The country's largest lender State Bank of India on Monday said it has reduced interest rates on home loans by up to 10 basis points (bps) and is offering loans starting from 6.70 per cent rate. The new rates are based on loan amount and CIBIL score of the borrower, and are available till March 31, 2021, according to a statement. The bank said the home loan interest rates will start from 6.70 per cent for loans up to Rs 75 lakh and 6.75 per cent for loans in the range of Rs 75 lakh-Rs 5 crore.
Bank credit is likely to grow at a four-year high of 11-12 per cent in fiscal 2023, on the back of better economic growth and budgetary support from the government, according to a report. In the fiscal ended March 2022, bank advances have likely grown at 9-10 per cent. "Healthy economic growth and budgetary support from the government should lift bank credit growth by 200-300 basis points to 11-12 per cent this fiscal," Crisil Ratings said in the report. The higher credit growth expectation is also supported by the improved resilience of the banking system, it added.
After raising interest rate by a cumulative 250 basis points in 11 months, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Thursday unexpectedly kept benchmark rate unchanged as global banking woes added uncertainty to the economic outlook. Five out of six members of MPC voted to remain focused on the withdrawal of accommodation to ensure inflation aligns with target while focusing on growth, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Thursday. The Monetary Policy Committee of the central bank decided to take a pause after a rate hike seen in previous six consecutive policies.
Country's biggest mortgage lender HDFC on Tuesday announced a festive offer in line with peers like SBI with home loans starting from 6.70 per cent. Last week, SBI as part of festival bonanza offered a concessional home loan rate of 6.70 per cent under its festive offer. This was followed by other lenders like Punjab National Bank and Bank of Baroda.
'Banks are being encouraged to lend instead of parking their resources with the RBI and earn risk-free interest income,' points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Striking a different note from its peers, US brokerage Bank of America Securities has maintained that the Reserve Bank will leave rates unchanged next week, recognising growth-focused and capex-driven fiscal expansion, which though poses huge price pressure and interest rate risks later. The RBI's rate setting panel Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will begin its deliberations next Monday and announce the policy moves on Wednesday (February 9) in the backdrop of a massive spike in bond yields post the Budget. Almost all major central banks are in the process of hiking rates to tame inflation.
Analysts at foreign brokerage Bank of America Merrill Lynch said the RBI will cut rates by 0.25 per cent in December, and follow it up with a 0.15 per cent in February.
Equity benchmarks extended their decline for the fourth straight session on Wednesday, with the Sensex falling 214.85 points after the Reserve Bank raised the key interest rate by 50 basis points. Continuous foreign fund outflows and surging crude oil prices also weighed on markets. The 30-share BSE benchmark dropped 214.85 points or 0.39 per cent to settle at 54,892.49.
Adani Enterprises, which is launching India Inc's second-largest follow-on public offer worth Rs 20,000 crore next week, on Thursday said it is planning to enter the water segment as this is a key element of its core business of infrastructure. The group is into the entire gamut of infrastructure -- being its ports, airports, roads, expressways power generation & distribution, among others. In ports and airports, the group is the largest player in the private sector. Addressing media from Milan, group chief financial officer Jugeshinder Singh said the company has fixed the price band for the Rs 20,000-crore issue in the range of Rs 3,112-3,276 per share.
'While foreign institutional investor flows are still negative, they will turn positive in the latter part of 2023 as India's resilient growth becomes perceptible.'
'FDs should hold your emergency funds, equivalent to around 6-12 times your monthly expenses.'
This is following revival of demand from the corporate sector and small and medium enterprises (SMEs), even as a nascent economic recovery is taking shape. Credit growth of scheduled commercial banks had accelerated to 9.2 per cent year-on-year (YoY) by the end of December 2021 after breaching the 7 per cent-mark in November, for the first time since April 2020.
But there are challenges, observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Shares of Adani Green Energy (AGEL) continued their upward movement, hitting a new high of Rs 1,955.90, up 2.6 per cent on the BSE in Wednesday's intra-day trade in an otherwise weak market. The S&P BSE Sensex was down 0.77 per cent at 60,285 at 11:01 am. In the past 14 trading sessions, the stock of the renewable energy arm of the diversified Adani Group has zoomed 50 per cent from Rs 1,307.05 on December 30, 2021. In comparison, the S&P BSE Sensex was up 4.3 per cent during the same period.
