The Reserve Bank remains laser-focused to bring back retail inflation to 4 per cent over a period of time in a non-disruptive manner, Governor Shaktikanta Das stressed while voting for status quo in interest rates, as per minutes of the October policy meeting released on Friday. The central bank has been mandated by the government to ensure the Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation is at 4 per cent, with a band of 2 per cent on either side. The retail inflation, which was above 6 per cent during May and June, has started moving down and stood at 4.35 per cent in September.
Admitting that credit growth is "very low" given the size and growth rate of the economy, the Reserve Bank on Wednesday said for both the numbers to match, "the very very wide output gap" has to close. The central bank also clarified that low credit growth does not necessarily mean low credit flow to the economy, or choking of credit to the system, as bank credit growth numbers that the central bank publishes regularly represent only the outstanding credit in the system. Output gap means due to poor demand conditions, companies are unable run their plant at full installed capacity or, in a larger sense, an economy is not producing optimally as the demand is missing.
'The selling in India may emerge as soon as the RBI reverses its interest rate stance.'
While lending rates have been jacked up on an average of 5-10 bps by private sector lenders like HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Yes Bank since January, almost all the PSBs have been increasing their bulk deposit rates in the range of 15 bps to 125 bps.
In the last three years, public sector banks have responded to the RBI's policy rates more strongly than private banks.
If this turns into reality, India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth will be the lowest since 2012-13, which could severely hit job creation and income growth in the near term.
CRR remains unchanged at 4%; first repo rate cut since May 2013.
The country's largest private sector lender, ICICI Bank, on Thursday slashed its benchmark lending rate by 50 basis points to 15.75 per cent, a move that would benefit the bank's home, auto, consumer and corporate loan borrowers.
These are the highlights of the seventh bi-monthly monetary policy statement for 2019-20 by the RBI amid COVID-19 pandemic:
Swiss brokerage Credit Suisse expects the economy to continue to show positive surprises and record up to 9 per cent growth in the next fiscal. For the current financial year too, the brokerage anticipates growth to be higher than the consensus forecast of 8.4-9.5 per cent, and printing in at around 10.5 per cent. As a policy, Credit Suisse does not provide absolute growth numbers in its forecast.
If the central banks act harshly now, the markets will crash and then rally. If they are hesitant, the pain will be prolonged, predicts Debashis Basu.
Last month, Emami Group completed divestment of its 100 per cent stake in Emami Cement to Nuvoco Corporation for an enterprise value of Rs 5,500 crore.
Reserve Bank on Tuesday raised key interest rates by 25 basis points, its 13th such hike since March, 2010.
When looking for alternatives, consider several parameters -- your investment horizon and liquidity requirement, post-tax returns, and risk.
'The recent correction in indices has made the markets cheaper to invest for the long term.'
Shaktikanta Das said in Washington, DC, that there was nothing sacrosanct about the 25 bps rate cut and that monetary policy could be well served by calibrating the size of the policy rate to the dynamics of the situation, and the size of the change itself could convey the stance of policy.
The truckers' strike, which entered the second day, can push inflation by 50 basis points on account of shortage of perishable goods and panic buying by traders, said economic think tank National Council for Applied Economic Research (NCAER).
The average wholesale price inflation for FY14 will come at 5.3 per cent, while the consumer price inflation will average under 9 per cent, which would be a five-year low, the brokerage said.
The economy is likely to register a 9.5 per cent growth this fiscal over 7.3 per cent contraction last year, as the ongoing recovery is faster and more credible than earlier foreseen, according to a foreign brokerage report. It will gather more momentum in the second half of the current fiscal, but will slow down to 7.7 per cent next financial year, it added. The government has budgeted for a 10.5 per cent growth this fiscal, but the Reserve Bank has scaled it down to 9.5 per cent.
If the interest rate on bank deposits is linked to any external benchmark, it would jeopardise the banks' fund-raising ability. Interest rates on small savings schemes are likely to be reduced very shortly, to maintain parity. All these steps would indeed affect retired people, and particularly those dependent on interest income, says Arindam Gupta.
Company has agreed to pay Rs 160 cr to settle a lawsuit filed by two former employees over unpaid wages.
Retail inflation inched up to 4.48 per cent in October due to an uptick in food prices, government data showed on Friday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation was at 4.35 per cent in September and 7.61 per cent in October 2020.
India's widening current account deficit (CAD), driven by the massive spike in commodity prices led by crude oil, is set to put pressure on the fragile recovery, warns a brokerage report that has revised upwards its CAD forecast to $45 billion or 1.4 per cent of GDP by March. According to a report by British brokerage Barclays, the worries arise from the fact that the trade deficit has been jumping continuously since July. From an average monthly trade deficit of $12 billion till June, it has jumped to $16.8 billion in July-October, with September showing the highest-ever trade deficit on record at $22.6 billion, the report said.
New borrowers will benefit if banks cut their MCLR. Older borrowers' EMIs will change only when their reset date arrives
From liquidity, monetary policy operations to financial inclusion, know about RBI monetary policy
Nestle India was the top laggard in the Sensex pack, shedding around 2 per cent, followed by SBI, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, Reliance Industries, HUL and Dr Reddy's. NSE Nifty slipped 20.10 points to 15,670.25.
The new rates will become effective from Tuesday.
On the Sensex chart, HDFC, L&T, SBI, Axis Bank, Bajaj FinServ and HDFC Bank were major laggards - dropping up to 2.62 per cent. NSE Nifty closed with a loss of 164.85 points at 15,080.75.
The RBI is expected to cut rates in next policy.
The economy faces more downside risks now as economic disruptions arising from the second wave are likely to stabilise only from July, warned the Swiss brokerage USB Securities. Last month, the brokerage had cut its GDP forecast by 150 bps to 10 per cent for FY22, which though is much higher than the consensus projections by others with some pegging it at as low as 8 per cent. Though adverse impacts on sequential growth is less severe than in the June 2020 quarter when it plunged by 23.9 per cent, as lockdowns are more targeted and localised and households and businesses have adjusted to the new normal now, still, it is increasingly possible that normalcy returns only by July as against our baseline assumption of June.
'The snakes and ladders game will continue till the consolidation process is complete simply because we don't know how bad the scene is, with some of the banks being merged,' says Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
'Stick to FDs of shorter tenures, preferably one-two years.'
SBI was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, spurting over 2 per cent, followed by ICICI Bank, Nestle India, IndusInd Bank, M&M, Bajaj Auto and Maruti. NSE Nifty advanced 135.55 points to 14,819.05.
RBI's status quo on rates disappoints economists.
With inflation remaining at elevated levels, central banks around the world, including the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), will kill excess demand in economy over the next six to eight months, sources in the know said. They also indicated that there could be a rate hike in June, when the inflation forecast for the current financial year would be raised. The RBI, the sources said, might announce more steps such as raising the limit on held-to-maturity (HTM) bonds to support government borrowings but might not come out with any further quantitative easing GSAP (Government Securities Acquisition Programme) measures.
Airtel CEO said, the 5G ecosystem is yet to develop in India and the prices are very high. Telecom companies including Vodafone Idea (VI) and Reliance Jio have also said that the current prices are exorbitant.
The central bank will have to draw a balance between the need to fuel economic growth and contain inflation.
Hike in CRR to suck out Rs 12,500 crore from the banking system.
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