In a tightening cycle, a premature pause in monetary policy action would be a costly policy error, Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das opined while voting along with five other members of the MPC for raising the key lending rate by 35 basis points earlier this month, according to the minutes of the meeting released on Wednesday. Prior to the December hike in repo rate, the RBI had raised the key short-term lending rate by 190 bps in four tranche.
The Nifty IT has been one of the worst-performing indices on the bourses this calendar year. Rising concerns of a potential global recession, which investors fear can dampen demand for export-facing domestic information technology (IT) giants, have sent the index down over 30 per cent on a year-to-date basis. By comparison, the Nifty50 Index has shed 2.8 per cent during the period, reveals data by ACE Equity.
The rupee on Friday rebounded from the near-80 levels to close higher by 17 paise at 79.82 against the US currency following a recovery in the domestic stocks and weakness in the greenback in overseas markets. The US dollar retreated from the two-decade high levels against a basket of six currencies which supported the rupee sentiment. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local currency opened at 79.95 and witnessed an intra-day high of 79.82 and a low of 79.96 against the US dollar in the day trade. ,
The sharp correction in the Indian markets from their peak levels has made valuations attractive, say analysts, who advise buying selectively, but only from a long-term perspective. Fifty-six of the Nifty 100 stocks, according to Mahesh Nandurkar, managing director at Jefferies, now trade below the 10-year historical averages, including stocks in financial, select auto, and pharma sectors. "Valuation (one-year forward consensus price-to-earnings, PE) has declined 25 per cent from October 2021 peak, almost matching the 33 per cent price-earnings contraction during the 2011 tightening cycle when repo rates went up by 375 basis points (bps) versus 250 bps this cycle.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) turned net buyers in October after being net sellers in the previous month. In October, FPIs bought shares worth nearly Rs 8,430 crore ($1 billion) against net selling of Rs 13,405 crore ($1.6 billion) in September. Positive flows during three of the previous four months have pushed the domestic markets towards fresh all-time highs. At present, the Sensex and Nifty are less than 2 per cent shy of breaching record highs logged in October 2021. A rally in equity markets in the US and Europe is in hopes that the Federal Reserve may go soft on rate hikes after its November meeting.
The stock of the country's largest listed oral care company -- Colgate-Palmolive (India) Ltd is up 18 per cent over the past month. The gains were led by better than expected June quarter (Q1) performance of the 2023-24 financial year (FY24) and growth revival expectations of the oral care category. The company's volume growth is pegged at 5-8 per cent in Q1FY24. This is the second consecutive quarter of volume growth.
M&M was the biggest loser in the Sensex chart, falling 6.39 per cent, followed by Tech Mahindra, Nestle India, Bajaj Finance, Axis Bank, ITC, JSW Steel, HDFC Bank and RIL. On the other hand, Sun Pharma, Tata Motors, Bharti Airtel, L&T and Infosys were among the winners, rising up to 2.10 per cent.
The RBI's rate-setting panel MPC on Monday began its three-day deliberation amid expectations of another round of hike in benchmark interest rates to contain inflation that continues to remain above the central bank's upper tolerance level. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das will announce the decision of the Monetary Policy Committee after deliberations on Wednesday. Das has already indicated that there may another hike in the repo rate, though he refrained from quantifying it.
Encouraging results for PayTM (One97 Communications) for the 2022-23 financial year (Q4FY23) have led to a surge in the company's stock price, gaining nearly 5 per cent during Monday's trade. PayTM reported Q4FY23 revenues at Rs 2,330 crore, up 51 per cent on year-on-year (YoY) basis (13.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter or QoQ), led by monthly transaction user (MTU) growth of 27 per cent and average revenue per user or ARPU growth of 19 per cent YoY. MTU is defined as users with at least one transaction/month.
RBI may hold rates in Apr; to go for 25 bps cut by June: DBS
The impact of the banking crisis in the US was visible in IT bellwether Tata Consultancy Services' (TCS) weak performance in the March quarter of fiscal 2023 (Q4FY23). The firm witnessed slower revenue growth in Q4FY23 and failed to meet its FY23 exit Ebit margin of 25 per cent as some clients, especially in the North American region, took to pausing projects and rising onsite costs offset utilisation gains. Sequentially, the company's revenue grew by just 0.6 per cent on a constant currency basis, which was one of the slowest paces in over 11 quarters.
