Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, experienced declines in early trade due to escalating tensions between the US and Iran, which led to a surge in crude oil prices and weak global equity trends.
India's GST revenues experienced significant growth in March, reaching pre-tax cut levels, driven by increased imports and domestic sales. The report analyses the impact of tax rate changes and provides insights into future trends and economic stability.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty closed lower, snapping a two-day rally, as a spike in crude oil prices, triggered by reports of fresh US military operations in southern Iran, dampened investor sentiment and reignited fears of renewed energy supply disruptions.
S&P Global Ratings projects India's economic growth to slow to 6.6 per cent in FY27, down from 7.7 per cent in FY26, citing energy stress and a potential sub-par monsoon.
Pakistan has increased its defence budget by 17.6 per cent to PKRs 3,000 billion for the upcoming fiscal year, as announced by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb. The federal budget, estimated at PKRs 18,771 billion, targets 4 per cent GDP growth, with significant allocations for debt service and pensions. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif highlighted economic stability and ongoing discussions with the IMF, while the opposition protested Imran Khan's incarceration during the budget session.
Global oil prices fell on Thursday to their lowest levels since before the outbreak of the Iran conflict, offering a significant economic tailwind for India, the world's third-largest crude importer, by easing inflation risks, reducing the import bill and improving the government's fiscal position.
A recently finalised peace deal between the US and Iran, set to be signed on June 19, is expected to significantly benefit India's economy by boosting exports to West Asia, stabilising the rupee, and easing inflationary pressures, according to exporters and experts.
As India marks a decade of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), the focus is shifting towards enhancing efficiency through artificial intelligence, data sharing, and process simplification. The reform, which unified India's indirect tax system, has significantly broadened the tax base and boosted revenues, with future plans including a streamlined two-tier rate structure and continued technological integration to reduce compliance costs and combat evasion.
Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran stated that India's economy is projected to return to a 7 per cent-plus growth trajectory by 2027-28 (FY28), or sooner if external conditions improve, despite near-term challenges from the West Asia crisis.
The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has proposed a 20-point policy agenda to the finance ministry, including a conflict-linked emergency credit line guarantee scheme and tax rationalisation on energy inputs, to support MSMEs, exporters, and energy-intensive industries affected by the ongoing West Asia war.
Insights from behavioural economics suggest that an ambitious nudge can be effective if three conditions are met, points out Ram Singh Insights from behavioural economics suggest that an ambitious nudge can be effective if three conditions are met, points out Ram Singh, director, Delhi School of Economics.
India's economy registered a robust 7.7 per cent growth in the fiscal year 2025-26, an increase from 7.1 per cent in the previous year, with the January-March quarter alone seeing a 7.8 per cent expansion.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, following a ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, is expected to significantly ease India's crude oil supply risks, lower freight costs, and reduce inflationary pressures, as global oil prices have already dropped.
A prolonged supply shock can transmit to lower incomes, and dampen confidence and sentiment, warns Aditi Nayar, chief economist, head-research and outreach, ICRA.
The forthcoming Budget could think of maintaining public capital expenditure at 3 per cent so that domestic resources are available for private investments, points out N R Bhanumurthy.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a fiscal deficit target of 4.3% of GDP for FY27, continuing the path of fiscal consolidation. The government aims to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio to 55.6% by BE 2026-27 and further to around 50% by March 2031.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated that preventing second-round effects of supply shocks, where inflation expectations rise due to prolonged disruptions, is the primary role of monetary policy. He also defended the RBI's foreign exchange market interventions, asserting it did not commit to an 'indefensible peg'.
Force Motors Limited announced its highest-ever revenue and profitability for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, driven by growth across its Urbania, Trax, and Traveller platforms, as well as defence partnerships and international engine manufacturing.
India's toll collection growth is projected to moderate to 5-7 per cent year-on-year in FY27, a 150-200 basis points reduction, primarily due to the economic impact of the West Asia conflict and a slowdown in commercial traffic, according to Crisil Ratings.
Following the swearing-in of C Joseph Vijay as Tamil Nadu's chief minister, the new cabinet has pledged a 'white paper' audit of all state departments and a 'zero-interference' policy in administration, signalling a significant shift in governance.
'The BJP successfully merged governance with identity. That's a powerful combination in Assam's political context.'
The gems and jewellery industry anticipates challenging times following the government's decision to increase gold import duty to 15 per cent, a move that exporters warn could fuel the grey market and heighten smuggling risks.
Ashok Lahiri, a distinguished economist with experience in government, the private sector, and electoral politics, has been appointed as the new Vice-Chairman of NITI Aayog, tasked with strengthening India's reform trajectory and policy-making.
The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has urged the Indian government to gradually restore the Rs 10-per-litre cut in special additional excise duty on petrol and diesel over six to nine months. This move aims to relieve pressure on government finances as crude oil prices stabilise, without significantly impacting consumer sentiment.
'FPIs are unlikely to return unless there is equilibrium between valuation premium and earnings growth.'
A new report suggests that prolonged conflict in the Middle East could significantly impact India's GDP growth and inflation.
Pakistan's skewed foreign reserves got a major boost after Saudi Arabia pledged an additional $3 billion in deposits while extending its existing $5 billion facility for a further three years.
Indian stock markets are poised for volatility this week, driven primarily by the outcomes of five state assembly elections, ongoing high crude oil prices amid West Asia tensions, and the release of Q4 corporate earnings, according to market analysts.
CA Sumeet Mehta analyses the Union Budget 2026-2027, identifying key positives and negatives.
State-owned Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) are reportedly incurring losses of Rs 18 per litre on petrol and Rs 35 per litre on diesel, as they continue to absorb rising crude oil costs without increasing retail prices. This situation is leading to expectations of a fuel price hike after upcoming state elections.
Governments should move away from universal subsidies towards tightly targeted transfers, backed by stricter eligibility norms, sunset clauses and periodic audits to curb leakages and improve spending efficiency, a joint study by Asian Development Bank and PwC has recommended.
Global brokerage Bernstein has issued a cautionary note, stating that India risks 'under-delivering on its potential' unless it addresses key policy bottlenecks and structural risks, including employment challenges from AI, limited manufacturing gains, and rising welfare spending.
Brokerage Bernstein has warned Prime Minister Narendra Modi that India risks squandering recent economic gains unless it accelerates structural reforms, particularly in jobs, manufacturing and innovation.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has emphasised India's commitment to safe maritime transit and condemned attacks on merchant shipping amidst the ongoing West Asia conflict and global energy market disruptions.
The Indian government has maintained the interest rates on small savings schemes, including PPF and NSC, for the eighth consecutive quarter, starting April 1, 2026.
US President Donald Trump's signature will soon appear on US paper currency, coinciding with the 250th anniversary celebrations of American Independence.
The Indian rupee experienced a significant surge against the US dollar following the Reserve Bank of India's measures to restrict banks from onshore forward markets. Despite this, the rupee remains under pressure from foreign capital outflows, a strong dollar, and rising crude oil prices.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announces increased domestic LPG production to offset import disruptions caused by Middle East tensions, alongside assurances of fertiliser availability and the clearing of UPA-era oil bonds.
'In investing, poor sentiment is always a good vintage to build a portfolio.'
Analysts predict that the ongoing conflict in West Asia, crude oil prices, and global trends will significantly influence the Indian stock market in the upcoming holiday-shortened week. Foreign investor activity and rupee movement will also be crucial.