If the banks throw caution to the winds for building loan books, the hydra-headed bad loans may resurface and spoil the party, warns Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The domestic stock market may face volatility amid the monthly derivatives expiry scheduled this week, while investors would mainly await the outcome of RBI's interest rate decision on Friday, said analysts. Global market movement would also continue to drive sentiment amid a bearish trend recently following rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve and other central banks. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may take cues from its global counterparts to raise interest rate for the fourth time in a row to control inflation.
Sluggish rural demand along with higher inflation is set to mute revenue growth of the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector at 7-9 per cent this fiscal and the next compared to 8.5 per cent in the previous fiscal, a report said. Almost 40 per cent of the Rs 4.7-lakh-crore sector come from the hinterland markets, which have been hit by high inflation, low wages and high job losses since the Covid pandemic. Revenue growth of the FMCG sector will be muted at 7-9 per cent this fiscal and the next compared to 8.5 per cent in the last, while volume growth will be just about 1-2 per cent, down from 2.5 per cent last fiscal, Crisil said in a report on Monday.
With Viswanathan Anand resting, the Indian team managed to hold their own against the favourites before Yu Yangyi subdued B Adhiban with black pieces to secure another victory in the tournament.
Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty gave up early gains to close lower for a fourth straight session on Thursday due to selling in IT and banking shares amid weak global equities. The 30-share BSE benchmark settled 98 points or 0.18 per cent lower at 53,416.15. During the day, it hit a high of 53,861.28 and a low of 53,163.77. The broader NSE Nifty also pared initial gains and ended 28 points or 0.18 per cent down to settle at 15,938.65.
While weather forecasters remain divided on how the monsoons will play out in India over the next few months, analysts believe the news at the current juncture - at best - can trigger a knee-jerk reaction in the markets. They believe it is too early to say whether the sub-par monsoon on account of El Nino can seriously dent the market sentiment in the short-to-medium term. "These are just initial forecasts and we will have another round / status update from the weather forecasters a month down the line.
The Reserve Bank is likely to maintain status quo on interest rates in its forthcoming monetary policy review but may change the stance in view of retail inflation piercing its upper tolerance limit, global uncertainties created by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, and the urgency to protect and boost growth, feel experts. The RBI governor-headed rate setting panel -- Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) -- will be holding its first meeting of the 2022-23 fiscal from April 6 to 8. The outcome will be announced on April 8.
In addition to new launches and restructuring across product segments, festival demand also aided growth.
It further pointed out that the twin balance sheet problem -- at the end of banks and corporate -- more attractive interest rates for borrowers in the bond market and from non-banking financial institutions are other reasons for slow bank credit growth.
Equities went into a tailspin on Wednesday after the Reserve Bank surprised the market with a mid-cycle rate hike in a bid to tame soaring inflation.
A seasonally-strong quarter, with no immediate impact of the second wave and continued acceleration of digital transformation will allow the IT services sector to report a robust Q1 this financial year. However, key metrics to look out for will be attrition rate and margin lever as they will be impacted by salary hikes. Analysts expect growth for the quarter to be broad-based, with sectors like banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI), retail, manufacturing, hi-tech and life sciences driving revenue growth. Analysts across brokerage houses are pegging revenue growth in the range of 1.5 per cent to 4.5 per cent.
What has hit sentiment further is a draft proposal by the government to increase vehicle insurance premiums for financial year 2022-23 (FY23). Third-party motor insurance premiums have not been increased over the last two years and if this is approved, insurance costs for specific segments could rise by a fifth. The worst impacted is the 350cc and above two-wheeler segment, where premiums are up 21 per cent. Royal Enfield (Eicher Motor) is the market leader in the segment. The premiums in the 150-350cc two-wheeler category are also being inc
House economists at the nation's largest lender State Bank of India (SBI) have urged the government to budget for nursing the pandemic-ravaged economy and not to focus too much on fiscal consolidation as there is a need for more stabilisation measures to sustain the fledgling recovery. And one of the best way to begin the new fiscal is to complete the share sale of LIC this fiscal. This can go a long way in repairing the overstretched balance sheet which in turn will bring down fiscal deficit to a much lower 6.3 per cent in FY23 as the public coffers will be left with a cash surplus of at least Rs 3 lakh crore to begin the new fiscal, SBI chief economist Soumya Kanti Ghosh said in a pre-Budget note on Wednesday.