HDFC Bank Q1FY24 results analysis: Shares of HDFC Bank, the world's seventh largest financial entity, have advanced 2 per cent in two days, as against 1 per cent rise in the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex, after the lender reported its April-June quarter (Q1) results for financial year 2023-24 (FY24) on July 17. The S&P BSE Bankex index, meanwhile, has gained 1.3 per cent. While the near-term stock performance may remain sideways due to merger-related hiccups, analysts remain bullish on the stock's long-term prospects.
Investors who decide to enter medium to long-duration funds should be cognisant of the risk.
For the banking system a new cycle starts in FY2024. It's fraught with fresh challenges on asset quality and profitability, warns Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
If you don't have a specific goal, but want intermittent liquidity, then ladder your FDs, that is, invest in FDs of varying maturities, such as one, two, three, five or even 10 years. Laddering ensures FDs mature at regular intervals.
Hospitals to recover from sluggish Q3; diagnostics' growth rate at pre-Covid levels.
Based on the current momentum, the funds likely to be raised through the RBI's relaxed window would be $3.5 billion-$4 billion.
'The rising cost of construction, the cost of doing business, high compliance, and inflation/interest rates going up have already reduced returns to single digits.'
Consolidated earnings of Bharat Forge in Q3FY23 missed estimates, largely due to higher-than-expected interest burden, although operational numbers (including standalone numbers) were close to consensus. Still, the management guidance was positive and appeared to be based on logic.
As banks' chase for customers to collect cheap deposits is not fructifying, they are forced to offer inflation-beating real interest rates on fixed deposits now, and state-run banks led by Punjab & Sind Bank tops the chart offering 8-8.50 per cent per annum deposit rate. Banks are forced to offer inflation-beating deposit rates for a tenor ranging from 200 to 800 days as credit growth has been far outpacing deposit mobilization throughout this fiscal, leading to a funding crunch.
The rupee depreciated 44 paise and slipped below the 81-mark against the US dollar for the first time in early trade on Friday, weighed down by the strong american currency and risk-off sentiment among investors. Forex traders said escalation of geopolitical risk in Ukraine and rate hikes by the US Fed and Bank of England in a bid to contain inflation sapped risk appetite. Further, the strength of the American currency in the overseas market, a negative trend in domestic equities, and risk-off moods amid escalation of geopolitical risk in Ukraine weighed on the local unit.
At interactions last week with senior officials from the Reserve Bank of India, select banks gave feedback on two key bond market concerns, namely, recent volatility in the rupee-dollar exchange rate and heavy losses incurred on floating rate government bonds due to a demand-supply mismatch, sources told Business Standard. The discussions were held ahead of the RBI's next monetary policy statement, scheduled on August 5. Indian banks are large holders of government securities because of a regulatory mandate to set aside a certain percentage of deposits in sovereign bonds.
Poor earnings show in the September quarter (Q2FY24), with hints of likely weakness in asset quality going ahead, forced analysts to cut earnings estimates of SBI Cards and Payment Services (SBI Card). On the bourses, shares of the State bank of India arm tumbled 7.4 per cent to Rs 732 apiece on the BSE in the intraday trade as investors factord in near-term concerns. Analysts at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, for instance, slashed SBI Card earnings by 8 per cent and 10 per cent for FY24 and FY25, respectively, as they expect the company to face pesistent magin pressure.
While most borrowers calculate the gain they stand to make from switching to a lower interest rate, they often fail to take into account all the costs.
An acute drug shortage in the US and stable pricing along with product launches are likely to boost revenues of India's pharmaceutical companies during the first quarter of this financial year, analysts said. Most brokerages estimate a top line growth of around 14-15 per cent, with earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) growth of 24-30 per cent for Q1 of FY24. Hospitals are, however, likely to report lower occupancy rates, and diagnostics companies may witness an impact from delayed monsoon.
Despite the narrowing spread of yields between the benchmark 10-year Indian government bond and the 10-year US Treasury bond, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are continuing to invest in the domestic debt market this year -- a trend backed by a stable currency and a less volatile bond market. FPIs have been net buyers in the debt market in 2023 so far, marking the first time since 2019. The yield spread between the 10-year Indian government bond and the 10-year US Treasury note stood at 3.14 per cent on August 8 - the narrowest in over a decade.
