The narrative on China is changing post the recent stimulus measures, and it will be hard for global investors to ignore the Chinese markets.
With the earnings season drawing to a close, stock markets will take cues from global trends and foreign investors' trading activity this week, analysts said. The US FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) minutes will be the major highlight this week, experts said. "This week, there are fewer cues on the macro and micro fronts, as the Q1 earnings season has concluded.
IT services major HCL Technologies (HCLTech) on Monday reported a 10.51 per cent increase in consolidated net profit to Rs 4,235 crore in July-September quarter of FY25, as the company raised the lower band of its growth guidance on the back of better-than-expected performance. The Noida-headquartered firm had posted a net profit of Rs 3,832 crore in the year-ago period. HCLTech increased the lower band of its revenue growth guidance to 3.5-5 per cent year-on-year in constant currency, against a guidance of 3-5 per cent in the first quarter.
'Investors looking at the next 6-12 months can be certain that the Fed will maintain its easing cycle, and we expect the overall environment to be conducive for fixed income investments for portfolio diversification.'
Reports (not denied by India) that the USA had 'for the first time provided real-time details to their Indian counterparts on the Chinese positions and force strength in advance of a PLA incursion' into Tawang at the LAC in December 2022, helping India thwart China's expansionist designs, show how operationally effective the USA-India friendship has become on the ground. A engaging excerpt from Sreeram Chaulia's must-read new book, Friends: India's Closest Strategic Partners.
The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is the biggest event that would drive sentiments in the domestic stock market this week, besides a host of macroeconomic data from the global front and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. The Indian equity market had an exceptional last week, with both the Nifty and Sensex hitting their all-time high levels on Thursday.
TVS Motor Company met expectations in terms of revenue and posted a strong margin performance in Q1FY25. The key drivers were material cost savings and a better mix. The domestic demand outlook looks good with a rural rebound but geopolitical uncertainties in key export markets may dent overall growth.
'Invest only in stocks of those companies that deliver on earnings and there is earnings visibility too for the next few quarters.'
'Future market gains will likely depend primarily on earnings growth.'
'If you look at where inflation (headline and core) is today in India and where the rates are, there's clearly room to cut rates.'
India should encourage the second coming of SAARC with climate change as an urgent agenda and keeping Indian security concerns in mind as the subtext, suggest Lieutenant General Ashok Joshi (retd) and Colonel Anil Athale (retd).
There's also Call Me Bae, Ananya Panday's OTT debut.
'While my generation carries with it the memory of the Chinese perfidy of 1962, this generation will carry the memory of Chinese perfidy in Galwan.'
Gold prices have been on an uptrend in the last few months, rising nearly 28 per cent to $2387 per ounce now. This rise in gold price, according to Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, is attributed to the demand from China amid lack of investor euphoria as regards the yellow metal. "Recent developments show a distinct lack of investor euphoria as regards gold, the question remains what is driving the current rally.
Exports of 19 major commodities, including petroleum products, coal and marine items, saw growth in terms of volume during April 2023-February 2024, even as they witnessed contraction in value terms during the same period. Government officials said the rise in export volume despite a decline in value implies that these commodities show a stronger market demand.
Geopolitical events, macroeconomic data and quarterly earnings of corporates would guide the stock market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Stock markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Ram Navami. "This week promises to be crucial for the market as fresh worries about a potential conflict between Iran and Israel emerge.
'Trump will absolutely back New Delhi on its position that Pakistan must do more to crack down on terrorists that threaten India.'
The Biden administration's failure in stopping two major wars and several minor ones was seen as a major disaster by many Americans and the world at large, observes Ambassador T P Sreenivasan.
Investors' wealth eroded by Rs 9.51 lakh crore on Monday morning, following a crash in equity markets where the benchmark Sensex tanked over 2,400 points, mirroring a sharp plunge in global peers. The 30-share BSE benchmark tanked 2,401.49 points to 78,580.46 in early trade. Following the sharp decline in equities, the market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms dropped by Rs 9,51,771.37 crore to Rs 4,47,65,174.76 crore ($5.35 trillion) during the morning trade.
Pressure is mounting for a resolution to be moved in the assembly when it meets next week for its maiden sitting to demand 'restoration of Article 370 and Article 35A' as committed in the National Conference's election manifesto, reveals Mohammad Sayeed Malik, the distinguished commentator on Kashmir affairs.