Shifting to floating rate deposits can work as an anaesthetic gel for some customers, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Jhunjhunwala increases stake in DHFL, luggage maker VIP Industries and pharma major Lupin but is cautious on auto holding. At the end of the March quarter, Jhunjhunwala held positions in 29 firms.
The external environment has worsened further. While the Finnish economy entered into a recession, Swedish economic growth also dipped. The Finnish gross domestic product (GDP) dropped 0.6 per cent in October-December, 2022. It was the second quarter of negative growth, which is a technical definition of recession.
Hyderabad-based Andhra Bank is aiming to get a significant proportion of the state government's business, to boost its share of low-cost deposits
Citing faster-than-expected recovery, rising consumer confidence and the resultant spending spike, Swiss brokerage UBS Securities has revised upwards its growth forecast for the current fiscal to 9.5 per cent from 8.9 per cent in September. The brokerage also sees the economy clipping at 7.7 per cent in FY23 but moderating to 6 per cent in FY24, as it expects the benefit of the low-interest rate regime to end by the end of FY23, and it sees the central bank hiking policy rates by 50 bps in the second half of the next fiscal. The Reserve Bank also forecasts 9.5 per cent GDP growth this fiscal while the average projection ranges from 8.5 to 10 per cent.
Retail inflation hit an eight-month high of 6.07 per cent in February, remaining above the RBI's comfort level for the second month in a row, while wholesale price-based inflation soared to 13.11 per cent on account of hardening of crude oil and non-food item prices, government data showed on Monday. The previous high for retail inflation was 6.26 per cent in June 2021. The consumer price index (CPI) based retail inflation, which is taken into account by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) while deciding its monetary policy, rose mainly because of costlier food items, as per the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO).
It is nearly after 13 years that a foreign brokerage has resumed holistic coverage on stocks of public sector banks (PSBs). To that extent, Morgan Stanley's report dated March 3, where the analysts have listed their order of preference for PSB stocks, is an indication that the state-owned banks may once again be attracting some interest, thanks to three back-to-back quarters of good results in FY21 so far. "State-owned banks' balance sheets have improved, and bad loans formation should moderate going forward," the analysts note and this is the key reason for them to relook at their stance on PSBs. While State Bank of India (SBI) remains their preferred pick, stocks of Bank of Baroda (BOB) and Punjab National Bank (PNB) have been upgraded from 'underweight' to 'equal-weight'. The brokerage maintains its underweight recommendation on Bank of India and Canara Bank.
'We would advise investors to invest in a disciplined way in equities for the long term.'
While Infosys has increased the margin guidance for FY21 by 100 bps to 24-24.5 per cent, analysts believe there will pressure on near-term margins as discretionary cuts - promotions and travel, headcount addition, record utilisation, and wage hikes start to reflect on costs.
Neelesh Surana, who manages Mirae Asset Tax Saver and Mirae Asset Emerging Bluechip, remains constructive on Indian equities from a three to five-year time frame.
Among the stocks that have seen the largest cut by MFs, the DVR shares (shares with differential voting rights) of Tata Motors have seen a cut of 243 basis points (bps) in MFs' stake.
A weak margin outlook in the near term and lack of fresh triggers may keep the Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL) stock under pressure. The stock, after tepid September quarter (Q2) results and marginal downward revision in earnings estimates, declined 3.5 per cent in trade on Friday. Though consolidated sales of the company, which owns the Goodknight and Cinthol brands, grew 8.5 per cent year-on-year (YoY), its operating profit declined because of the sharp contraction in margins.
Illustration: Uttam Ghosh/Rediff.com After a brief respite at the year's start, FPIs have dumped shares worth more than $5.7 billion (Rs 42,596 crore), taking the cumulative net outflows since October to $10.5 billion (Rs 78,466 crore), and adding to the volatility on the bourses. The figure would have been a lot worse had it not been for net purchases to the tune of $5.7 billion in the primary market from October to date.
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