The spreads between state development loans and equivalent-maturity government papers have started widening, and market participants don't expect them to contract anytime soon. The rise in spreads is a direct measure of market displeasure than a rise in yields.
The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee brainstormed the impact of any future shocks on the inflation trajectory and stressed monitoring the cumulative effect of monetary policy actions over the past one year, which is still unfolding, revealed minutes of the rate-setting panel released on Thursday. The minutes of the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), headed by Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das, also indicated it would be premature to declare an end to the monetary tightening cycle, which started in May 2022 to check high inflation following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. The central bank, which effected six back-to-back hikes in the key short-term lending rate (repo) since May 2022 to check high inflation, decided to take a pause early this month.
The rupee rose by 12 paise to close at 79.78 against the US dollar on Monday due to a weak dollar in overseas markets and an improved appetite for riskier assets. Stronger regional currencies also supported the rupee sentiment ahead of the US Fed policy decision on Wednesday. Weak domestic equities and FII outflows, however, capped sharp gains. At the inter-bank forex market, the local unit opened at 79.86 against the greenback and moved in a range of 79.70 to 79.87 in the day trade.
Foreign brokerage Bank of America Merrill Lynch said they expect the headline inflation to rise to 3.3 per cent in May, but added that it is within the 2-6 per cent range which the government has set for the RBI.
The "asset-right" strategy, reiterated by ITC chairman Sanjiv Puri during the company's 112th annual general meeting (AGM) on August 11, received a thumbs up from the analysts. They, however, believe that sustained earnings growth and synergies with the demerged hotel's vertical will help the stock break out from the ongoing consolidation. "The stock is expected to consolidate between Rs 420 and Rs 450 in the near future.
In its scheme of things, tackling inflation now comes ahead of ensuring growth in the world's sixth largest economy, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Fast-moving consumer goods major Dabur India is set to enter the branded spices and seasoning category. It has signed an agreement to acquire 51 per cent in Badshah Masala for a cash consideration of Rs 587.52 crore. The acquisition, the company says, is in line with its strategic intent to expand its food biz to Rs 500 crore in three years.
Probably 35 bps. There could be even an encore in February 2023 to take the policy rate to 6.5% before the financial year ends, predicts Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
'As China's reopening euphoria fizzled out on the back of some disappointing economic data, we saw inflows coming back to India with full force in the past 3-4 months.'
Let's wait for the monetary policy on February 8 -- to see how it complements the fiscal commitments, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Banks enjoyed an expansion in Net Interest Margins (or NIMs) as well as in credit demand through the 2022-23 financial year (FY23). The credit expansion was because economic growth continued to recover from the Covid-19 years, and indeed, second half GDP growth surprised on the upside. The NIM expansion was because banks raised lending rates immediately (in many cases automatically due to floaters) as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) hiked policy rates, and only started raising deposit rates late into the fiscal.
Equity benchmark Sensex declined over 215 points on Wednesday, weighed by losses in index heavyweight Reliance Industries, Bajaj Finserv and Tata Steel, after the Reserve Bank raised the key interest rate by 35 basis points. Subdued Asian markets and continued selling by foreign investors also weighed on sentiment, traders said. Extending its losses for the fourth straight session, the 30-share BSE Sensex ended 215.68 points or 0.34 per cent lower at 62,410.68.
Benchmark indices finished on a weak note on Thursday, extending their previous day's decline amid a negative trend in global equity markets after the US Fed hiked interest rates by 75 basis points. The 30-share BSE Sensex declined 69.68 points or 0.11 per cent to settle at 60,836.41. During the day, it tanked 420.95 points or 0.69 per cent to 60,485.14.
Foreign investors have pulled over Rs 6,400 crore from the Indian equity market in the first four trading sessions of the ongoing month when the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and US Federal Reserve raised interest rates. Given the headwinds in terms of elevated crude prices, inflation, tight monetary policy among others, FPIs' flows in India are expected to remain volatile in the near term, Shrikant Chouhan, Head - Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities, said. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) remained net sellers for seven months to April 2022, withdrawing a massive amount of over Rs 1.65 lakh crore from equities. This was largely on the back of anticipation of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve and due to the deteriorating geopolitical environment following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Credit card issuers saw significant erosion of their card base during the July-September quarter as the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) norms mandated deactivation of cards that have been inactive for a year. The second quarter of the current financial year saw outstanding cards-in-force decline by 2.55 million to 77.7 million. Prior to this, the industry, on an average, was witnessing a net addition of over 1.5 million credit cards a month as players became aggressive on the unsecured lending business after the pandemic.
