Growth in India is expected to slow to 6.3 per cent in FY 2023/24 (April-March), a 0.3 percentage point downward revision from January, the World Bank said Tuesday but noted there is an unexpected resilience in private consumption and investment and robust growth in the services. The World Bank made these points in its latest edition of Global Economic Prospects according to which global growth is projected to decelerate from 3.1 per cent in 2022 to 2.1 per cent in 2023. In Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs) other than China, growth is set to slow to 2.9 per cent this year from 4.1 per cent last year. These forecasts reflect broad-based downgrades.
Slowdown persists in China. India's GDP estimates for 2015-16 are liable to be pared; projections for 2016-17 are lacklustre.
India's information technology (IT) sector will witness subdued hiring in 2023-24 as macro uncertainties impact demand environment, with clients either taking a pause on spend or stopping discretionary spend, say human resource experts. To begin with, unlike earlier years, the three large IT players TCS, HCLTech, and Wipro have not provided any new hiring targets for the financial year. And Wipro has said that its hiring target will depend on the demand environment.
I believe that the Indian IT industry has an opportunity to make further inroads into the US market during the slowdown phase of US economy, says Ashok Soota.
Public banks face slowdown heat.
'As China's reopening euphoria fizzled out on the back of some disappointing economic data, we saw inflows coming back to India with full force in the past 3-4 months.'
The Gross Value Added (GVA) in agriculture and allied activities is projected to clock its best growth in FY23 during the October-to-December quarter, at 3.7 per cent, on the back of a strong kharif harvest, according to the second advance estimates of national income. In the third quarter of FY22, GVA in the sector was 2.3 per cent at constant prices. At current prices, the growth in the third quarter of this financial year is projected at 8.6 per cent, which is almost at the same level in the corresponding quarter of FY22.
Reminiscent of the past two years, the market has made positive strides ahead of the Union Budget 2023-24 (FY24). The benchmark National Stock Exchange Nifty has gained 1.8 per cent in the last month. Typically, markets tend to gain ahead of the Budget as investors build in optimism.
Indian equity markets have a limited upside potential in the near-term as they negotiate the ensuing cyclical slowdown, wrote analysts at Nomura in a recent coauthored report led by Saion Mukherjee, their managing director and head of equity research for India. He, however, believes that the foundations are in place for sustainable growth over the medium-to-long term, and hence suggests a 'buy on dips' strategy to equity investors. As an investment strategy, Nomura prefers domestic-oriented sectors and companies over exporters, and prefers stocks that provide valuation comfort. Industrials and banks are their overweight sectors, while IT services and consumer discretionary are their underweight sectors.
Macroeconomic (macro) concerns, along with a cautious approach towards discretionary information technology (IT) spending, will see the revenue for Indian IT firms decelerate by 5 per cent through 2024-25 (FY25), from the highs of 12-18 per cent in 2022-23, said analysts from S&P Global Ratings. "The reason behind this slow growth is a macro slowdown. "Customers are cutting their discretionary IT spending, especially on projects that take longer to deliver quantifiable outcomes. "We also acknowledge that there are still strong economic headwinds for the next few years," said Spencer Ng, associate director, corporate ratings, S&P Global Ratings, over a call in a media briefing.
A recession is a decline in a country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth for two or more consecutive quarters of a year. A recession is also preceded by several quarters of slowing down.
Amid rising geopolitical risks, a vast majority of Indian CEOs have indicated in a survey that they are reducing or planning to reduce operating costs, even as they are more upbeat than their global peers on their country's economic prospects. However, most of the companies do not plan to cut their headcount or salaries, found the annual Global CEO Survey released by consultancy giant PwC here on the first day of the World Economic Forum meeting on Monday. The survey also found that about four in ten CEOs (40 per cent of global and 41 per cent of India respondents) do not expect their companies to be economically viable in 10 years if they continue on their current path.
'Markets are not expensive; they are fairly priced.'
Buoyancy in the real estate sector along with improved construction activities created jobs and facilitated the return of migrant workers to cities, the Economic Survey for 2022-23 tabled in Parliament on Tuesday said. This assumes significance in view of loss of jobs due to lockdown restrictions imposed in various parts of the country from time to time amid different waves of pandemic since March 2020. The survey points towards sustained recovery in the economic activities during 2022-23 fiscal year.
Aided by the $57.8-billion merger of HDFC Bank and HDFC, India Inc reported its highest ever mergers and acquisitions in calendar 2022 at $171 billion as against deals worth $145 billion announced last year. The acquisition by the Adani group across cement, media and ports dominated the headlines with the conglomerate making its foray into the cement sector by buying Swiss materials firm Holcim's stake in Ambuja Cements for $6.5 billion. The Adani family's additional $4-billion open offer for Ambuja did not get a response because shareholders preferred to stay invested with the new owner.
'Limited spillovers' to Asia's third-largest economy, even as world 'perilously close' to recession.
Mohsin Khan's exceptional bowling performance changed the game in LSG's favour.
Indian economy is poised to do better on the back of reforms undertaken by the government and is expected to clock a 6.5-7 per cent growth in the remaining part of the decade, Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran said on Tuesday. Addressing reporters here after the tabling of the Economic Survey in Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, Nageswaran said that by and large, inflation is likely to be "well behaved" in FY2023-24 barring headwinds. "My optimism is that in the coming decade, rest of the decade, the potential GDP growth, without taking into account export potential, because global economy is still rife with uncertainty, the growth rate would be around 6.5 to 7 per cent, rather than between 6 per cent and 6.5 per cent," he said.
