Firms seem to have adopted a wait-and-see approach on their plans until public policies become clearer upon the formation of a government.
The services sector suffering due to slowing orders, says HSBC.
India's inflation trajectory in the coming months will be influenced more by the geo-political situation due to the war in Europe and its impact on supply chains and commodity prices. However, the country is better placed than most to "weather the storm" and achieve growth of close to 8 per cent in the current fiscal year, the finance ministry said in its latest monthly economic report on Thursday. "Through the channel of imports, elevated global crude and edible oil prices now have a significant impact on India's inflation outlook. "Government measures to keep the prices of these commodities in check, along with the recent hike in policy rates by the RBI, are expected to temper inflationary pressures in the economy," the monthly economic report for April, drafted by the finance ministry's economic division, said.
The headline seasonally adjusted Nikkei India Composite PMI Output Index, that maps both the manufacturing and services sectors, rose from 53.3 in June to 54.1 in July.
Fitch Ratings has revised India's GDP growth estimate to 12.8 per cent for the fiscal year beginning April 1 from its previous estimate of 11 per cent, saying its recovery from the depths of the lockdown-induced recession has been swifter than expected. In its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO), Fitch said revision is on the back of "a stronger carryover effect, a looser fiscal stance and better virus containment." "India's second half of 2020 rebound also took GDP back above its pre-pandemic level and we have revised up our 2021-2022 forecast to 12.8 per cent from 11.0 per cent," it said. "Nevertheless, we expect the level of Indian GDP to remain well below our pre-pandemic forecast trajectory."
Stock markets are expected to remain under pressure this week due to the overhang of US presidential polls and uncertainty over global growth due to resurging cases of coronavirus, according to analysts.
This is the 22nd consecutive month that the manufacturing PMI has remained above the 50-point mark.
The seasonally adjusted India Services Business Activity Index rose sharply from 34.2 in July to 41.8 in August, the highest since March, before the escalation of the pandemic.
New business received by Indian manufacturers expanded at the fastest pace since February.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has spooked financial markets globally, will set the tone for Dalal Street this week amid concerns over energy prices and foreign fund outflows, analysts said. Participants will also track key macroeconomic signals like GDP estimates and PMI data for manufacturing and services sectors to be announced this week, they added. "With earnings season behind us and given the overall sentiments, markets are expected to move in sync with global peers in the coming week. "A close eye will be kept on the developments concerning the Russia - Ukraine crisis and considering the inflation overhang, market participants will also observe movements in energy prices," said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities Ltd.
This is the ninth consecutive month that the manufacturing PMI remained above the 50-point-mark.
Bolstered by improved domestic demand, India's services sector expanded for the fourth consecutive month in January as business activities quickened and rising business optimism is set to sustain the growth momentum, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The seasonally-adjusted India Services Business Activity Index rose from 52.3 in December to 52.8 in January, pointing to a quicker expansion in output. The index was above the critical 50 mark that separates growth from contraction for the fourth month in a row during January.
It will bear fruit in the next five years, which is why FDI is so strong. The foreigners clearly know what Indians don't, asserts T C A Srinivasa-Raghavan.
However, predictions that economic conditions will normalise after the elections underpinned optimism regarding the outlook and supported a stronger upturn in employment.
Upbeat high-frequency indicators and consumer confidence show that Indian economy continues to forge ahead, emerging out of shackles of pandemic, said an article on the state of economy published in RBI Bulletin on Wednesday. The recovery is spearheaded by an uptick in private investment through November-December alongside a turnaround in bank credit offtake and high capex from the government sector (Centre and states). In conjunction, the employment situation has brightened, said the article written by RBI officials.
With factory production, activities across the private sector saw the biggest drop in over three years
Wipro's ServiceNXT Operations framework will be utilised to manage PMI's technology and applications infrastructure.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) were net buyers to the tune of Rs 16,459 crore in Indian markets in August, with majority of investment coming in the debt segment. In equities, they invested just Rs 2,082.94 crore while debt segment saw inflow of Rs 14,376.2 crore between August 2-31, depositories data showed. The quantum of investment in the debt segment is highest in this calender year so far.
