Trump can afford to say that COVID-19 is a 'China virus', but we can't expect Modi to say that aloud while his actions may speak louder, says Rup Narayan Das.
Forecasts of a frosty, rough patch in India-China relations, observers in New Delhi and Beijing told rediff.com, may be inaccurate, at least for now.
The Galwan clash occurred six months after the Doklam disengagement and two high-profile meetings. India should not be caught by surprise once again, asserts former foreign secretary Shyam Saran.
After the 1962 War with China, there was a demand to forge greater defence cooperation between India and the West. One such voice was that of Sudhir Ghosh, a distinguished MP, to tie up strategic cooperation with the USA immediately after the Chinese attack on India, recalls Rup Narayan Das.
'Unsurprisingly, Trump shared Modi's podcast with Fridman on his Truth account.' 'The intentions of Trump, a transactional president, are never easy to tell.' 'We will know in the next fortnight if and when he unfolds reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods, whether Modi's flattering words made any significant difference to Trump's compass,' notes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
India's Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri has arrived in Beijing for a two-day visit during which he will hold talks with Chinese officials. The visit comes amid ongoing efforts to de-escalate tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh and to resume bilateral cooperation in various fields, including the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra.
In the talks, China emphasised that the two sides should proceed from the fundamental interests of China, India and adhere to the strategic height and long-term perspective of China-India relations, the readout said.
A leading expert predicts that the incoming Trump administration will likely continue its pro-India policies, including the Indo-Pacific strategy and Quad, but highlights potential challenges such as trade disagreements, immigration issues, and a possible quid pro quo for technology sharing. The expert also notes that the Trump 2.0 administration may prioritize great power politics over strategic altruism, potentially impacting human rights and religious freedom concerns.
Condolences have poured in from across the globe, including from the United States, Canada and Sri Lanka following the demise of former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
'A less tense US-China relationship would make Beijing less likely to provoke India -- including on the border -- in retaliation for its close defence ties with the US.'
'The muscularity of the last three years didn't bring any dividends and if anything, Chinese attitudes only hardened,' says Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Following the disengagement, both sides will soon start the coordinated patrolling in their respective areas, sources added.
India's External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has stated that peace and tranquility in border areas are essential for the development of bilateral ties with China. He said India will be discussing de-escalation and effective management of activities in border areas with China in the coming days, following the completion of troop disengagement in eastern Ladakh. Jaishankar emphasized the importance of respecting the Line of Actual Control (LAC), maintaining the status quo, and adhering to past agreements. The disengagement phase allows for discussions on other aspects of bilateral engagement, with national security interests prioritized. However, the statement sparked an uproar in the Rajya Sabha, with Opposition MPs demanding clarifications that were disallowed by the Chair, leading to a walkout.
Jaishankar said that both sides also exchanged views on the next steps in the India-China bilateral ties.
The Tata Group is one of the very few Indian MNCs which has carved out a niche in China's highly competitive market, notes Rup Narayan Das.
'The border deal offers a hedge for India against Trump's unpredictability when it comes to his approach to competition with China.'
Asked about the recent meeting between Modi and Xi, and if Russia had any role in it, Alipov said, "We have not played any role in it, but we are happy that it took place in Kazan... We wholeheartedly welcome the meeting."
'Tensions and dialogue are likely to go hand-in-hand with China.' 'The goal should be to cultivate power so that one can negotiate from a position of strength.'
But there is a bigger issue that both of us have brought forces close up and in that sense there is a militarisation of the border, he said.
'The greatness of India can be experienced by meeting Indians on the frontiers of India.' 'Every citizen on the border is a soldier'
In their first structured bilateral talks in nearly five years, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping Wednesday agreed that India and China can have a 'peaceful and stable' relationship by displaying maturity and mutual respect and endorsed the pact on the resolution of the dragging eastern Ladakh border row.
'The virus of trust deficit seems to be taking a toll of the friendship built over the years by succeeding leaderships of the two countries,' notes Rup Narayan Das.
China does not have to give up what it took in 2020, it will never give up its claim to Arunachal Pradesh, Ladakh and other areas, and it has all the time now to plan its next surprise, points out Lieutenant General Prakash Katoch (retd).
'Given China's past behaviour and their territorial claims, should we be sceptical regarding China's willingness to adhere to these agreements fully? The answer is yes.' 'As Ronald Reagan famously said in the context of the SALT talks, 'Trust, but verify!' India should also do the same.' 'This has already begun with foot patrolling, drones, satellite imagery and so on. India's military deployment did mirror China's and will continue to do so in the future.'
'My understanding is that by the time President Xi Jinping came for the Chennai summit [2019], he had already instructed his army to undertake the action in Galwan in the summer of 2020.'
'Disengagement is merely the first step in a lengthy process of arriving at a new normal along the LAC in Eastern Ladakh and the entire land boundary.' 'The Indian government should insist on the restoration of the status quo ante in Eastern Ladakh.'
In seeking visa approvals for engineers from China, the company has reasoned that India lacks the expertise to set up such a solar facility.
Disengagement from the LAC will remain a chimera because China has given enough indications that the PLA will not move back any more. China has even deployed drones to monitor and deny any patrolling by Indian troops even in the buffer zones which are all in Indian Territory, explains Lieutenant General Prakash Katoch (retd).
US's terrible political and economic leadership will ultimately cost the dollar its value. India must act early to avoid being dragged down, suggests R Jagannathan.
'Those who know China would not be complacent enough to think that the Chinese threat is an illusion.'
Dr Jaishankar, right, appears to look away from Wang Yi, second from right, at the East Asia Summit Foreign Ministers Meeting in Jakarta, Indonesia, Friday, July 14, 2023.
South Asian expert Professor Ma Jiali speaks on Sino-Indian relations and what Dr Singh visit to China means.
With Beijing remaining intransigent on the withdrawal of additional troops deployed by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) since the deadly border clash in 2020 in eastern Ladakh, India's bilateral ties with China remained frozen in 2023 with no forward movement on the horizon despite several rounds of diplomatic and military talks.
Jaishankar also said that there is a need to take the disengagement process forward.
Secularism for India does not mean being non-religious but an equal respect to all faiths, but the "appeasement" government policies of the past made the biggest religion of the country feel like it had to be self-deprecatory in the name of equality, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has said.
The Chinese inference is that if the Chinese visa is embossed on an Indian passport, held by Indian citizens from Arunachal Pradesh, it may be tantamount to recognising Indian sovereignty over Arunachal Pradesh, states Rup Narayan Das.
"It doesn't help India when media needlessly bashes China" thinks senior sources in government.
'In the short term the relationship will get worse.'
Relations between India and China have been in an 'abnormal state' since the 2020 Galwan clash and it is a 'possibly longer than medium-term issue', External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said in New York.
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