Have the markets already played out their dynamics before the economy has even properly taken off? Are we now destined for a period of mediocre returns despite a strong economy? asks Akash Prakash.
A third of the global economy will be in recession this year, the IMF chief has said, and warned that 2023 will be "tougher" than last year as the US, EU and China will see their economies slow down. Kristalina Georgieva, the chief of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) made these grim assertions on Sunday during a CBS news programme "Face the Nation." It comes at a time when the ongoing conflict in Ukraine shows no signs of abating after more than 10 months, with spiralling inflation, higher interest rates and the surge in coronavirus infections in China fuelled by the Omicron variant.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) is mulling doing away with the priority distribution (PD) model in Alternative Investment Funds (AIFs) and introducing in the regulation pro-rata rights (based on the ratio of their commitments) for investors. AIFs are pooled investment vehicles but certain schemes have been observed to be following a differential distribution model where one class of investors, often a junior class, share loss more than the ratio of their contributions in comparison to the senior class of investors. As the senior class of investors have priority in distribution over the junior class of investors, the profit distribution is done first to these investors while they are compensated for loss out of the residual capital of junior class investors.
The first-quarter performance of top IT services players, as well as mid-cap firms, has been subdued, reflecting macro uncertainties. The numbers of the top four firms show several misses, hinting at difficult times ahead. One mismatch is the total contract value (TCV) signed by the firms and the revenue growth registered.
The Reserve Bank (RBI) resisted a 'raid' planned by some in the government to extract Rs 2-3 lakh crore from its balance sheet in 2018 to meet populist spending in run-up to general elections, Viral Acharya, who was deputy governor at RBI at that time, has written.
The currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 7,600 crore in the Diwali week, making it the first such happening in two decades, a report said on Thursday. This was made possible courtesy of a greater reliance on digital payments by people, the report by economists at SBI said, adding that the Indian economy is undergoing a structural transformation at present. They clarified that the Diwali week in 2009 had also witnessed a marginal Rs 950 crore decline in currency in circulation, but that was purely due to the economic slowdown amid the global financial crisis.
'Silicon Valley people are generally used to layoffs.' 'Every person who has been in the industry for 15-20 years would have been laid off at least 3-4 times.' 'In India, we aren't used to that concept.' 'So when it came here, people were shocked.'
It was August 2007. Tata Steel was turning 100. Jamshedpur, its hometown, had an air of celebration. The line-up for the special event included the launch of Air Deccan's commercial flight connecting Kolkata and Jamshedpur, and release of Russi Lala's new book, Romance of Tata Steel. There was also the screening of The Spirit of Steel, a 20-minute documentary directed by Zafar Hai showcasing Tata Steel's legacy, and a corporate anthem penned by Javed Akhtar and composed by Shankar, Ehsaan and Loy.
For the banking system a new cycle starts in FY2024. It's fraught with fresh challenges on asset quality and profitability, warns Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The global turmoil in the banking sector has made analysts cautious, who advise that investors stay away from stocks of this sector till the overall sentiment improves. The recent trouble for the banking sector started with the collapse of US-based Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), Silvergate Capital and Signature Bank. On its part, Moody's Investors Service has also cut its outlook for the US banking system to 'negative' from 'stable', citing the run on deposits at these three banks that led to the collapse of these banking majors in less than a week.
The rupee has depreciated 9.7 per cent against the US dollar over a year and with the RBI stemming the rupee's weakness through dollar sales, its reserves have dropped to their lowest levels since October, 2020. The fall in reserves has widespread implications.
Nirmala Sitharaman will present the budget of the second term of the Narendra Modi government today.
India must be prepared to deal with climate disasters, geopolitical confrontations, and social strife linked to global events, asserts Jayant Sinha, chairman of Parliament's Standing Committee on Finance.
At Rs 30.88 lakh crore, the currency with the public is 71.84 per cent higher than the level for the fortnight ended November 4, 2016.
Education finance is a complex and dynamic sector. There are too many variables -- the course, the calibre of students, the universities, and the job prospects once the course is over, notes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
'We continue to believe that the global economy will narrowly avoid a recession, despite expecting the US, Canada, and most of Europe to fall into recession at some point over the next year or so.'
Taxing the rich will fetch nothing; only votes, argues Debashis Basu.
