Driven by GST reforms, robust festive demand, and softening raw material prices, the FMCG industry expects volume-based growth, supported by a mid-single digit revenue rise and improved operating margins in the December quarter.
Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies are expected to report mid-single-digit revenue growth in the July-September 2025-26 quarter, according to their quarterly updates. Most companies also noted that supply chains were focused on liquidating existing stock ahead of the implementation of new goods and services tax (GST) rates in categories where the tax was lowered.
Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL) had a disappointing third quarter (Q3FY25) with flat volumes (after 7 per cent growth H1FY25). Price hikes will be required to maintain margins to offset the cost of palm oil inflation. However, some analysts see Q3 as an exception with strong volume growth expected to resume and it may be the fastest growing FMCG player in FY26.
The stock of Godrej Consumer Products Limited (GCPL) fell about 3.7 per cent in trade after its Q3FY24 earnings disappointed brokerages and led to downgrades. Further, the stock, after a 15 per cent run-up over the past month prior to Monday's correction, had already factored in the upside from the business front. Its peer in the consumer space, Marico, too, saw a 4 per cent drop in its stock price.
After stepping down from the board with effect from September 30, he will remain as Chairman Emeritus of the FMCG firm, according to a statement issued on Wednesday. The 79-year-old industrialist passed on the baton of GCPL to his younger daughter Nisaba Godrej in 2017 after leading the company for 17 years.
Leading FMCG companies reported a decline in margins in the September quarter on account of higher input costs and food inflation, which ultimately slowed down the pace of urban consumption. Rising prices of commodity inputs such as palm oil, coffee and cocoa were also accentuated and some FMCG firms have hinted at a price hike. HUL, Godrej Consumer Products Ltd (GCPL), Marico, ITC, and Tata Consumer Products Ltd (TCPL) have expressed concerns over squeezing urban consumption, which according to industry experts forms 65-68 per cent of FMCG total sales.
Godrej Consumer Products Ltd (GCPL) reported a 2 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) increase in consolidated revenue to Rs 3,670 crore. Organic revenue growth in constant currency was up 14 per cent Y-o-Y. Consolidated operating profit was up 5 per cent to Rs 760 crore, profit before tax grew 10 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 710 crore, and adjusted net profit grew 12 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 490 crore.
Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL) reported 6 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) consolidated net revenue growth in Q4FY24 to Rs 3,385 crore and this was impacted adversely by currency movement. The constant currency (CC) growth would have been 30 per cent Y-o-Y in Q4FY24. India business clocked 12 per cent Y-o-Y revenue growth (5 per cent of it organic) with volume growth of 15 per cent Y-o-Y (7 per cent organic).
With crude palm oil prices on the rise, companies have started to jack up rates of soaps and edible oils in order to pass on the hike to consumers. Crude palm oil, one of the main ingredients in the manufacture of some consumer goods, saw a price rise of 45.2 per cent in the last three months. One of the country's largest consumer companies, Hindustan Unilever, said it has already started to take price increases in the skin cleansing category.
The FMCG industry hopes for a revival in consumption growth in 2025 with some 'green shoots' already visible, after having a challenging year amid escalating input costs and a double-digit rise in food inflation, which ultimately slowed down the pace of the urban market growth in the second half of 2024. Soaring prices of commodities such as palm oil, coffee, cocoa and wheat forced FMCG players to go for a hike of 3 to 5 per cent or resort to shrinkflation by reducing pack sizes and grammage to retain attractive price points, fearing a volume loss.
Jamshyd Naoroji Godrej and his sister Smita Crishna Godrej-controlled Godrej & Boyce will hold the exclusive construction rights over a vast land bank, including a prime 3,000 acre-property in Mumbai, they got as part of the family agreement that split the Godrej empire, as per sources and regulatory filing. According to the agreement reached late Tuesday, the 127-year-oldgets to keep what group will be split into two entities - one led by Adi Godrej and his brother Nadir and the other by their cousins Jamshyd and Smita.
In a move towards gender inclusion, Tamil Nadu has partnered Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL) to offer a 5 per cent job reservation for LGBTQAI+ and people with disabilities at GCPL's upcoming fast-moving consumer goods manufacturing unit in Thiruporur in Chengalpattu district. According to industry experts and activists, while companies acknowledge transgender communities, this is the first time the entire spectrum of gender minorities, including lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer/questioning (one's sexual or gender identity), asexual and intersex, is receiving such a notable share of job participation in the private sector while signing memoranda of understanding with states.
