'Indian equity valuations, although not very expensive, are not cheap either.'
Strange souls see a research report on an Indian conglomerate as part of a vast conspiracy to Keep India Down. There is only one possible response to this: Grow up. Nobody in the West cares enough about India or Adani to put all the effort into creating a giant conspiracy that links together BBC documentaries and short-sellers, points out Mihir S Sharma.
Despite the wobble in the markets over the past few weeks, Indian equities remain expensive as measured by several yardsticks. India's market capitalisation-to-GDP ratio, for instance, has touched a multi-year high. The ratio is currently at 116 per cent, based on the FY22E gross domestic product (GDP) number, above its long-term average of 79 per cent.
This is first time in 25 years that a benchmark equity index in India is trading at a P/E multiple of 40x or higher.
The dream-run in railway stocks may soon run out of steam, caution analysts. The rally, which has lasted nearly a year, may meet time-wise correction post the Union Budget announcements as investors begin scalping profits. "There is going to be a build-up in expectations for the sector from the Union Budget, which is still two-odd months away.
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The country's top FMCG stocks, such as Hindustan Unilever, ITC, Nestl, Britannia, Godrej Consumer Products, and Dabur, among others, are currently trading at around 41x their trailing 12-month earnings, down from their peak P/E multiple of around 48x at the end of December 2018.
The bull run in the Indian equity markets is intact, said analysts at Morgan Stanley in a recent note. They expect the S&P BSE Sensex to hit 80,000 levels by December 2023 in their bull-case scenario, to which they have assigned a 30 per cent probability. From the current level, this translates into an upside of nearly 29 per cent.
Indian equity markets should be able to withstand inflation up to 8 per cent, said analysts at Credit Suisse Wealth Management in a recent note. Should the rate of inflation move higher than this, the valuation of Indian equities could deteriorate further, they cautioned. The fall from the peak levels has seen Nifty's 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.6 dip toward its 10-year and 5-year (pre-COVID) average of 16.9, which suggests that valuation froth of Indian equities has settled, said the Credit Suisse analysts.
'Investors need to have a fairly diversified basket of funds within equities.' 'We want them to allocate to largecap funds, midcap funds and flexicap schemes.'
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After several years of downgrades to the country's medium-term growth outlook, the estimates are likely to be upgraded now, Credit Suisse said in a report. The country's economy is showing signs of bottoming out, it said. According to the report, the consensus forecasts of GDP growth for FY2022 over FY2020 stopped falling after October 2020 (currently at (-) 1 per cent). Analysts at Credit Suisse expect these estimates to be revised upwards.
The Sensex is on course to ending calendar year (CY) 2019 at a price-earnings (P/E) multiple of 29x, the highest in 25 years. Current valuations are, however, lower than those seen in the early 1990s. The Sensex has risen close to 14 per cent in the last 12 months, while the index underlying EPS dropped 6.7 per cent during the period.
'If the third wave of Covid infections is as bad as the second one, the market may get very polarised with a preference for blue-chips with low volatility.'
It's raining IPOs, with eight issues hitting the market in a span of six days. However, the pace of new filings points to a deluge during the latter part of the year. So far this year, 58 companies have filed their draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) with the market regulator for initial public offerings (IPOs), exceeding the combined tally of 50 in the last two years. Industry participants said the filing count could cross 100 this year, setting a new benchmark in terms of amount mobilised in a calendar year.
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Number of stocks trading above 50 times and 100 times earnings are at record highs. When this happened in 2015 and 2016, the Sensex fell 22.6 per cent in a little over a year's time after peaking in January 2015, while it fell by 11.3 per cent in two months from its peak in September 2016.
In a bull-case scenario it sees the Sensex at 61,000 levels, while it's bear case scenario pegs the Sensex at 41,000 levels by December 2021.
'Our preference remains for the less-expensive industrial stocks, which are showing good earnings momentum.'
The relentless rally in small- and mid-cap stocks continues as large-caps show signs of fatigue. In July, the Nifty Smallcap 100 rose 8.1 per cent, extending its year-to-date (YTD) gains to 48.5 per cent, while the Nifty Midcap 100 added 3.1 per cent, taking its YTD rise to 33.5 per cent. On the other hand, the Nifty50 remained unchanged for the month, with YTD gains of 12.7 per cent.
'Today, there is no easy money to be made after the run-up in equities.'
Larsen & Toubro (L&T), India's largest construction and engineering player, has lost as many as 14 large orders in the country because companies that don't possess adequate technical expertise and experience, of late, have won the projects by bidding lower, claimed A M Naik, non-executive chairman of L&T. But the company has made up for the losses by winning projects overseas, where it has acquired a sizeable market share amid tough competition from large global players, he said.
'India has many attractive features for the long-term investor; it combines: A low per capita income, a young population, and a heavier presence of high margin, asset-light firms in the technology sector.'
'Valuations were depressed at 8,000 (Nifty 50 index) levels. It was a free ride to 12,000 levels.' 'What went down had to come up. Now fundamentals have to support further gains.'
The FPI holding in India's top 100 companies, which are part of the Nifty 100 index, declined to 24.23 per cent on average at the end of March this year, from a high of 27.5 per cent at the end of March 2021. This is the lowest FPI holdings in India's top listed companies in at least three years. A general sell-off by FPIs has weighed on stock prices and the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex is down 8.5 per cent, from its 52-week high made in October 2021. Most analysts expect FPI flows to remain weak in FY23 as well, given rising bond yields in the US and an expected earnings slowdown in India due to high inflation and commodity prices.
'The selling in India may emerge as soon as the RBI reverses its interest rate stance.'
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Investments in Indian capital through participatory notes (P-notes) rose to Rs 1.02 lakh crore till October-end, making it the highest level in 43 months.
'The recent correction in indices has made the markets cheaper to invest for the long term.'
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Because it costs a shit-ton of money. Full disclosure: I won't accept a wedding ring that costs Rs 1L or less. But Rs 1L and more seems like a LOT of money. Enough for me to think about better ways to spend it. Stocks? Mutual Funds? SIPs? *GASP* NFTs and Crypto?
'Overtightening of monetary policy by central banks and the spread of new Covid variants, which may force governments to restart lockdowns or restrict mobility.'
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Despite the large economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, the markets have recovered sharply even though the performance among individual stocks has been quite polarised.
While analysts remains overweight on financials, property, discretionary, industrials and materials, they maintain a neutral stance on pharma, telecom and energy; and underweight on staples, utilities, and IT services.
In 2021, there is the risk of interest rates spiking. Investors should tackle duration risk with a longer investment horizon, suggests Sanjay Kumar Singh.
The infra sector broadly includes real estate, steel and cement companies.
The retail frenzy over initial public offers (IPOs) seen over the past few months is not without reason. Over the past two years, 61 companies have tapped the primary market and raised funds via IPOs. Of these, 24 companies (nearly 39 per cent companies) have more than doubled at the bourses with Happiest Minds, IndiaMart Intermesh, Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation (IRCTC), Affle India and Route Mobile surging 468 per cent to 722 per cent since their listing date till now. Retail participation in the equity market, according to analysts, has just reached an inflection point due to the low interest rate regime amid lack of investment-worthy avenues that can generate a good return for investors.
It is not clear as to whether we are in a bubble in technology stocks. What is clear, however, is that there is no reason why this potential bubble will pop anytime soon, notes Akash Prakash.
Titan, NCC, Delta Corp, Karur Vysya Bank, Aptech, and Jubilant Life Sciences are among stocks in Jhunjhunwala's portfolio that have taken a severe hit, falling more than 50 per cent during the period.
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