The recent surge in crude oil prices could shave off the gains made by India Inc in profit margins in the past few quarters. Worse, it comes at a time when consumer demand in the country is slipping and major global economies are witnessing a slowdown. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that the margin expansion accounted for three-fourths of the rise in the listed firms' operating profit between the April-June quarter (Q1) of FY23 and Q1FY24, and only a quarter of profits gains came from revenue growth.
Replying to the no-confidence motion, Prime Minister Narendra Modi asserted on Thursday that the opposition's move is auspicious for his government as he expressed confidence that the Bharatiya Janata Party and its allies will break old records to retain power at the Centre in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
The changes in the domestic and global economy following the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic are altering the corporate profit league table in India. Reliance Industries (RIL), which topped the India Inc profit chart for more than a decade, lost out to State Bank of India (SBI) in the 2023-24 (FY24) April-June quarter (first quarter, or Q1). India's biggest lender reported a consolidated net profit (adjusted for exceptional gains and losses) of Rs 66,860 crore during the trailing 12-month (TTM) ended in June this year, ahead of RIL's TTM adjusted net profit of Rs 64,758 crore in the quarter.
Modi said New Delhi has emphasised on dialogue and diplomacy along with restraint to deal with the situation arising out of the Hamas-Israel conflict.
The balance of power will shift to the East as India and China continue to grow over the next decades, says a leading American business magazine.
Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran on Thursday said the economy is expected to grow at 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal notwithstanding deficient rains in August. India recorded economic growth of 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of 2023-24 against 13.1 per cent in the year-ago period. India's economy in Q1 grew at the fastest pace in a year, on the shoulders of a boost in capital expenditure both at central and state levels, along with stronger consumption demand, especially in rural areas, and improved performance in the services sector, he said.
The financial and commodity markets will continue to roil, as China's growth moderates and readjustments are made.
The RBI on Thursday said banks' gross NPA ratio has fallen to a sever-year low of 5 per cent and the banking system remains sound and well-capitalised. In the 26th issue of the Financial Stability Report (FSR), the RBI also said the global economy is facing formidable headwinds with recessionary risks looming large. The interplay of multiple shocks has resulted in tightened financial conditions and heightened volatility in financial markets, it pointed out.
There is a need for coordination among emerging economies on managing capital flows and exchange rates, and China's exchange rate policy can help. That it is ready to be more flexible is welcome
'We continue to believe that the global economy will narrowly avoid a recession, despite expecting the US, Canada, and most of Europe to fall into recession at some point over the next year or so.'
India recorded economic growth of 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of 2023-24 against 13.1 per cent in the year-ago period, as per the National Statistical Office (NSO) data released on Thursday. India remains the fastest-growing major economy as China's GDP growth in the April-June quarter was 6.3 per cent.
'IT companies do not have a large presence there either in terms of market and team. So, the impact of the war will be minimal. But West Asia is an emerging economy.'
India's exports contracted by 22 per cent, the steepest decline in the last three years, to $32.97 billion in June on account of global demand slowdown, especially in the Western markets like the US and Europe. According to the data of the commerce ministry, the trade deficit in June stood at $20.3 billion against $22.07 billion in the same month last year due to a fall in exports and imports. The inbound shipments during the month under review declined by a steep 17.48 per cent to $53.10 billion.
Global rating agency S&P on Tuesday said even though the US and the Euro zone are headed to recession, India is unlikely to face the impact given the "not so coupled" nature of its economy with the global economy. "Indian economy is a lot decoupled from the global economy than we normally think of, given its large domestic demand, even though you (India) are a net importer of energy. "But you have enough forex reserves on one hand and your companies have managed to maintain healthy balance sheets," Paul F Gruenwald, S&P global chief economist and managing director, told reporters in Mumbai.
With 1.35 billion users of its Internet social network, Facebook Inc would rank as the world's second-most populous nation if it were a country.
On the Ukraine conflict, Modi said, "Some people say that we are neutral. But we are not neutral. We are on the side of peace." "All countries should respect international law and the sovereignty of countries," he said.
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday opted for a pause second time in a row, maintaining key benchmark policy rate at 6.5 per cent as inflation moderates. The rate increase cycle was paused in April after six consecutive rate hikes aggregating to 250 basis points since May 2022. Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously decided to keep the rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent.
An improvement in political relations, anchored in a restoration of peace and tranquillity at the border, could open up opportunities for expanded economic and commercial relations between them, suggests former foreign secretary Ambassador Shyam Saran.
In his last 'Mann ki Baat' broadcast of the year, Modi said many people are on a vacation or will go on one during Christmas and New Year and urged them to follow protocols like wearing masks and washing hands to ensure that their enjoyment is not affected adversely by the virus.
In a significant move to enhance its strategic resource security, India has officially released its first-ever critical minerals list, identifying 30 key critical minerals crucial to the nation's economic growth and technological development. This pioneering step aims at reducing import dependence, enhancing supply-chain resilience, and supporting the country's net-zero objectives. Union Minister Parliamentary Affairs, Coal and Mines Pralhad Joshi, while releasing the Critical Minerals for India report in New Delhi on Wednesday, said, "India is readying for an Atmanirbhar Bharat."
The minister said this underlying resentment and pain of those countries regarding the global economy was building up for the last 15-20 years and the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine conflict resulted in prices of energy and food items going up.
In his opening remarks at the G20 Leaders' Summit at the Bharat Mandapam in New Delhi, Modi said the 21st century is a time of giving new direction to the world.