This year's edition, three years lost to the pandemic and scheduling, wore a distinctive shade of green, and, as would befit an era of technology shift from internal combustion engines to electric motors, had a clutch of high-technology exhibits and concepts. But the excitement of the expo's heyday was missing.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday hiked key benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.5 per cent, citing sticky core inflation. This is the sixth time interest rate has been hiked by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) since May last year, taking the total quantum of hike to 250 basis points. Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) by a majority decided to raise the policy repo rate by 25 basis points and keep a 'strong vigil' on inflation outlook.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday cut its projection of India's economic growth in 2022 to 6.8 per cent, as it joins other global agencies that have trimmed forecasts. The IMF had in July projected a gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 7.4 per cent for India in the fiscal year that started in April 2022. Even that forecast was lower than 8.2 per cent projected in January this year. India had grown at 8.7 per cent in 2021-22 fiscal (April 2021 to March 2022).
Profitability and cash reserves have halved since the global financial crisis.
Conventional wisdom is that when the US sneezes, emerging markets like India catch a cold. And yet the Indian stock market went up last year, points out Debashish Basu.
'People trust India and Indians a lot more than they trust China and the Chinese.'
The RBI's decision to hike the benchmark interest rate will make home loans costlier and affect housing sales, especially in affordable and mid-income segments, according to property consultants. The RBI on Wednesday hiked the key benchmark rate by 50 basis points. Property consultancy firms Anarock, Knight Frank India, JLL India, Colliers India, India Sotheby's International Realty and Investors Clinic said that the RBI's move was on the expected line to control inflation and this would result in an increase in interest rates on home loans.
It has been a choppy calendar year 2022 (CY22) for global financial markets amid the spectre of rising inflation that led most central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve (US Fed), to tighten their monetary policy. Most equity indices across the globe have seen a sharp fall from their respective peak levels in this backdrop. FTSE India, for instance, has corrected 16 per cent from its October peak.
Investors have scaled back their allocation to equities as pessimism has reached "dire" levels due to cloudy economic outlook, according to the latest Bank of America (BofA) monthly global fund manager survey that covered nearly 300 money managers with combined assets of $800 billion. The survey showed that the expectations for global growth and profits are at all-time lows and cash levels are at highest since the 9/11 attacks. Interest rate hikes by central banks, the unwinding of an easy monetary regime, disruptions in global supply chains, and fears of recession have heightened market volatility since the beginning of the year.
Expect heightened volatility and stress to hit the markets. Caution may be the need of the hour, alerts Akash Prakash.
'This is a period of significant uncertainty, of unknown unknowns.'
With economic activity still to reach pre-pandemic levels, the RBI may slow down the pace of rate hikes until next year to quell soaring inflation while supporting growth, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) says in its latest report. The Manila-based multilateral funding agency has raised the inflation forecast for the current fiscal year ending in March 2023 to 6.7 per cent from its earlier projection of 5.8 per cent. For the next fiscal year too, the forecast has been revised upwards to 5.8 per cent from 5 per cent earlier.
'Even if you fail as an entrepreneur, you can start another business or get a job.'
If that happens, India's economic size will be just shy of $20 trillion and its annual per capita income will be about $10,000, when the country celebrates its centenary of independence.
The current up move, according to analysts, closely resembles the rally post the global financial crisis in 2008-09, not just in quantum and speed, but also the way small-and mid-cap indices outperformed large-cap peers.
Nearly 25 million jobs could be lost worldwide due to the coronavirus pandemic, but an internationally coordinated policy response can help lower the impact on global unemployment, according to a UN agency. In its preliminary assessment report titled 'COVID-19 and world of work: Impacts and responses', the International Labour Organization (ILO) calls for urgent, large-scale and coordinated measures across three pillars -- protecting workers in the workplace, stimulating the economy and employment, and supporting jobs and incomes.
It's the first time in my memory that I have seen a negative expected return for equities, notes Akash Prakash. Hopefully, this implies the consensus is being too negative, and markets, as usual, will surprise everyone and deliver the least likely outcome.
While the collapse of a large financial intermediary can wreak havoc on the system because of the interconnectivity, a large business conglomerate too can play spoilsport if the banks have too much exposure to the entity, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Since October, FPIs have sold over $26 billion worth of stocks, which is the largest selling ever seen in India, observes Akash Prakash.
Ten years ago, gold was selling at well below its long-term inflation-adjusted average, and the integration of three billion emerging market citizens into the global economy could only mean a giant long-term boost to demand.
Many years during which monsoons were poor saw high returns, while normal or excess rainfall has also coincided with poor calendar year gains.
Unlike the earlier experience post the global financial crisis, where nearly 90 per cent of the restructuring happened in the corporate loans, the non-corporate segment, which includes small businesses, agricultural loans and retail lending, will account for a higher share this time.
Infrastructure funds, which bet on stocks closely linked with infrastructure development in the country, have emerged as one of the best-performing categories over the past year. They have generated an average return of 90.63 per cent - the third-best, after technology funds and small-cap funds. Of the 21 schemes in the category, seven have given a return of more than 100 per cent in a year.
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