The affordable housing segment may be seeing an uptick which is a good sign of consumption momentum. This is the biggest-ticket purchase for middle income and lower income families. The current activity is at least partly driven by a pause in interest rate hikes.
Petrol and diesel prices on Wednesday were hiked by 80 paise a litre each for the second day in a row since the ending of an over four-and-half month hiatus in rate revision. Petrol in Delhi will now cost Rs 97.01 per litre as against Rs 96.21 previously while diesel rate has gone up from Rs 87.47 per litre to Rs 88.27, according to a price notification of state fuel retailers.
When the world was upended by the Covid-19 pandemic, metals got its shine back. In the last two years, infrastructure spending by major economies spurred demand, energy transition and intermittent supply disruptions fuelled a scorching rally in metals after a downturn during the first Covid wave. Now, Russia's war on Ukraine is ensuring that elevated prices stay the course.
New Delhi's timing couldn't have been worse, both for India's fledgling electric vehicle (EV) sector and prospective electric bike buyers. It was hard to miss the perfect storm brewing for India's EV industry since early 2022. On one hand, you had several accidents involving battery fires that unnerved consumers; on the other, uncertainty had crept in over subsidies.
Petrol and diesel prices were hiked by 80 paise a litre each on Saturday, the fourth increase in five days as oil firms passed on to consumers the spike in cost of raw material. Petrol in Delhi will now cost Rs 98.61 per litre as against Rs 97.81 previously while diesel rates have gone up from Rs 89.07 per litre to Rs 89.87, according to a price notification of state fuel retailers. All the four increases since the ending of a four-and-half-month long hiatus in rate revision on March 22, have been of 80 paise a litre.
India always faces a Hobson's choice as far as feeding coal-fired generators goes - even if the government is reluctant to admit it. The country cannot do without shipping in the world's most polluting fuel from overseas. And it will continue to do so unless it decides to reduce demand by forcing citizens, farmers and businesses to live without electricity for part of the day, or use diesel generators to fire facilities.
Petrol price on Monday was hiked by 30 paise a litre and diesel by 35 paise, taking the total increase in rates in the last one week to Rs 4-4.10 per litre. Petrol in Delhi will now cost Rs 99.41 per litre as against Rs 99.11 previously while diesel rates have gone up from Rs 90.42 per litre to Rs 90.77, according to a price notification of state fuel retailers. Rates have been increased across the country and vary from state to state depending upon the incidence of local taxation.
Petrol price on Sunday was hiked by 50 paise a litre and diesel by 55 paise, taking the total increase in rates since resumption of daily price revision less than a week back to Rs 3.70-3.75 per litre. Petrol in Delhi will now cost Rs 99.11 per litre as against Rs 98.61 previously while diesel rates have gone up from Rs 89.87 per litre to Rs 90.42, according to a price notification of state fuel retailers. Rates have been increased across the country and vary from state to state depending upon the incidence of local taxation.
Size matters on the road. Small is not dominating India's car market any more. The share of cars priced up to Rs 5 lakh in the passenger vehicle market has fallen to 10.5 per cent in the first 11 months of 2021-22, compared with 26 per cent in 2018-19 (FY19), the lowest in four years, according to data from industry sources. Even the share of those in the price range between Rs 5 lakh and Rs 7.5 lakh has dropped to 32.4 per cent in the same period, from 34.9 per cent.
Painting a grim pictue of the retail real estate market, Crisil Research on Tuesday said retail rentals would further fall an average of six per cent in 2010 due to oversupply of mall spaces.
Between fiscals 2009 and 2014, India's energy import bill surged at an average 14 per cent annually to $161 billion.
After hike in rates of petrol, diesel and LPG, the prices of CNG and cooking gas piped to household kitchens (PNG) in the national capital were hiked on Thursday by Re 1. CNG price in NCT of Delhi has been increased to Rs 59.01 per kg from Rs 58.01, according to the information posted on the website of Indraprastha Gas Ltd - the firm which retails CNG and piped cooking gas in the national capital. This is the third increase in CNG rates this month, which follows a spike in input (natural gas) prices across the globe.
Crisil Research expects retail inflation to rise 60 basis points to 4 per cent this fiscal from 3.4 per cent in 2018-19.
'The levy proposed to be charged on air tickets for regional connectivity fund would marginally increase cost.'
The dreary, cold months from December to February may prove to be the undoing of many a nation as they grapple with sky-high fuel prices - a result of the Ukraine conflict and the pandemic. Many - Europe, South Korea, Japan, and China - will still pull through on the strength of their wealth or because of strong storage infrastructure. But India will have its back to the wall. Signs of liquefied natural gas (LNG) rates hitting new records this winter are already evident.
Petrol and diesel prices were hiked by 80 paise a litre each on Wednesday, taking the total increase in rates in 16 days to Rs 10 per litre.
The Rs 2 a litre cut in petrol and Re 1 per litre reduction in diesel prices, announced last week, will increase the loss on auto fuel sales by Rs 300 crore (Rs 3 billion), Crisil Research has said.
Investors are keenly awaiting the announcement of the macroeconomic data.
India's top fuel retailers IOC, BPCL and HPCL together lost around $2.25 billion (Rs 19,000 crore) in revenue for keeping petrol and diesel prices on hold during elections in five states, including Uttar Pradesh, Moody's Investors Services said on Thursday. State fuel retailers did not revise petrol and diesel rates for a record 137 days despite prices of crude oil (raw material for producing fuel) rising to $120 per barrel compared to around $82 in early November when the hiatus began. "Based on current market prices, the oil marketing companies are currently incurring a revenue loss of around $25 (over Rs 1,900) per barrel and $24 per barrel on sale of petrol and diesel, respectively," Moody's said in a report.