Strong macroeconomic headwinds causing turbulence in the $245-billion Indian IT industry are yet to calm down. Top Indian IT services companies are likely to post a decline or just marginal growth in sequential revenue in Q1FY24 because of a soft discretionary spending environment. Though the first quarter is seasonally strong for IT firms, "June 2023 will be an exception", according to analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities.
The FMCG sector is generally considered to be a safe haven during difficult times as people never stop buying soap and toothpaste. However, weak rural and semi-urban demand has been a factor since the lockdowns of 2020-21 while rising inflation has also impacted margins. While the FMCG majors have survived on the basis of price hikes and good management practices, they have seen growth slowdowns and experienced margins being squeezed as raw materials and transport costs rose. The FMCG sector witnessed positive volume growth in the fourth quarter of the 2022-23 financial year (Q4FY23) after five consecutive quarters of decline, and the rebound in demand was led by urban markets.
Within three trading sessions in May, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have pumped in Rs 9,461 crore into Indian equities. This follows net inflows worth Rs 7,936 crore in March, and Rs 11,631 crore in April. The trend, analysts said, could continue going ahead as the US Federal Reserve may soon halt its interest rate hike cycle, which will strengthen foreign fund inflows into emerging markets, including India.
Wipro sees a silver lining in Q1; others say recovery by 2009-end.
Hikes benchmark lending rate by 35 basis points to 6.25 per cent Cuts growth projection for this fiscal to 6.8 per cent from 7 per cent estimated in September Inflation to come down below 6 per cent in March quarter, to average 6.7 per cent this fiscal
M&M said the ongoing economic slowdown in the automotive industry was mainly on account of inadequate funding and high interest cost. The company's domestic sales in November were down by 41.55 per cent at 10,430 units compared to 17,844 units last year.
These stocks offer the best combination of maximum 'buy' recommendations from brokerages and share price upside over the next 12 months.
Whether this remains under control in the coming months will depend on the future intensity and spread of the Russia-Ukraine war, and the effectiveness of the Indian government's response, points out A K Bhattacharya.
Foreign investment in India's start-ups has plummeted 72 per cent to $4.58 billion so far, from $16.2 billion during the same period last year.
'I'm pitching India for the strengths we offer, including the English language, engineers, doctors, nurses, professionals, innovative talent of startups.'
It reported adding 698,3146 subscribers in September, the lowest since it added 6.1 million in November 2017.
Novelis' results for the January-March quarter of the 2022-23 financial year (Q4FY23) disappointed investors and as a result, the share price of Hindalco (Novelis is a 100 per cent subsidiary of Hindalco) has slid. The non-ferrous metals major is suffering from the impact of a down-cycle in aluminium and copper, as well as the slowdown imposed in Europe by the Russia-Ukraine war. Prospects for the firm look gloomy, at least for the first half (H1) of FY24.
The economy is likely to log in a tepid 6 per cent growth next fiscal, in line with the consensus estimates, rating agency Crisil said on Thursday. The agency also sees the economy averaging a growth rate of 6.8 per cent over the next five fiscals. Crisil further said it expects the corporate revenue to log in double-digit rise again next fiscal.
Mutual fund houses have been on an equity buying spree in the past three months as they have invested a net amount of Rs 55,000 crore in them between January and March 2023. The number is more than double the amount deployed in the preceding three months (October to December), signalling improved valuations and favourable economic indicators. The valuations, which had peaked in October 2021, returned to its long-term average in March 2023.
The RBI raked in a massive net income gain from foreign exchange currency sales as a buffer for the rupee during tumultuous geopolitical upheavals last year owing to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Foreign currency loans raised by Indian companies nosedived to $210 million in the September quarter (Q2), 93.3 per cent less than the year-ago period when five firms raised $3.1 billion. The Q2 amount is the lowest since December 2003 quarter when India Inc raised $191 million. Companies cited volatility in the currency markets, sharp rise in interest rates in the United States, and fund availability in India as the main reasons behind the sharp fall.
'The Indian economy is full of potential.'
Have committed themselves to investing Rs 1,85,000 crore since last year.
Investors' wealth climbed Rs 3.20 lakh crore as markets staged a smart comeback on Wednesday after falling in the last eight trading sessions. The BSE Sensex rallied 448.96 points or 0.76 per cent to settle at 59,411.08. During the day, it jumped 513.33 points or 0.87 per cent to 59,475.45.
Contracting for the third month in a row, India's exports declined by 8.8 per cent to $33.88 billion in February due to slowdown in global demand, even as the trade deficit touched about a year low of $17.43 billion during the month, according to official data released on Wednesday. Imports also declined by 8.21 per cent to $51.31 billion as against $55.9 billion recorded in the corresponding month last year. Cumulatively, however during April-February this fiscal, the country's overall merchandise exports rose by 7.5 per cent to $405.94 billion.
India's consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation could ease in the coming months thanks to the arrival of kharif crops, lower international commodity prices, and a pass through of lower input costs to consumers, the finance ministry said in its Monthly Economic Review (MER) for October, which was released on Thursday. The MER, however, warned that the global macroeconomic situation remained precarious and a recession in many advanced economies would impact India's exports. "Easing international commodity prices and new Kharif arrival are set to dampen inflationary pressures in the coming months.
Dealers across brands are slashing prices by Rs 20,000 to over Rs 1 lakh, depending on the car model.
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