Mutual funds (MFs) are betting on a turnaround in the healthcare sector to boost returns but are divided on the prospects of the information technology (IT) sector amid uncertain growth outlook. At the end of June, all of the top 20 fund houses were overweight on the healthcare sector vis--vis the sector's presence in the BSE 200 index, shows a report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFS). In the case of the IT sector, only six of the 20 fund houses had overweight positions.
Mutual funds (MFs) have stepped up equity purchases after staying on the fence for over two months. Their net equity investments reached a four-month high of Rs 7,700 crore in July, rising for the fourth consecutive month after withdrawing a net of Rs 5,100 crore in April 2023. This trend continued in August, with net investments of Rs 3,400 crore in the first three trading sessions, according to data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India.
India's exports entered negative territory after a gap of about two years, declining sharply by 16.65 per cent to $29.78 billion in October, mainly due to global demand slowdown, even as trade deficit widened to $26.91 billion, according to data released by the commerce ministry on Tuesday. Key export sectors, including gems and jewellery, engineering, petroleum products, ready-made garments of all textiles, chemicals, pharma, marine products, and leather, recorded negative growth during October. Imports during the month under review rose by about 6 per cent to $56.69 billion on account of increase in the inbound shipments of crude oil and certain raw materials such as cotton, fertiliser and machinery.
'This segment has performed very well for us and this is reflected in our bounce rate which is about three to four per cent.'
The Indian rupee, which has depreciated 1.1 per cent so far in August, is expected to decline further on the back of a strengthening US dollar and a weakening Chinese yuan, according to a Business Standard poll of analysts. The Indian rupee hit an all-time low recently, closing at 83.15 per dollar. Five of the 10 respondents said the Indian currency might touch 83.5 per dollar in August itself, while others said the worst could be over.
The rally in silver may continue if the global economic recovery remains on course.
Petrol and diesel prices are unlikely to be increased despite firming raw material costs because of upcoming general elections next year, Moody's Investors Service said. Three state-owned fuel retailers -- Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) -- which control roughly 90 per cent of the market, have kept petrol and diesel prices on freeze for a record 18 months in a row. This is despite the raw material (crude oil) cost surging last year, leading to heavy losses in first half of 2022-23 fiscal year before easing oil prices propelled them to profitability.
India's economic growth will be above 6 per cent in the current fiscal as the country has managed to strengthen its macroeconomic stability and performance even in a period of large global shocks, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Member Ashima Goyal said on Monday. Goyal further said that a global slowdown reducing India's export growth, geopolitics fueling oil and food prices, and erratic weather are some of the continuing risks that the country faces. "India has managed to strengthen its macroeconomic stability and performance even in a period of large global shocks.
Wipro sees a silver lining in Q1; others say recovery by 2009-end.
Mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in India are expected to stay buoyant, seen over the last three-four years, despite a slowdown in the first seven months of the calendar year. "M&A is a lumpy business activity, and we may suddenly see large deals taking place during the next two quarters of the calendar year. "This would help maintain the streak of strong M&A activity.
The Street shrugged off a muted first quarter of financial year 2023-24 (Q1FY24) and a cautious near-term outlook by India's largest information technology (IT) services company, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS). The stock was the top Nifty50 and Sensex gainer on Thursday, rising 2.5 per cent, as investors took comfort from a robust order book and an encouraging pipeline. Like its larger peer, HCL Technologies' (HCL Tech), too fell short of the Street's expectations on the revenue and margin fronts given cuts in discretionary expenditure.
M&M said the ongoing economic slowdown in the automotive industry was mainly on account of inadequate funding and high interest cost. The company's domestic sales in November were down by 41.55 per cent at 10,430 units compared to 17,844 units last year.