Less-than-expected rainfall and a poor spatial distribution, experts say, can rekindle fears of a rise in food and fuel inflation that can have an impact on the RBI's monetary policy. The fear of less than optimal rainfall due to El Nino this year, analysts believe, is the biggest short-term risk for the markets, which they said has not been fully priced in yet by them. Monsoon set over Kerala on June 08, a week later than its scheduled date.
The rupee plunged 90 paise to close at an all-time low of 80.86 (provisional) against the US dollar on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and its hawkish stance weighed on investor sentiments. Forex traders said the US Fed's rate hike and escalation of geopolitical risk in Ukraine sapped risk appetite. Moreover, the strength of the American currency in the overseas market, a muted trend in domestic equities, risk-off mood and firm crude oil prices weighed on the rupee.
State Bank of India's earnings growth may turn lacklustre in the near-term, warn analysts. This, they said, could be due to margin compression and likely lower fee income over the next one year. "While the cost of deposits is repricing sharply across the system, there will be relatively lower yield expansion going ahead as most of the back-book has been repriced and there is a high competitive pressure on yields.
This is the Mukesh Ambani-led company's second entry into the dairy segment and it will directly compete with Amul and Mother Dairy.
Monetary Policy Committee keeps key interest rate (repo) unchanged at 4% for 7th consecutive time; Consequently, reverse repo rate too remains unchanged at 3.35%; Bank rate also remains same at 4.25%;
Amid cooling raw material prices, the crude-oil linked companies, which includes paint and tyre firms, have been on a roll over the past one year. Shares of related companies have gained up to 84 per cent, as against a 14 per cent rise in the S&P BSE Sensex. Analysts, however, believe stretched valuations in both these sectors could trigger a de-rating.
Should deposit growth continue to outpace credit growth, banks may end up ceding some hard-earned 25-50 bps improvement in profitability or net interest margin gained in the past two years.
Axis Bank's acquisition of Citibank's consumer finance business for Rs 12,325 crore - the second biggest deal in the Indian banking sector - is seen as a good deal at a good price. The acquisition enables Axis Bank to close the gap with competition in some key segments such as credit cards. At the same time, there are some key issues that are crucial for the deal's success, apart from the fact that it will take some time for Axis to reap the full harvest of its investment.
Warning that the new year will be riskier than the previous two in terms of growth, inflation and the perils of monetary policy normalisation on consumption demand in particular, along with other external risks, a Wall Street brokerage has pencilled in an 8.2 per cent GDP growth next fiscal, with more downside risks to the projection. The biggest risk to the projection is a derailed consumption demand that has been the main growth driver in the past many years, said the Bank of America Securities India house economists who still believe that consumption demand will remain the key driver of growth next fiscal as well.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) continue to cut their shareholding in both Housing Development Finance Corp (HDFC) and HDFC Bank. As per latest data, during the June 2022-23 quarter (Q1FY23), FPIs held 68.1 per cent and 65.96 per cent, respectively, in HDFC and HDFC Bank. Overseas shareholding is down 111/406 basis points (bps) and 260/412 bps on the quarter-on-quarter (QoQ)/year-to-date (YTD) basis in HDFC and HDFC Bank, respectively.
Analysts at foreign brokerage Bank of America Merrill Lynch said the RBI will cut rates by 0.25 per cent in December, and follow it up with a 0.15 per cent in February.
'Banks are being encouraged to lend instead of parking their resources with the RBI and earn risk-free interest income,' points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Investors have scaled back their allocation to equities as pessimism has reached "dire" levels due to cloudy economic outlook, according to the latest Bank of America (BofA) monthly global fund manager survey that covered nearly 300 money managers with combined assets of $800 billion. The survey showed that the expectations for global growth and profits are at all-time lows and cash levels are at highest since the 9/11 attacks. Interest rate hikes by central banks, the unwinding of an easy monetary regime, disruptions in global supply chains, and fears of recession have heightened market volatility since the beginning of the year.