Ahead of the peak festive season, India's passenger vehicle makers are staring at a cumulative order backlog of nearly 500,000 units as chip shortage continues to cripple production. The crisis is forcing companies to change their production plans frequently and take a call on the variants they can manufacture based on the availability of semiconductors. The booking numbers are not a true reflection of demand, said manufacturers.
'The approach today is, instead of giving loans to 100 MSMEs, let us give one loan to a big-ticket corporate.' 'And so many of these big fish deceived the banks and the banks are in the doldrums now with high NPAs.'
On the profitability front, Crisil foresees a 0.5 per cent basis points y-o-y jump in EBITDA (operating profit) margins in Q2 FY15.
The stimulus package announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman "fails to involve" banks in the economic revival process, a member of the Reserve Bank of India's central board said on Wednesday. The stimulus package is "imaginative and forward looking, yet fails to involve banks as frontline warriors in revival of economy," Satish Marathe, a member of RBI's central board, said in a social media post.
India's appetite for imported crude oil may wane in fiscal year (FY) 2023 from record levels in pre-pandemic 2019-20 fiscal as higher oil prices, a spillover from the conflict in Ukraine, and increasing use of biofuels affect domestic demand for petroleum products. Brent crude surged to a nine-year high, shy of a July 2008 record $147.50 a barrel, before declining to around $100 a barrel - but the volatility in commodity rates will slow global economic growth and use of fuels. Demand for all oil products may grow at only 2-3 per cent in FY23, slower than the current fiscal and nearly half the 5.5 per cent growth estimated by the petroleum ministry, according to industry officials.
CRISIL predicts no more than 6.5 per cent yearly from now till FY19, and only with a stable and decisive government; predicts problems in job generation, poverty and demand.
India's jugalbandhi with coal and clean energy is coming unstuck, neither achieving adequate renewable generation nor ensuring sufficient coal-fired power in the quest to become a $5-trillion economy. Six months have elapsed since Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced an ambitious climate agenda for India at COP26 at Glasgow. The net zero emissions target by 2070 is a distant one, but there are nearer-term plans to meet 50 per cent of energy demand with renewables by 2030 by increasing capacity to 450 Gw. A cursory look at the balance sheet of India's climate progress since November reveals ponderous progress towards meeting the renewables target even as the country is scrambling to expand coal-fired generation in the face of a power crisis.
Nearly a decade ago, the first fully electric vehicle (EV) caught fire on the road in the US. It was a model from Tesla, the world's most admired EV maker. A metal fragment punctured the underbelly of the vehicle, penetrating its battery pack, leading to a fire. Indian lawmakers and automakers have had nine years to study the incident (in fact, three Tesla Model Ss caught fire in two months in 2013) but seem to have learnt little.
Russia's war on Ukraine has sent steel prices soaring to its highest levels in the domestic market since November 2021. But there is little cheer in the industry. That's because input costs are spiralling out of control, leaving the big boys nearly as high and dry as the small, medium and secondary steel producers. Russia and Ukraine are major providers of steel and raw materials to the world.
Rating firm Crisil revised downwards its GDP growth forecast to 5.5 per cent this fiscal from its earlier estimate of 6 per cent, citing reduced likelihood of monetary easing going forward due to falling rupee.
Auto component makers in India are bracing for a tough time. High absenteeism among workers owing to Covid-19, shortages of critical parts, and temporary closures of plants by automobile manufacturers have thrown a spanner in the works for the Rs 3.2-trillion sector, which derives 60 per cent of its revenues from automobile original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), with the balance split equally between replacement demand and exports. Car market leader Maruti Suzuki India on Saturday said it was extending the maintenance shutdown, which was from May 1 to 9, till May 16, "keeping in view the current pandemic situation". Some activities will continue in the plants.
A sharp rise in construction and funding costs will increase costs for builders and prevent a reduction in home prices.
The Crisil study covered 600 companies excluding financial services and oil companies, representing 71 per cent of the overall market capitalisation of India Inc.
Ratings agency Crisil on Monday cut its FY14 growth forecast for India to six per cent from the earlier 6.4 per cent citing a variety of reasons, including the high lending rates, weaker pick-up in consumption and issues around mining and project clearances.
LIC identifies the problems well, but what the markets will watch is how nimble it is with the solutions.
What could be more uncertain than Virat Kohli's agonising wait for a century for over two years? Perhaps it's what you will pay tomorrow morning to fill your vehicle's tank. Pump prices have joined cricket scores as the country's favourite discussion topic. Steep increases invite widespread protests, while moderate additions make the government anti-reformist. The ongoing fuel price conundrum is no different.
Revenue and profit contractions to continue till investment cycle does not revive.
India has a history of jugaad, and retrofitting vehicles is one such manifestation of the legendary Indian skill. Not so long ago autorickshaws and small Marutis used to strap on subsidised LPG cylinders and power themselves to a cheap ride. There were the odd explosions, lives were lost, but the jugaad continued. Then compressed natural gas (CNG) was introduced in Delhi following a court order. Initially, customised CNG kits were fitted to conventional (internal combustion engine or ICE) autos cheaply, enabling commuting at less than half of what you would cough up for diesel. The industry is better organised now with Suzuki and Hyundai designing CNG-fired vehicles, and Mahindra and TVS manufacturing liquefied petroleum gas (LPG)-powered three wheelers.
Investment in such companies exposes an investor to severe price volatility in case a promoter is not able to meet payments.
Revenues of Indian companies, excluding those engaged in banking and oil, are expected to grow marginally at 5-6 per cent in the first quarter of this fiscal.
Initial projections, at least, suggest that things are not looking good enough for India Inc, as margins are expected to soften further.
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