Moody's Investors Service on Tuesday slashed India's growth forecast for the current financial year to 9.3 per cent saying that the second wave of coronavirus infections hampers economic recovery and increases risk of longer-term scarring. Moody's, which has a 'Baa3' rating on India with a negative outlook, said obstacles to economic growth, high debt and weak financial system contrain sovereign credit profile. The US-based rating agency had in February forecast a 13.7 per cent economic growth for the current fiscal (April 2021-March 2022).
The second wave of COVID-19 may have a more lasting damage on the Indian economy and exports will once again be the foundation for recovery, Moody's Analytics said on Monday. In its report titled 'APAC Economic Outlook: The Delta Roadblock', Moody's Analytics said social distancing is weighing on the current quarter, but economic recovery will resume by the year-end. The Delta variant of COVID-19 is among factors now adversely affecting economies of the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, but the economic hit from the current round of movement restrictions in the region will not be as severe as the recessions in the second quarter of last year.
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The improved outlook on the Government of India announced by rating agency Moody's might need to be viewed with some scepticism. There is no doubt the performance of the Indian economy has sharply improved from the deep trough it hit last year. But the ability of the second largest global ratings agency to assess an upside and downside before events make everyone wise about India has been dismal for a long time, as the chart shows.
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Moody's Investors Service on Wednesday raised the rating outlook for 18 Indian corporates and banks, including Reliance Industries, Infosys, SBI and Axis Bank, to 'stable' from 'negative'. This follows the upgrade by the US-based rating agency in India's sovereign rating outlook to 'stable' from 'negative' on Tuesday. The agency had affirmed the sovereign rating at 'Baa3'.
Global rating agency Moody's on Monday said the high commodity prices and supply chain disruptions due to further escalation in the Russia-Ukraine crisis could expose about 42 per cent of rated Indian companies to significant risks. They are mainly in the oil and gas and automotive sectors. The impact may be seen under two scenarios: first, revised base line and second being downside economic scenarios incorporating a global recession and a more severe liquidity squeeze, it said. The military conflict between Russia and Ukraine is impacting companies in Asia Pacific, adding to existing challenges from supply chain disruption and the coronavirus pandemic.
Telcos in Asia's emerging markets will face higher spectrum liabilities, but these essential costs are not subject to refinancing and have limited immediate impact on cash flows and liquidity, Moody's Investors Service said on Monday. The ratings of Asia-Pacific (APAC) telecom companies in emerging markets can tolerate the increased deferred spectrum liabilities at current levels, if these essential costs are the main driver of high debt or weaker leverage, Moody's Investors Service said in a new report. For emerging markets -- China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippines -- spectrum liabilities to gross debt will increase to more than 16 per cent in 2021 and 2022, from 11.6 per cent in 2020 and 9.3 per cent in 2018, assuming India completes its 5G spectrum auction in 2022, it added.
Moody's Investors Service on Thursday said loans to retail customers, especially those to low-income borrowers, will remain most affected due to the shock caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Despite the pandemic challenges, asset quality at Indian banks has performed better than expected at the start of the outbreak, Moody's said. "Corporate loans, in particular, have performed well because banks prior to the pandemic had largely provisioned for legacy problem loans and tightened underwriting standards," Moody's vice president and senior credit officer Srikanth Vadlamani said. Addressing an online conference organised by Moody's and its affiliate Icra, Vadlamani said an increase in non-performing loans in both public and private sector banks is subdued.
Moody's Investors Service on Thursday upped India growth forecast to (-) 10.6 per cent for the current fiscal, from its earlier estimate of (-) 11.5 per cent, saying the latest stimulus prioritises manufacturing and job creation, and focuses on longer-term growth. Last week the government had announced a new fiscal package amounting to Rs 2.7 lakh crore. Moody's said the latest measures aim to increase the competitiveness of India's manufacturing sector and create jobs, while supporting infrastructure investment, credit availability and stressed sectors.
Moody's Investors Service on Wednesday slashed India's growth projection to 9.6 per cent for the 2021 calendar year, from its earlier estimate of 13.9 per cent, and said faster vaccination progress will be paramount in restricting economic losses to June quarter.
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The government has limited room to reduce expenditure without further weakening growth, it noted.
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Moody's has forecast that China would be the only G-20 country to post growth this year.
Moody's on Monday slashed India's growth forecast for 2020 to 5.4 per cent from 6.6 per cent projected earlier, on slower than expected economic recovery. In its update on Global Macro Outlook, Moody's Investors Service said India's economy has decelerated rapidly over the last 2 years and economic recovery is likely to be 'shallow'.