The new entrants comprise Asian Paints, Britannia, Titan, Nestl, Bajaj Finance and Bajaj Finserv.
With sales of cooling products turning out dismal this summer due to unseasonal rains, the stocks of related companies are now off their March highs. Shares of fan and air conditioner makers such as Voltas, Symphony, Orient Electric, Johnson Controls-Hitachi Air Conditioning and Crompton Greaves are down 5-23 per cent since March when the summer season saw a firm onset. In comparison, the BSE Sensex index is up 10 per cent.
Housing finance major HDFC and state-run Punjab National Bank on Tuesday announced up to 25 basis points increase in their lending interest rates, making their new and old loans expensive for consumers. The revised rates would be effective from March 1. Mortgage lender HDFC has increased its retail prime lending rate by 25 basis points to a minimum of 9.20 per cent.
State Bank of India was the biggest loser in the Sensex pack, shedding 1.69 per cent, followed by Asian Paints, Kotak Mahindra Bank, HCL Technologies, Reliance Industries, Wipro, IndusInd Bank, Infosys, Power Grid and HDFC twins. In contrast, Nestle, Maruti, Bharti Airtel, Tata Motors, ITC and Hindustan Unilever were among the gainers.
'Favourable product mix, sales recovery, and cost saving initiatives are expected to support margins going ahead while focus on debt reduction (target of debt free by FY24) will aid balance sheet strength'
A month-long national lockdown to arrest the spread of COVID 2.0 could shave off 100-200 bps of GDP, leading to a 300 bps risk to annual growth, a brokerage report has flagged while expressing doubts over the ability of local lockdowns to control the pandemic. The second wave of the coronavirus inflection has caught the government off-guard with the daily cases jumping over 6.5 times in the past 30 days. With close to 3.53 lakh fresh daily infections, the country is the worst hit globally.
Overseas investors have pulled out a net Rs 1,14,855.97 crore from the Indian markets in the current year so far, amid heightened geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns. Foreign portfolio investors have sold domestic equities worth Rs 48,261.65 crore so far this month, taking the year-to-date tally this year to a massive Rs 114,855.97 crore, according to depositories data. The exodus of foreign investors was largely owing to inflationary pressures and deepening global macroeconomic conditions following the Russia-Ukraine war, experts said.
The 55 basis point (bps) spike in the US 10-year bond yield, triggered by a combination of FOMC's hawkish commentary and BOJ's relaxation of the yield control curve (YCC) has made analysts cautious on Asian equities and expect them to trade sideways in the short-to-medium term.
The rise in consumer price index (CPI) inflation could see the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in an extended pause mode as regards interest rates, and in turn, keep the market rally in check, believe analysts. Signs of inflation cooling off in the US, however, is likely to provide some cushion as the expectations of a change in stance by the US Fed as regards interest rates is likely to aid sentiment. Back home, CPI inflation surged for the first time in five months to 4.81 per cent in June 2023, and was higher than the street's expectations of 4.58 per cent.
Private life insurers are expected to deliver decent growth in the first quarter of the 2023-24 financial year (Q1FY24) on the back of stronger group business performance and easing supply-side constraints on individual protection. Life Insurance Corporation (LIC), though, is likely to see a decline. Healthy 12 per cent year-on-year (YoY) retail annual premium equivalent (APE) growth for private players, coupled with 11 per cent year-on-year (YoY) decline in LIC, will pull retail APE growth to a mere 3 per cent YoY in June 2023.
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday decided to keep policy rate unchanged for third time in a row as it maintains heightened vigil on inflation. The rate increase cycle was paused in April after six consecutive rate hikes aggregating to 250 basis points since May 2022.
Domestic-focused agricultural chemical (agrochem) companies could face near-term headwinds, given the worries on the El Nio effect on monsoons, higher inventory, and pressure on margins. Some of these were reflected in the October-December quarter (third quarter, or Q3) results of companies and may impact them in the current quarter (fourth quarter, or Q4) as well. Nuvama Research pointed out that the sector witnessed mixed performance during the quarter as global agrochem and domestic fertiliser companies maintained growth momentum, while adverse agronomical conditions and excess channel inventory weighed on domestic market volume offtake.
'New record for the Nifty50 is only a question of when.'
The bank also announced that it will reduce its external benchmark linked lending rate as well as repo linked lending rate by 40 basis points from July 1.