Rebalance your portfolio in case it has become overweight on equities vis-a-vis your strategic asset allocation.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday made a fresh push for reforms in global institutions, including the United Nations, asserting that the world's 'new realities' should be reflected in 'new global structure' as it is nature's law that those who don't change with times lose their relevance.
Despite two interest rate cuts from the Fed, concerns about the strength of the economy and the persistence of the credit crunch have so far kept high-yield bonds -- or junk bonds -- under pressure. Look at the closed-end funds, in particular. The gap between the value of the bonds held by these funds -- their net asset values -- and their market price is at historic highs.
President Biden has been forced to turn his attention to domestic politics, as he works to hash out a deal with Republicans to prevent the US from defaulting on its debts at the end of this month.
Moody's on Friday slashed India's GDP growth projections for 2022 to 7 per cent from 7.7 per cent earlier as the global slowdown and rising domestic interest rates will dampen economic momentum. This is the second time that Moody's Investors Service has cut India's growth estimates. In September, it had cut projections for the current year to 7.7 per cent from 8.8 per cent estimated in May. "For India, the 2022 real GDP growth projections have been lowered to 7 per cent from 7.7 per cent.
India's economy is projected to slow to 6.5 per cent in the fiscal year starting April but will remain the fastest growing major economy in the world as it fared better in dealing with the extraordinary set of challenges the globe has faced, the Economic Survey 2022-23 said on Tuesday. India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 6.5 per cent in 2023-24 compares with an estimated 7 per cent expansion in current fiscal year (April 2022 to March 2023) and 8.7 per cent in the previous year. Like the rest of the world, India too faced an extraordinary set of challenges in tightening financial conditions and supply chain disruptions from a prolonged war in Europe but "withstood them better than most economies", the annual document detailing the state of the economy said.
India has been relatively insulated from the severe headwinds in the West. However, with a third of the global economy expected to slip into recession in calendar year 2023, the impact will strongly be felt on India's exports and trade economy, leading economists said in a panel discussion at the Business Standard BFSI Insight Summit in Mumbai on Wednesday. The panel comprised former Reserve Bank of India executive director and former Monetary Policy Committee member Mridul Saggar, State Bank of India Chief Economic Advisor Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Citibank India Chief Economist Samiran Chakraborty, ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar, and IndusInd Bank Chief Economist Gaurav Kapoor. The topic of the panel discussion was No recession in sight: Is India decoupled from developed economies?
A third of the global economy will be in recession this year, the IMF chief has said, and warned that 2023 will be "tougher" than last year as the US, EU and China will see their economies slow down. Kristalina Georgieva, the chief of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) made these grim assertions on Sunday during a CBS news programme "Face the Nation." It comes at a time when the ongoing conflict in Ukraine shows no signs of abating after more than 10 months, with spiralling inflation, higher interest rates and the surge in coronavirus infections in China fuelled by the Omicron variant.
Equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty declined nearly 1 per cent on Friday, in tandem with a weak trend in overseas markets amid hawkish tone of global central banks. The 30-share BSE Sensex fell 461.22 points or 0.75 per cent to settle at 61,337.81. During the day, it tumbled 506.5 points or 0.81 per cent to 61,292.53.
Those who consider the rupee as a proxy for virility have started thumping their chests and dreaming of dethroning the dollar from its coveted position, observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday announced the adoption of the New Delhi Leaders Declaration, a significant victory for India's G20 presidency that came amid increasing tensions and divergent views over the Ukraine conflict.
Indices across Indian equity markets have edged towards new record highs before undergoing a small correction in the past few sessions. The National Stock Exchange Nifty has gained 20 per cent in the past year; mid-caps (up 33 per cent), small-caps (up 31 per cent), and micro-caps (up 44 per cent) have done better. Several factors have precipitated this rally.
Ahead of the Union Budget for 2023-24, Budget makers have welcomed the global consensus view that India will remain one of the bright spots in calendar year 2023. But there is some alarm over the grim global situation and how that might impact the Centre's projections and assessments for next financial year. The big global headwinds include a deep and sustained recession in the West, including India's biggest trading partners in North America and Europe, continuing volatility in commodity markets, and renewed Covid-19 fears, as lifting of strict curbs by China could potentially lead to a massive spread again.
RBI's projection of retail inflation at 6.8 per cent in the current fiscal is neither too high to deter private consumption, nor so low as to weaken inducement to invest, the Economic Survey said on Tuesday. However, entrenched inflation may prolong the tightening cycle and therefore, borrowing costs may stay 'higher for longer', it said. The Economic Survey 2022-23 was tabled in Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.
Equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty faced heavy drubbing on Thursday, falling over 1 per cent each, in tandem with weak global markets following the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and its hawkish stance. The 30-share BSE Sensex tanked 878.88 points or 1.40 per cent to settle at 61,799.03. During the day, it tumbled 962.3 points or 1.53 per cent to 61,715.61.
'I don't see any major setback for the Indian markets post the US Fed event.'
Moody's Investors Service on Wednesday raised India's economic growth estimate for 2023 to 5.5 per cent from 4.8 per cent pegged earlier, on the back of a sharp increase in capital expenditure in the Budget and a resilient economic momentum. It however revised downwards India's growth estimate for 2022 to 6.8 per cent from 7 per cent pegged in November last year. In its February update to Global Macro Outlook 2023-24, Moody's raised the baseline 2023 real growth projections "meaningfully" for several G20 economies, including the US, Canada, the Euro area, India, Russia, Mexico, and Turkiye, accounting for a stronger end to 2022.
National Security Advisor Ajit Doval on Wednesday said that the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation members should respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity and seek no unilateral military superiority in adjacent areas.
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