account of profit-booking has curtailed mutual fund (MF) investments in equities since April. The total investments made by equity MFs during the first three months of 2023-24 stands at just Rs 2,980 crore, compared with an average monthly investment of Rs 14,500 crore in 2022-23, reveals data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India. "We are seeing signs of moderation in non-systematic investment plan (SIP) contribution, which has impacted domestic fund inflows in recent months to some extent," says Kunal Vora, head-India equity research, BNP Paribas.
'As China's reopening euphoria fizzled out on the back of some disappointing economic data, we saw inflows coming back to India with full force in the past 3-4 months.'
Domestic mutual funds (MFs) have kept their faith in the Indian stock market despite multiple headwinds all through 2022-23 (FY23), with their net flows into equities crossing the Rs 1.5-trillion mark for the second consecutive financial year. MFs pumped a net Rs 1.53 trillion into equities till March 1, 2023, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) data shows, as compared to Rs 1.72 trillion in FY22. Since FY15, MFs have been net buyers of equities, except in FY21, when they sold a net Rs 1.21 trillion.
The sharp correction in the Indian markets from their peak levels has made valuations attractive, say analysts, who advise buying selectively, but only from a long-term perspective. Fifty-six of the Nifty 100 stocks, according to Mahesh Nandurkar, managing director at Jefferies, now trade below the 10-year historical averages, including stocks in financial, select auto, and pharma sectors. "Valuation (one-year forward consensus price-to-earnings, PE) has declined 25 per cent from October 2021 peak, almost matching the 33 per cent price-earnings contraction during the 2011 tightening cycle when repo rates went up by 375 basis points (bps) versus 250 bps this cycle.
With the Big Four information technology services players having disappointed the Street, the focus is on mid-cap IT players who seem to have met expectations, according to analyst reports and management commentary on the demand environment.
Indian equity markets should be able to withstand inflation up to 8 per cent, said analysts at Credit Suisse Wealth Management in a recent note. Should the rate of inflation move higher than this, the valuation of Indian equities could deteriorate further, they cautioned. The fall from the peak levels has seen Nifty's 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.6 dip toward its 10-year and 5-year (pre-COVID) average of 16.9, which suggests that valuation froth of Indian equities has settled, said the Credit Suisse analysts.
The correction seen in the stock markets thus far is insufficient and there are significant downside risks, given the way macroeconomic data is shaping up, a Nomura equity strategist said on Thursday. "The markets are trying to look through the current stress we see in the macros. There are potential risks to the market. "Our estimates assume no major impact on growth and earnings. "The market should have been at least 5 per cent lower than it is now.
A lot of mid and small-caps are in the bubble zone and command high valuation and have corrected sharply.
So which sectors are likely to do well in 2022? Should you focus on domestic economy-related sectors or export-oriented ones?
'For the next two years, we expect the bulk of earnings growth contribution from sectors like financials and energy, where the outlook remains positive, while the sectors which are linked to domestic consumption and are currently witnessing strains on margins have low salience for Nifty earnings.'
The deluge of offerings in the primary market, a muted results season and increasing talks of a Fed taper may quicken the pace of overseas investors selling Indian equities in the near term. The next few weeks may see a dozen companies tap the market for initial public offerings and raise about Rs 30,000 crore. These include the likes of Zomato, Glenmark Life Sciences, Utkarsh Small Finance Bank and Seven Islands Shipping.
Around 75 per cent, or 372 stocks, that are part of the BSE500 are trading at least 10 per cent below their all-time high levels, despite the index hitting a record high 20,515 points on the BSE in intra-day trade on Wednesday, surpassing its previous high of 20,390 touched in March 12. The index, which accounts for 93 per cent of BSE listed companies' market capitalisation, has gained 8 per cent from its recent low of 18,983, touched on April 19. In comparison, the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex gained 6 per cent over the same period, but is still nearly 4.5 per cent away from its all-time high of 52,517 that it hit on February 16.
'Earlier-than-expected tapering from the US, followed by rate hikes, and locally, a potential third wave, which mimics the second wave in terms of severity.'
'There is a weak link between the economy and the stock market.'
Among the lot, Rallis India, Escorts, Jubilant Life Sciences, and Crisil added half of the total gains made in the ace stock-picker's portfolio.
According to experts, work from home, volatility in stock markets worldwide, and redemption pressures compelled investors to defer new investment plans.
Despite the large economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, the markets have recovered sharply even though the performance among individual stocks has been quite polarised.
The only asset class which has given them positive real returns in the last five years is gold, says Ridham Desai, strategist and head of India Equity Research at Morgan Stanley India.
The liquidity-fuelled rally will continue for some time, however, fundamentals are getting stretched.
Indian markets started 2012 on a positive note. Ridham Desai, managing director and strategist and head of India equity research, Morgan Stanley, says, he expects a 15 per cent upside in the Sensex this year.
A meaningful correction in global oil prices and/or progress on key reforms would be important re-rating triggers for the Indian stock market, says Bharat Iyer, executive director and the head of India equity research at JPMorgan.
Analysts are bullish on consumption and investment themes.
Switzerland-based bank Credit Suisse said on Tuesday it expects the Bombay Stock Exchange's 30-stock barometer Sensex to touch the 22,000 mark in 12 months.
Market participants are hoping for a few tweaks on the taxation front which will encourage consumers and businesses to spend.
'The market won't wait for earnings to recover.'
The Street was hoping that investors will lap up shares of high-dividend companies on optimism that their payouts will increase further, thanks to the 20 per cent tax saving. However, the trade failed to materialise as wealthy investors stayed away fearing high tax outgo, and experts raised doubts on whether companies would actually increase cash dole outs.
Despite the 3 per cent gain in September 2019, the FPI sell-off during the quarter has seen the benchmark indices - the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty 50 register negative returns in Q3CY19.
'The news about the new virus strain in the UK provided them with an opportunity to take money off the table.'
Net sales growth for the quarter ended December (Q3FY20) was 4.5 per cent on a year-on-year (YoY) basis for companies that have declared their results so far, compared to an 8.4 per cent rise in the first half of the financial year. This indicates that there could be a further rise in days' sales of inventory.
Liquidity issues post the crisis at DHFL, progress of monsoon, rupee trajectory at the domestic level and oil prices are some factors that will keep markets choppy, analysts say.
Even though stocks may remain volatile in the run-up to the polls, as political parties stitch up alliances, the long-term trajectory for the markets remains bullish.
The government is expected to dole out some populist policies, especially for the rural / farm sector while presenting the interim budget, given that the country is heading towards general elections over the next few months.
'People always short-change the resilience of the economy.'
Of these 26, Bajaj Finance, Associated Alcohols and Breweries, Garware Technologies, Filatex India, Tasty Bite Eatables, Aarti Industries and GMM Pfaudler saw an over 10-fold surge in price since 2014.
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