Indian imports of Russian oil plunged by a record in August month-on-month (M-o-M) as discounts on the fuel shrank in tandem with rising Brent oil prices. Higher crude prices will drive inflation or hurt earnings at oil companies and India's fiscal position if such spikes are not passed on to consumers. Indian purchases of Russian crude declined by around 24 per cent in August from July to the lowest level since January, with refiners expecting volumes to drop further amid rising rates of Russian benchmark Urals grade, substantial stocks at refiners, and planned maintenance at Indian refineries, according to ship tracking data and industry officials.
The impact of the banking crisis in the US was visible in IT bellwether Tata Consultancy Services' (TCS) weak performance in the March quarter of fiscal 2023 (Q4FY23). The firm witnessed slower revenue growth in Q4FY23 and failed to meet its FY23 exit Ebit margin of 25 per cent as some clients, especially in the North American region, took to pausing projects and rising onsite costs offset utilisation gains. Sequentially, the company's revenue grew by just 0.6 per cent on a constant currency basis, which was one of the slowest paces in over 11 quarters.
The 55 basis point (bps) spike in the US 10-year bond yield, triggered by a combination of FOMC's hawkish commentary and BOJ's relaxation of the yield control curve (YCC) has made analysts cautious on Asian equities and expect them to trade sideways in the short-to-medium term.
After underperforming its peers in the consumer space in 2022-23, and experiencing a mixed bag in the 2023-24 (FY24) April-June quarter (first quarter, or Q1), brokerages are positive about the medium-term outlook for liquor stocks. Higher raw material costs, concerns regarding increased duties, regulatory changes, and competitive pressures weighed on performance returns in the past quarters. Analysts believe that the sector could experience a reversal of fortunes due to better demand and margin improvements.
The re-opening of the Chinese economy, as it moves away from its zero-Covid policy, could help stabilise commodity prices, according to some of the country's top metal companies. They view this as a positive for demand, at a time when markets such as the US and Europe have been largely weighed down by slowdown concern now. "Most of us in the metals business are hoping the Chinese economy picks up because half of any metal demand, including demand for aluminium, comes from China.
Mutual funds' average cash holdings in equity schemes topped 6 per cent in February as fund managers went slow on deployment of new inflows on expectations of better buying opportunities amid uncertainties in the market.
Have committed themselves to investing Rs 1,85,000 crore since last year.
'Given that the market is now demanding disciplined growth, well-run companies should be able to demonstrate profitability with the cash on hand.'
A decline in demand from six of India's top 10 import partners -- China, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, South Korea, Australia, and Singapore -- resulted in India's imports hitting a 17-month low of $50.6 billion in January, showed the data compiled by the department of commerce. Shipments from South Korea, Australia, and Singapore declined by 14.1 per cent, 26.7 per cent, and 9.8 per cent, respectively. Among the 10, growth in inbound shipment was seen only in the case of the United Arab Emirates (12.1 per cent), the US (27.4 per cent), Russia (297.4 per cent), and Indonesia (22.9 per cent).
The continuing global uncertainity has complicated the fight against inflation, opined Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Michael Debabrata Patra during the Monetary Policy Committee meeting held on February 8. According to the minutes of the MPC meeting released on Wednesday, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das also mentioned that there is considerable uncertainty due to a host of global factors such as rising non-oil commodity prices. The RBI on February 8 hiked the key short-term lending rate by 25 basis points to 6.5 per cent, citing sticky core inflation.
'The Indian economy is full of potential.'
Cement manufacturers' show during the June 2023-ended quarter (Q1FY24) has indicated an intensified slugfest for market share. For instance, Dalmia Bharat (Cement) said it has lost market share in eastern India owing to lack of price discipline. Industry analysts also said that the seasonal weakness in cement prices for Q1 is showing up earlier than usual.
'I want us not to underestimate Indian voters. They can tell good work from bad.'
After bumbling for years since 2014, the Modi government seems to believe that massive government expenditure will lead us to prosperity supported by 'seat-of-the-pants' decision-making, observes Debashis Basu.