On the price front, Indian manufacturing companies continued to face higher input costs during August.
India is facing no risk of recession or stagflation as macroeconomic fundamentals of the economy are strong, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Monday. Replying to a debate on price rise in the Lok Sabha, she said the GST collection and Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) are indicating that the Indian economy is getting more robust. The GST collection rose 28 per cent to touch the second-highest level of Rs 1.49 lakh crore in July. GST, introduced in July 2017, touched a record high of Rs 1.68 lakh crore in April 2022.
According to Japanese financial services major Nomura, India's manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion zone but suggested some consolidation after the rapid ramp up of activity in December.
Firms said subdued demand conditions, unfair pricing among competitors and economic woes affected the sector.
The IHS Markit India Services Business Activity Index stood at 5.4 in April, an extreme decline from 49.3 in March, and indicative of the most severe contraction in services output since records began in December 2005. As per the IHS Markit India Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), a print above 50 means expansion, while a score below that denotes contraction.
'One cannot take it that the economy has recovered, and the GST payment has increased because of that, or that production is back to January 2020 level.'
The Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), fell from 52.1 in February to a five-month low of 51.0 in March, indicating the slowest improvement in operating conditions recorded by the survey since last October.
Indicators show green shoots in the economy with electricity and fuel consumption, inter and intra-state movement of goods, PMI data and retail financial transactions witnessing a pick-up, she said.
The IHS Markit India Services Business Activity Index improved from 52.7 in November to 53.3 in December, highlighting the second-strongest rate of increase in output in over a year, after July. However, the overall level of positive sentiment remained below its long-run average.
The Nikkei India Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which tracks services sector firms on a monthly basis, stood at 48.7 in January, as against 46.8 in December 2016.
Firms hired additional hands to keep up with the production demand
The headline seasonally adjusted IHS Markit India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 27.4 in April, from 51.8 in March, reflecting the sharpest deterioration in business conditions across the sector since data collection began over 15 years ago. The index slipped into contraction mode, after remaining in the growth territory for 32 consecutive months. In PMI parlance, a print above 50 means expansion, while a score below that denotes contraction.
HSBC's services purchasing managers index, that maps the activity of around 400 firms, despite a 40 basis points dip, has kept above the 50 mark that signifies growth since November.
Reflecting a loss of "growth momentum", manufacturing activities in the country slowed down to a six-month low in March amid softer increases in new orders, production and employment, according to a survey.
Axis Bank was the top loser in the Sensex pack, shedding over 4 per cent, followed by Tata Steel, SBI, NTPC, Bharti Airtel, ITC and ICICI Bank.
Indian economy is expected to grow 10.5 per cent or more in the current fiscal, Niti Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar said on Thursday. Speaking at a virtual conference organised by the Public Affairs Forum of India (PAFI), he also said that modernisation of the retail sector is very much on the cards. "India Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for both manufacturing and services has shown a very smart uptick last month. "This (Indian economy) will strengthen even further," he said. "I expect Indian economy to grow 10.5 per cent or higher in FY 22," he noted.
Currency scarcity weighed on manufacturing performance where growth of new work flows slowed
India's manufacturing PMI rose to 54.5 in December, 2014, while in the corresponding period a year ago it stood at 50.7, just above the crucial 50 mark which separates growth from contraction.
Share markets will have only three trading days this week with Monday and Wednesday being holidays due to general elections in Mumbai and Maharashtra Day, respectively.
TCS was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising around 2 per cent, followed by ONGC, SBI, L&T, Infosys, HCL Tech, ICICI Bank and Axis Bank. The broader NSE Nifty surged hit a record high of 14,109.40.
The NCEAR has indicated some improvement in the fourth quarter of the current financial year.
The Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 47.9 in July, down from 50.9 in June, its lowest mark since February 2009, and highlighted the first deterioration in business conditions in 2017 so far.
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