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The budget underscores government's previous emphasis on capex to sustain near-term recovery from the pandemic, while simultaneously paving the way for longer-term restructuring of the economy, it stated. But the various spending initiatives are not offset by any significant announcements related to further increase revenue generation; rather, the announced revenue-related measures are aimed at other objectives such as fostering startup innovation, ensuring more equitable treatment for cooperatives and state employees, and promoting tax compliance through simplification, Christian de Guzman, a senior vice-president, sovereign risk group, Moody's Investors Service, said.
It said banks' asset quality will deteriorate across the corporate, small and medium enterprises and retail segments, leading to pressure on profitability and capital.
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Moody's on Thursday upped India's growth projection for the next financial year beginning April 1, to 13.7 per cent, from 10.8 per cent estimated earlier, on the back of normalisation of activity and growing confidence in the market with the rollout of COVID-19 vaccine. For current fiscal, the US-based rating agency expects the economy to contract 7 per cent, lower than its previous estimate of 10.6 per cent contraction.
As the largest producer of vaccines in the world, with 60 per cent of the global share, India is well-positioned to use its existing manufacturing capabilities to contribute to mass vaccine production and distribution needs for other countries in addition to meeting its domestic requirements, said Moody's.
Apart from supply chain disruptions, Moody's also expects consumption and investment to be affected and prices of oil and other commodities to remain around current lows until the end of June.
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S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday upgraded India's sovereign rating outlook to positive from stable while retaining the rating at 'BBB-' on robust growth and improved quality of government expenditure. S&P said it could upgrade India's sovereign rating in the next 2 years if the country adopts a cautious fiscal and monetary policy that diminishes the government's elevated debt and interest burden while bolstering economic resilience.
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Moody's Investors Service on Thursday said the credit downturn arising out of COVID-19 will be short-lived but most economies will not return to pre-pandemic activity levels until 2022. In the year since the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020, the virus has disrupted the global economy and triggered a credit downturn accompanied by a spike in bond defaults. "The credit challenges arising from COVID-19 have been substantial, but the credit downturn likely will be relatively short-lived. "Risks remain more significant for the sectors most vulnerable to restrictions on their normal activities," Moody's said in a global report in coronavirus. Stating that most economies will not return to pre-pandemic activity levels until 2022, Moody's said it expects a slow and bumpy global recovery and uncertainty around the macroeconomic outlook remains much higher than usual.
Billionaire Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) has seen pre-tax profit recover to pre-pandemic levels on the back of continued growth in consumer businesses, Moody's Investors Service said on Monday. The oil-to-retail-to-telecom behemoth on Friday reported a 0.7 per cent Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax and depreciation and amortisation) growth for the quarter ended December 31, 2020, compared with the corresponding quarter in the previous year. "A strong performance in digital services and retail segments underpinned the improvement in consolidated earnings, a credit positive," Moody's said commenting on the earnings. Continued growth in earnings combined with the company's strong balance sheet with zero net debt on a reported basis will keep Reliance's credit metrics strong for its Baa2 rating over the next 12-18 months, it said.
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India's top fuel retailers IOC, BPCL and HPCL together lost around $2.25 billion (Rs 19,000 crore) in revenue for keeping petrol and diesel prices on hold during elections in five states, including Uttar Pradesh, Moody's Investors Services said on Thursday. State fuel retailers did not revise petrol and diesel rates for a record 137 days despite prices of crude oil (raw material for producing fuel) rising to $120 per barrel compared to around $82 in early November when the hiatus began. "Based on current market prices, the oil marketing companies are currently incurring a revenue loss of around $25 (over Rs 1,900) per barrel and $24 per barrel on sale of petrol and diesel, respectively," Moody's said in a report.
The government had on Wednesday issued a statement dismissing report of Moody's Analytics.
The opinion of a Junior Associate Economist employed with Moody's Analytics has been splashed all across implying it as the opinion of Moody's Analytics.
The government's second round of stimulus will spur consumer spending in the near term but support to economic growth will be minimal, Moody's Investors Service said.
Moody's Investors Service on Friday projected India's growth at zero per cent for the current fiscal and said the negative outlook on sovereign rating reflects increasing risks that GDP growth will remain significantly lower than in the past. The outlook also partly shows weaker policy effectiveness to address economic and institutional issues, it noted in the update to its November 2019 rating forecast.
Moody's said the negative outlook reflected uncertainty over the refinancing of Macrotech's (formerly Lodha Developers) upcoming debt maturities.
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