India's second nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine was commissioned into the Navy on Thursday in the presence of Defence Minister Rajnath Singh who said this will further strengthen the country's nuclear triad and enhance nuclear deterrence.
Gold is an excellent asset class for diversification and should be included in all long-term portfolios.
'A 10 to 15 per cent allocation to gold in portfolios reduces risk without compromising on potential returns.'
China does not have to give up what it took in 2020, it will never give up its claim to Arunachal Pradesh, Ladakh and other areas, and it has all the time now to plan its next surprise, points out Lieutenant General Prakash Katoch (retd).
Kamala has finessed bubblegum conversation about whether she is Black or Indian. Her Irrelevancing-approach, an Irrelevance-code if you will, is Elevated and Elegant -- this is the Elevance of Kamala! asserts economist Dr Anuradha Luther Maitra.
From the 30 Sensex pack, State Bank of India, Mahindra & Mahindra, Bharti Airtel, Titan, HDFC Bank, IndusInd Bank, Axis Bank and Bajaj Finance were the biggest laggards. JSW Steel, Tech Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro, Hindustan Unilever, HCL Technologies and Reliance Industries were among the gainers from the pack.
Asia's richest man Mukesh Ambani on Thursday said his oil-to-telecom-and-retail conglomerate is not seeking short-term profit but is in the business of creating wealth for the nation. Speaking at the company's annual shareholder meeting, he said all businesses of Reliance Industries Ltd continue to be key drivers of the Indian economy and have become a success story. "We are not in the business of pursuing short-term profit and hoarding wealth. "We are in the business of creating wealth for India," he said.
The Reserve Bank is unlikely to cut the benchmark interest rate in its forthcoming bi-monthly monetary policy review later in the week as retail inflation is still a cause of concern, and there is a possibility of the Middle East crisis deteriorating further, impacting crude oil and commodity prices, say experts.
'China did not expect India to show such strategic resolve in defending its territorial integrity.'
'Whether I am optimistic or pessimistic is not the issue; I am just going by the evidence available.' 'The Indian economy and financial sector are now well-placed and very resilient in dealing with any kind of spillover coming from the external world.'
Container prices have shot up by up to 300 per cent in the past one month owing to geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran following the former's attack on Hamas, causing shortages and pushing consumer durables companies to increase prices. Companies have planned increases but some are yet to decide on the extent of the increase.
Truck movements across the India-Bangladesh border are on the rise, with increasing rentals signalling a trade recovery between the two South Asian nations. Yet, geopolitical tension looms large, with Bangladesh now under an interim government for nearly two months.
'Trump's disregard for norms and institutions could prove very costly for America's social fabric.'
'Tensions and dialogue are likely to go hand-in-hand with China.' 'The goal should be to cultivate power so that one can negotiate from a position of strength.'
Research and development (R&D) spending by BSE 100 companies has grown steadily, rising from 0.89 per cent of revenue in FY20 to 1.32 per cent in FY24, averaging around 1 per cent over the period in-between, according to data compiled from Bloomberg and company annual reports. Also, these companies more than doubled their R&D spending in absolute terms over these five years: From Rs 25,041 crore to Rs 63,072 crore. While this reflects a prioritisation of innovation, corporate R&D investment remains relatively conservative.
'In the new coalition government, India's reform agenda may prioritise job creation and factor market reforms.'
'India represents one of the top opportunities with robust growth, solid fundamentals, and openness to foreign investment.'
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has identified "climate shocks" as a risk to food inflation rates and overall price rise while stating that the outlook for the country's economic growth remains bright. In its Annual Report for 2023-24, released on Thursday, the central bank said easing supply-chain pressures, broad-based softening in core inflation, and early indications of an above-normal southwest monsoon meant well for the inflation outlook in 2024-25. "The increasing incidence of climate shocks, however, imparts considerable uncertainty to the food inflation and overall inflation outlook," said the RBI while noting headline inflation moderated by 1.3 percentage points on an annual average basis to 5.4 per cent in 2023-24.
'Will President Dissanayake calibrate his foreign policy taking into account India's immediate security concerns? We need to watch.'
Concerns have been raised over Marico's exposure to Bangladesh in the wake of turmoil in that country. However, the management reiterated expectations of growing domestic business at double digits and maintaining international growth. Marico scaled up its food business by 4 times between FY20-24 and aims to double it again in the next three financial years.
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