Private life insurers are expected to deliver decent growth in the first quarter of the 2023-24 financial year (Q1FY24) on the back of stronger group business performance and easing supply-side constraints on individual protection. Life Insurance Corporation (LIC), though, is likely to see a decline. Healthy 12 per cent year-on-year (YoY) retail annual premium equivalent (APE) growth for private players, coupled with 11 per cent year-on-year (YoY) decline in LIC, will pull retail APE growth to a mere 3 per cent YoY in June 2023.
Notwithstanding expectations of a pick-up in construction activity during a seasonally strong January-March quarter (fourth quarter) of 2022-23 (FY23), analysts are cautiously optimistic about the building material sector - encompassing paints, pipes, wood panels, tiles, metals, and cement - as volatile input costs, coupled with fears of a global slowdown, are making demand projections uncertain. Against this backdrop, analysts suggest investors stay selective and pick stocks of companies with stronger brand recall, expanding distribution network, diversified product profile, healthier balance sheet, and sustainable cash flow. "The government's various proposals under Budget 2023-24 (FY24) may lead to the building material segment growing between 8 per cent and 12 per cent for the next five years.
Walmart-owned digital payments firm PhonePe has decided to halt its proposed acquisition of Goldman Sachs- and Xiaomi-backed ZestMoney, a Bengaluru-based buy now, pay later (BNPL) platform. The deal, which was poised to fetch anywhere between $150-200 million and $300 million, has hit a snag over lapses in due diligence, disagreements over valuation, sustainability of the business, and shareholding structure of ZestMoney, according to people familiar with the matter. The collapse of the deal is also being attributed to a slowdown in the financial technology (fintech) sector in the midst of a funding winter, difficult regulatory environment, and macroeconomic uncertainty, informed other sources.
It reported adding 698,3146 subscribers in September, the lowest since it added 6.1 million in November 2017.
Riding on strong June-quarter numbers and positive brokerage outlook, the stock of retail major Trent hit a fresh all-time high on Monday (August 14). The stock has gained 14 per cent in five trading sessions. Continuing the trend of strong revenue growth over the last few quarters, the company posted 53.5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth in top line to Rs 2,536 crore in the June quarter (first quarter of financial year 2023-24 or Q1FY24).
Key drivers of profitability for Zomato has not witnessed remarkable growth, the management believes the venture will turn profitable in the long term.
A major reason for the high growth in advertising spends as these companies are keen on higher volume
Among the Sensex firms, Wipro, Axis Bank, Titan, UltraTech Cement and HDFC Bank, HDFC, HCL Tech and Reliance were the gainers.
'The reason being we cannot let premiums go beyond a certain point.'
The number of ultra-high net worth individuals (UHNWIs) in India is expected to rise 58.4 per cent in the next five years from 12,069 in 2022 to 19,119 in 2027, a report by property consultancy Knight Frank said on Wednesday. In its "The Wealth Report 2023", Knight Frank said that the number of Indian UHNWIs, with a net worth of $30 million or above, fell 7.5 per cent in 2022 due to economic slowdown, rate hikes, appreciation of the US dollar and geopolitical uncertainties. Globally, the number of UHNWIs fell 3.8 per cent in 2022 compared to 2021.
The average ticket size observed in jewellery retail dipped by 66 per cent to Rs 3,625 for Dhanteras and Diwali, while the same for apparel stores dipped 28 per cent to Rs 1,746.
The number of ultra rich falls to 2.56 lakh in 2018 from 2.63 lakh. As much as Rs 262 lakh crore of the wealth possessed by the high networth individuals are in the form of financial assets, while the rest are parked in physical assets.
Brokerages expect India Inc to report an upturn in earnings for the March quarter of 2022-23, after a relatively muted showing in the previous two quarters. This growth is expected to be led by banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI) companies, FMCG firms, and automobile makers. The combined net profit of the Nifty50 companies (excluding Adani Enterprises) is expected to have grown 15.6 per cent to Rs 1.77 trillion in Q4FY23, from Rs 1.53 trillion a year ago.
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