The FMCG sector is generally considered to be a safe haven during difficult times as people never stop buying soap and toothpaste. However, weak rural and semi-urban demand has been a factor since the lockdowns of 2020-21 while rising inflation has also impacted margins. While the FMCG majors have survived on the basis of price hikes and good management practices, they have seen growth slowdowns and experienced margins being squeezed as raw materials and transport costs rose. The FMCG sector witnessed positive volume growth in the fourth quarter of the 2022-23 financial year (Q4FY23) after five consecutive quarters of decline, and the rebound in demand was led by urban markets.
The recent equity market weakness has sobered up investor mood, but the coming festive season is keeping analysts upbeat on stocks related to the consumption basket. Among the lot, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), retail, and consumer electronics segments are expected to do well over the next few months, and investors should thus selectively take bets in these pockets, analysts suggest. "We expect good volume growth for the FMCG sector during the festive season with some improvement in rural demand.
Hindustan Unilever (HUL), one of the country's largest fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) players, is learnt to have cut prices of its leading soaps and detergents this month by 2-19 per cent, according to the company's distributors. The cuts come after consistent price increases by the company as well as its peers, following the sharp rise in raw material prices in the past several months. It is only recently that prices of raw materials have started to correct from peak levels in the June quarter.
A weak margin outlook in the near term and lack of fresh triggers may keep the Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL) stock under pressure. The stock, after tepid September quarter (Q2) results and marginal downward revision in earnings estimates, declined 3.5 per cent in trade on Friday. Though consolidated sales of the company, which owns the Goodknight and Cinthol brands, grew 8.5 per cent year-on-year (YoY), its operating profit declined because of the sharp contraction in margins.
Leading FMCG companies in the country are expecting their sales growth numbers in high double digit in the April-June quarter, a period when the broader market was severely impacted by the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. FMCG companies such as Godrej Consumer Products Ltd (GCPL) and Marico, in their quarterly updates to bourses, informed about double-digit sales growth. While Tata Consumer Products Ltd (TCPL) MD and CEO Sunil D'Souza in an interview had told PTI, the Tata Group FMCG firm expects higher growth in the Q1/FY'22 over Q4/FY'21.
The 79-year-old industrialist will continue to serve as chairman of the Godrej Group and chairman emeritus of GIL, said the statement. "Nadir Godrej, who is currently managing director of GIL, will take over as chairman and managing director of the company," it added.
Adi Godrej, 75, will become chairman emeritus after leading the company for 17 years as Nisaba, currently executive director of the company, assumes the new role of executive chairperson at Godrej Consumer Products on May 10, 2017.
Asked about the possible size of acquisitions, GCPL said,"The company is open to deals which are valued up to Rs 1,000 crore."
The first to see price hikes will be soaps. In the past six months, domestic palm oil prices have increased by 46 per cent. Palm oil is a key input going into soaps.
"Both domestic and international business grew well this quarter. Growth in net sales of the domestic business was close to 50 per cent, while the international business saw nearly a three-fold growth during the same period. Our international acquisitions have played a role in helping us register good numbers this quarter."
"If at all Godrej plans to buy out the global household business of Sara Lee, there will be strong competition from multinationals like Unilever and P&G. So, it is unlikely that GCPL will go ahead with it," a research analyst from Religare Capital Markets said.
In what will be a cross-country movement of products, Godrej Consumer Private Ltd (GCPL) may introduce some of its international brands in India this year. The move is aimed at securing its presence at the premium end of the personal care market, a segment it is not too strong in.
Data from market research agency Nielsen shows that 152 new players entered the hygiene market in March as the lockdown was implemented to contain the spread of the coronavirus disease. The trend is expected to continue, the agency says, as hygiene and health emerge as key themes.
To achieve the target, the company will go in for inorganic growth and this will be partly funded by the proposed Rs 400 crore (Rs 4 billion) rights issue. It has started scouting for acquisitions in hair colour business in the developing markets.
As the second wave of the pandemic ebbs and the daily caseload falls, the struggles of the urban poor have come into focus. Many have suffered income and job losses after two successive waves. The second wave, in particular, has seen the poor being hit hard on account of lack of medical and financial help. For the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies this has meant that an important segment is under severe distress.
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Godrej Consumer Products, the hair colours and soaps major, intends to increase its contribution from rural sales to 50 per cent in one year, from 38 per cent right now. In an interview with Pradipta Mukherjee, GCPL vice-chairman Hoshedar K Press says that among other plans, the company is targeting consolidation of its FMCG businesses and is banking on goods and services tax implementation, which would enable it to have common depot and supply chain strategies.
From paints to apparel and lifestyle majors, brewers, distillers and fragrance makers have stepped into the market, even as the frontline companies including FMCG players, pharma and healthcare majors were the first to seize the opportunity created by Covid-19.
Vivek Gambhir revels in his two-city life between the Godrej-owned flagship in Mumbai and his own family in New Delhi.
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