Describing the recent two consecutive spikes in retail inflation beyond the 6 per cent as a 'transitory hump', a Wall Street brokerage on Monday said it expects the RBI to overlook it and unanimously stick to the dovish stance at the forthcoming policy review, even though a further upward revision of its already-revised inflation target is more likely. The Reserve Bank-led monetary policy panel is scheduled to announce the third monetary policy review on August 6, amidst the continuing spike in retail inflation that has breached the 6 per cent upper tolerance level for the past two consecutive months.
Asset-weighted returns of large cap funds lagged their benchmark by 273 basis points, ELSS funds by 318 bps and mid- and small-cap funds by 230 bps.
The country's largest lender State Bank of India on Monday said it has reduced interest rates on home loans by up to 10 basis points (bps) and is offering loans starting from 6.70 per cent rate. The new rates are based on loan amount and CIBIL score of the borrower, and are available till March 31, 2021, according to a statement. The bank said the home loan interest rates will start from 6.70 per cent for loans up to Rs 75 lakh and 6.75 per cent for loans in the range of Rs 75 lakh-Rs 5 crore.
Info Edge (India) reported a good fourth quarter for the 2022-23 financial year (Q4FY23) given depressed conditions in the Key IT segment. The billing growth of 13.7 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in recruitment was well ahead of market expectations. There was solid growth in realisations (up 5.5 per cent) as well as unique customers (up 7.7 per cent).
India's economic growth is now 'extremely fragile' and needs all the support that it can get, as private consumption and capital investment are yet to pick up, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Jayanth R Varma said on Friday. Varma further said out of the four engines of growth for the economy, exports and government spending supported the Indian economy through the pandemic, but other engines need to pick up the baton now. " I like to think in terms of the four engines of growth for the economy: exports, government spending, capital investment and private consumption. "...while exports cannot be the main driver of growth because of the global slowdown, government spending is necessarily limited by fiscal constraints," he told PTI.
Equity indices fell on Thursday, mirroring weak global market trends following the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and hawkish stance. The 30-share BSE Sensex declined 337.06 points or 0.57 per cent to settle at 59,119.72. During the day, it tanked 624 points or 1.04 per cent to 58,832.78. The NSE Nifty went lower by 88.55 points or 0.50 per cent to end at 17,629.80.
Banks looking to raise capital via bond sales to fund decade-high credit growth were compelled to put some of these debt issuances on hold amid a sharp rise in yields since late September, sources told Business Standard. A major private lender, Axis Bank, has not yet followed through with a planned issuance of infrastructure bonds worth around Rs 3,000 crore. This is because volatility in the bond market in late September led to investors seeking higher yields, sources said.
A hotel in 1975, entry into paperboards in 1979, India's dominant cigarette maker, ITC, read the tea - or tobacco - leaves early, leveraged its enterprise strengths and stepped up the diversification agenda to create multiple drivers of growth. Some failed, some faltered, some were transformational, adding steadily to the top line. Now those efforts are making a difference: margins from non-cigarettes - FMCG, hotels, agri, paperboards, paper and packaging - are expanding and profits are kicking in more significantly than ever before.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday raised the benchmark lending rate by 50 basis points to 5.40 per cent to tame inflation.
Country's biggest mortgage lender HDFC on Tuesday announced a festive offer in line with peers like SBI with home loans starting from 6.70 per cent. Last week, SBI as part of festival bonanza offered a concessional home loan rate of 6.70 per cent under its festive offer. This was followed by other lenders like Punjab National Bank and Bank of Baroda.
Benchmark BSE Sensex and Nifty closed lower by nearly 1 per cent on Tuesday amid fresh foreign fund outflows and mixed global trends. The 30-share BSE benchmark fell by 497.73 points or 0.89 per cent to settle at 55,268.49, extending its losses for second straight day. During the day, it tanked 562.79 points or 1 per cent to 55,203.43. The broader NSE Nifty declined by 147.15 points or 0.88 per cent to 16,483.85.
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