'...The more the Pakistan army becomes weaker, then there is every possibility that terrorist groups may create more anarchy in Pakistan.'
Despite persisting questions among peer officers in the army about his professional competence and ethics, after his recent 'triumphal' Kabul sojourn, Faiz Hameed remains the hot favourite of both General Bajwa and Prime Minister Imran Khan, notes Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing.
Pakistan still has to acquire the patience you need in a democracy. The patience to accept that even if I do not like the government I have, I must wait till the next election to change it, explains Shekhar Gupta.
Keeping trusted men in key positions at Lahore, Rawalpindi and Peshawar has become vital for Bajwa, notes Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
The Pakistan army is staring at the greatest, scariest, existential threat to its power in their country. This threat has come from a populist riding democratic power, observes Shekhar Gupta.
There has always been a risk-taking edge to Imran Khan. Like him or hate him, it had to be someone like him to finally threaten to demolish the Pakistani establishment, explains Shekhar Gupta.
Lieutenant General Faiz Hameed, who has been replaced as ISI chief, will remain in the forefront of Pakistani initiatives in Afghanistan as also in the peace talks with the Tehrik e Taliban, Pakistan. He will also get a year plus to serve in a corps command, remaining in the race for selection as the next army chief when General Bajwa retires in November 2022, explains Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing.
'They have succeeded in killing Benazir. They will now step up their efforts to eliminate Musharraf. Whoever was responsible for killing her could not have done it without inside complicity.'
How Pakistan army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa deals with the ensuing reshuffle of lieutenant generals would be interesting to watch, notes Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
The Taliban is showing its strong discontent as the high hopes given to it by the Pakistani military have been dashed, observes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
India needs to shed its policy of lethargy and inhibitions to engage the Taliban with an intent to maintain its influence in Afghanistan. This would not just put a spanner in Pakistani designs, but also incentivise the Taliban not to be the puppets of GHQ, Rawalpindi, asserts Colonel Nikhil Apte (retd), who served on the Af-Pak desk at the Military Operations Directorate.
'Jaish looked to creating regional mayhem, at a time when peace appeared more likely, and when that peace would have threatened Jaish's existence.'
Delhi has come to accept the Taliban takeover in Kabul as a reality and seems increasingly unsure of its dogmatic view of the Taliban as a mere proxy of the Pakistani military and security establishment, observes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
'The simultaneous fire from so many guns rained down on the enemy and pulverised them, a sight I can never forget till my last breath.'
Pakistan Interior Minister Rehman Malik has claimed that the Punjabi Taliban are preparing for a massive terror attack in the country.
'There is a sense of realism in the Pakistan army that if they needled India during the Ladakh standoff, they would have seen a strong retaliation.' 'Pakistan was hoping that India would come out looking weaker in the region and get embarrassed, but that obviously has not happened.'
Remember the US withdrawal agreement was signed in February 2020. In the intervening period, a proper evacuation plan ought to have been in place. It was not. Consequently, tens of thousands of Afghans who had worked as interpreters, drivers, suppliers of goods and services, etc, face brutal retribution from the Taliban, Virendra Kapoor points out.
Lieutenant General Faiz Hamid will take to his new command as duck to water, notes Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
Shaun Gregory, a professor at Britain's Bradford University and an expert on Pakistan's nuclear weapons, said though severely bruised in its own back yard, the Pakistan Army is the only determining factor that stands between the nuclear weapons and terrorist organizations such as the Al-Qaeda and the Taliban.
If the Taliban have proved one thing over these two decades, it is that they are way smarter than their big brother, observes Shekhar Gupta.
But why should India be talking to the Taliban in the first place? There is no love lost there. India will never forget or forgive the humiliation to which the Taliban subjected it in the IC-814 hijack, notes Shekhar Gupta.
The new ISI chief Lt Gen Mukhtar possesses a vast experience in the field of intelligence and has headed the counter-terrorism wing of the spy agency in Islamabad. He was commissioned in the Armoured Corps regiment in 1983.
Experts trace the reasons for the 26/11 attacks to the Pakistan's military interest in three key areas: Kashmir, Afghanistan and nuclear armaments.
Modi's hardline policy towards Pakistan and J&K has created numerous leverages and bargaining positions that New Delhi can bring to the bargaining table and translate into concessions, argues Ajai Shukla.
'Given the past practice in the Pakistan army, this delay is most unusual,' notes Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
'Rawalpindi must downsize its quest for 'strategic depth' in Afghanistan and Kashmir,' suggests Matein Khalid.
'Here in Delhi, the Modi government is supposedly looking at 'options' to hit back at Pakistan in any whichever way it can, while in Washington, the Obama administration is looking for ways to strengthen US military cooperation with Pakistan,' says Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
'A resurgent Jaish could be a reflection of the Pakistani security establishment's view that with the region moving ever closer to a post-US Afghanistan, it is time to redirect attention to Kashmir.'
'He has a splendid opportunity to capitalise on the CPEC and turn the economy around decisively, putting Pakistan firmly on a higher growth trajectory.' 'Indeed, under the Imran-Bajwa dispensation, there has been a noticeable whittling down of support to militant groups,' points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
'Listing Masood Azhar as a 'global terrorist' was done with Islamabad and Imran Khan's concurrence.' 'It was not prompted by the so-called 'Wuhan spirit'.' 'The relationship between the two 'iron brothers' has not been dented,' points out former RA&W officer and China expert Jayadeva Ranade.
'The problem with India and Pakistan can be solved by Pakistan by ceasing its support for Islamist terrorists operating in India, letting go of its baseless demands upon Kashmir, ceasing its support for terrorists attacking India assets in Afghanistan.'
Lt Gen Haroon Aslam of the Pakistan Army on Thursday resigned a day after he was superseded by his two juniors who were made the new army chief and the chairman joint chief of staff committee.
Nawaz Sharif may have permitted the trial of Jaish-e-Mohammed terrorists for the Pathankot attack. But this fell apart because of General Raheel Shareef's keenness to make Kulbhushan Jadhav the centerpiece of global attention. Ambassador G Parthasarthy, a former Indian high commissioner to Pakistan, reveals the Pakistan army chief's gambit against India.
India is not making a choice of war over peace. Rather it is at war, a war thrust on it by a sick militaristic State, says Sankrant Sanu.
'India in 2020 is a lot better prepared than in 1962.' 'It is no longer a pushover; and anything other than a crushing Chinese military victory will be a major loss of face for China,' observes Rajeev Srinivasan in the first of a three part column.
'Imran Khan would only have spoken with the full awareness of Modi's complex political personality.' 'He has the great advantage of being privy to the confidential exchanges between then Pakistan prime minister Nawaz Sharif and Modi during the latter's celebrated surprise visit to Lahore in December 2015 as well as the 'back channel' conversations between the national security advisors of the two countries,' says Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
'An operation such as the Mumbai attacks, which needed expert technical assessment, money and time to prepare, could not have been carried out without the knowledge of the ISI's leadership.'
Should India engage Pakistan's generals directly, bypassing Imran? Ambassador G Parthasarathy, India's former high commissioner to Pakistan, ponders Delhi's diplomatic dilemma.
Pakistan has taken too much of a chance with Pulwama - with the wrong government in India, and at the wrong time.
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