State Bank of India hikes lending rates, and other banks pick up the signal.
Citing the massive surge in Omicron infections and the resultant impact on overall economic activities in the March quarter, Swiss brokerage UBS Securities has revised downwards its India's growth forecast for the current financial year to 9.1 per cent from 9.5 per cent earlier. However, UBS Securities does not see the third wave impact extending to the next financial year as it has revised upwards its real GDP forecast to 8.2 per cent, up from 7.7 per cent earlier, expecting the real GDP growth to remain well above the historical average. The World Bank pegs it at 8.3 per cent, unchanged from its June assessment, saying the recovery is not broad-based yet.
Equity markets halted their two-day rally on Friday, with the Sensex tumbling 714.53 points amid weak global equities and selling in index majors Infosys, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries. Continuous foreign fund outflows also dented sentiments. The BSE benchmark Sensex tanked 714.53 points or 1.23 per cent to settle at 57,197.15. During the day, it plummeted 776.96 points or 1.34 per cent to 57,134.72. The NSE Nifty also declined 220.65 points or 1.27 per cent to 17,171.95.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday cut the repo and reverse repo rates by 50 basis points each with immediate effect.
The Reserve Bank may announce cut in policy rates up to 50 basis points soon as inflation has been on way downward for past three successive weeks, bankers said.
'Spends are likely to increase from the current levels because recovery is yet to fully be over.'
Among the key concerns of the Street is market share losses in growth segments, led by higher competitive pressures.
Mortgage lender HDFC Ltd on Wednesday announced an increase in its benchmark lending rate by 5 basis points (bps), a move that will make loans dearer for both existing and new borrowers. This is the third hike effected by HDFC in the last one month. "HDFC increases its Retail Prime Lending Rate (RPLR) on housing loans, on which its Adjustable Rate Home Loans (ARHL) are benchmarked, by 5 basis points, with effect from June 1, 2022," the housing finance company said in a statement.
Interest rates on all loans linked to MCLR stand reduced by 5 bps with effect from May 10, 2019: SBI
India's GDP is estimated to grow at 7.4 per cent in the financial year 2022-23 with rising prices triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict posing as the biggest challenge to the global economic recovery, Ficci's Economic Outlook Survey released on Sunday said. According to the survey, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to start a rate hike cycle in the second half of 2022, while a repo rate hike of 50-75 bps is expected by the end of the current fiscal. The RBI is expected to continue supporting the ongoing economic recovery by keeping the repo rate unchanged in its April policy review, the survey said.
According to the research arm of the country's largest lender State Bank of India, with stability in the currency, the RBI Governor is likely to lower the marginal standing facility rate, at which the RBI lends to the banks, once the lenders exhaust their overnight repo borrowing limits.
Given the relevance of bank deposits for Indian savers, whether the regulator would permit linking savings interest rate to a repo-like structure needs to be seen, as a move of this nature could increase volatility in savings also.
Punjab National Bank (PNB), the country's third largest lender, followed its peers to lower its benchmark rate, giving in to the government's wish that rates needed to fall to boost consumer lending.
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For Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) - India's largest and the world's second-largest IT services provider - the attrition rate touched an all-time high of 17.4 per cent in Q4FY22. The management, following the announcement of the Q4 results, has warned that the attrition situation could become even worse before any improvement. According to analysts, the short term, the attrition rate at TCS could even touch 20 per cent.
The new rates will be effective from May 9.
The reason why private banks will play the deposit pricing game strategically is the weakening of banks' deposits base given the competition from MFs and insurance companies due to tax-savings schemes.
Sliding for the fourth straight day, the BSE Sensex shed 152 points in choppy trade on Wednesday amid mixed global cues ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy decision.
Spending through the credit card in March 2022 jumped 48 per cent year-on-year to top Rs 1 trillion -- five months after it had hit the same figure for the first time in October 2021, buoyed by festive season expenditure. The jump has been driven by the pickup in consumption as the pandemic recedes. Expenditure in March, at Rs 1.07 trillion, was up 24.5 per cent over February, the data put out by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed.
Majority of the experts expect a 25 basis point reduction.
The State Bank of India on Saturday hiked its benchmark prime lending rate by 0.50 per cent from 12.25 per cent to 12.75 per cent.
Housing Development Finance Corporation has increased loan rates by 75 basis points for new customers. It has hiked its prime lending rate (PLR) by 50 basis points to 14 per cent.
Prices of food items like cereals, pulses, and edible oils rose or remained steady in May, a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) report said, indicating there could be another higher inflation print. However, it observed that the Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC's) surprise move to increase interest rates bodes well for its credibility. The RBI's monthly State of the Economy report, released on Tuesday, citing high frequency food price data from the Ministry of Consumer Affairs for the period May 1-12, said the increase in the prices of cereals was primarily because of the surge in wheat prices.
Powered by a rally in index heavyweight Reliance Industries, equity benchmark Sensex broke its four-session losing run to close above the 55,000-mark on Thursday despite a weak trend overseas. Investors made a cautious return to IT, pharma and bank stocks after their recent sell-off. However, a depreciating rupee and persistent foreign fund outflows capped the gains, traders said. Overcoming a lacklustre start, the 30-share BSE Sensex surged 427.79 points or 0.78 per cent to close at 55,320.28.
Housing Development Finance Corporation, India's largest mortgage financier, today increased its retail prime lending rate by 50 basis points to 14.25 per cent. This is the first time HDFC is increasing its PLR in two years.
The increase raises the bank's benchmark advance rate to 13.75 per cent from 13.25 per cent. The revised floating reference rate for consumer loans, including home loans, will be 10.75 per cent.
Citing the impact of the second wave of the pandemic over the economy and consumer sentiment, Swiss brokerage Credit Suisse has lowered its nominal GDP growth forecast by 150-300 bps to 13-14 per cent, but expects a stronger recovery in the second half as it sees the lockdowns having limited impact on tax collections. Last month, Neelkanth Mishra, the co-head of equity strategy for Credit Suisse Asia Pacific, and India equity strategist, had told PTI that he expected the real GDP to fall to 8.5-9 per cent in FY22 due to the more severe pandemic attack. The virus case load has crossed the 25-million mark, death toll from the same is nearing 2.9 lakh mark, which is one of the highest in the world as the test positivity rate has been around 15 per cent for long.
As the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic abates, India's automakers are hopeful of a quick recovery in sales volumes, led by better rural sentiment, low interest rates, improved availability of finance and a gradual uptick in business and economic activity. In fact, companies have started to ramp up production already, encouraged by high order books and the growing preference for private transport in both rural and urban areas as a means to avoid infections. In early April, the industry had been bullish as the sales trend for March showed that the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic had been left behind. The total vehicle sales had grown by 77 per cent, albeit on a lower base, and for the past few months, sales had consistently touched 300,000 units per month.
'Marginal rates will definitely affect the consumer's decision in entering a new transaction, but in reality, they don't affect much because banks/financial institutions have come up with step-up EMIs: 50% of home loans which exceed 15 years in India are prepaid, within 7-8 years.' 'This doesn't happen anywhere in the world.'
The Reserve Bank has kept the key policy rates unchanged, while the Cash reserve Ratio (CRR) has been cut by 25 bps to 4.25%.
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RBI is scheduled to unveil its credit policy on June 3.
The primary focus of monetary policy remains the containment of inflation and anchoring of inflation expectations.
The revision in rate is for deposits of up to five years and will be effective from Sept 07, 2012.
The monetary authority said it was worried on three fronts with regard to inflation as well as the economy.
In twin blows to Indian economic revival, higher food prices drove retail inflation to a five-month high of 7.4 per cent while factory output fell for the first time in 18 months. The second consecutive month of rise in consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation will add to the pressure on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to again raise interest rates to tame high prices. Inflation has been above the targeted zone for the ninth month in a row and as per statute, the RBI will now have to explain to the government in writing why it failed to keep prices below 6 per cent.
Analysts believe that investors should look at stocks that hit 52-week lows only if they have a dividend paying track record, are debt-free and have sound fundamentals.
BofA Securities has revised its year-end Nifty target from its earlier projection of 16,000 to 14,500 now - down over 6 per cent from the current levels. Fast tightening monetary conditions, slowing growth/fears of US recession and the likely Nifty EPS (earnings per share) cuts, BofA Securities said, are the key headwinds for the markets in the near-term. However, clarity on macro and monetary policy outlook in the US/India, it said, is the silver lining that could see markets bottom out by August/September 2022.
Market benchmarks gave up intra-day gains to close in the red for the sixth session on the trot on Friday, capping a bruising week which saw a massive dash for safety amid rate hikes by global central banks and fears of slowing growth.
