Subdued prices of food items like vegetables pulled down retail inflation for the third month in a row to 5.3 per cent in August, within the RBI's comfort zone. While the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based retail inflation declined to 5.3 per cent in August from 6.69 per cent in the same month a year ago, food inflation dipped at a much faster pace to 3.11 per cent from 9.05 per cent in August 2020. The food inflation was also lower than 3.96 per cent in preceding month of July.
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Declining prices of food items like vegetables pulled down retail inflation to 5.59 per cent in July, bringing it back within the RBI's comfort zone after two months, official data showed on Thursday. The retail inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) had remained above 6 per cent during May and June. The government has mandated the RBI to maintain retail inflation at 4 per cent, with a margin of 2 per cent on either side. The CPI based inflation stood at 6.26 per cent in June 2021 and 6.73 per cent in July 2020.
Analysts at Bank of America Merill Lynch said that fears of inflation getting "generalised" are overdone, as only two sub-categories of fuel and light and housing (accounting for 22 per cent of the basket) have seen a price-rise above the headline 5.2 per cent.
A Kotak research report expects RBI to cuts rates by 50 basis points in the first half of 2019. RBI will announce its sixth bi-monthly monetary policy on February 7.
Total liabilities of the government increased to Rs 107.04 lakh crore at end-September 2020 from Rs 101.3 lakh crore at end-June 2020, official data on public debt showed on Wednesday. This represented a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.6 per cent in Q2 FY21. Public debt accounted for 91.1 per cent of total outstanding liabilities at end-September 2020, as per the latest quarterly report on public debt management.
Governor Urjit Patel and his deputies spoke to the media about the central bank's decision to raise the repo rate.
'Banks are being encouraged to lend instead of parking their resources with the RBI and earn risk-free interest income,' points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Retail inflation fell to a five-month low of 4.35 per cent in September from 7.27 per cent in the year-ago period as prices of vegetables and other items declined, according to government data released on Tuesday. The moderation in Consumer Price Index-based inflation is in line with the assessment of Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das who recently projected substantial softening of retail inflation. The CPI inflation was at 5.3 per cent in August and at 7.27 per cent in September 2020.
Top Sensex gainers include Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj Auto, Asian Paints, IndusInd Bank, HUL, and Maruti, rallying up to 5.87 per cent. While, ICICI Bank, NTPC and ITC slipped up to 0.13 per cent.
The government has no plan to print currency notes to tide over the current economic crisis triggered by the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman informed Parliament on Monday. To a question on whether there is any plan to print currency to tide over the crisis, the finance minister said, "No Sir". Many economists and experts have suggested to the government to print more currency notes to tide over the difficult economic situation with a view to support the economy ravaged by the spread of COVID-19, and protect jobs.
India's economy will do well once vaccination reaches a critical mass as pent up demand, global recovery and easy financial conditions will boost activities, RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Ashima Goyal said on Tuesday.
India needs foreign exchange buffer reserves to insulate itself from exchange rate volatility as we have "no friends" for swap lines and Japan was the only country that helped during the taper tantrum in 2013, former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan said on Tuesday. Participating in a virtual event organised by economic think tank NCAER, Rajan said during the taper tantrum in 2013, India asked for swap lines, and only country who helped was Japan. "We need this (foreign exchange) reserve buffer to insulate ourselves because we have no friends.
The Urjit Patel committee on monetary policy framework has proposed setting up of a monetary policy committee (MPC) that will be headed by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor and accountable for achieving inflation target set by it.
Declining vegetable prices brought down the retail inflation to a 15-month low of 4.59 per cent in December and within the comfort zone of the Reserve Bank, government data showed on Tuesday. It is for the first time during the current fiscal that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation print is below 6 per cent or in the RBI's target range of 2 to 6 per cent. The central bank factors in the CPI-based inflation while arriving at its monetary policy. The inflation in December 2020 came down from 6.93 per cent in November, mainly on account of 10.41 per cent decline in vegetable prices over the year-ago period.
Here are the key decisions announced by the Reserve Bank of India on Thursday.
Urjit Patel panel wanted all members to be appointed by RBI
The central bank and Indian government has reached a "broad consensus" on the composition of a rate-setting panel.
The main reason was that CPI inflation would likely remain below 4 per cent till July.
Lower inflation, FCNR(B) outflows likely to influence central bank decision
Industry players said they were indeed seeing a serious fall in capacity usage, though some sectors were seeming to prevent further fall in the overall capacity utilisation.
Sentiments were also bearish largely in tandem with a sell-off in global markets as US Treasury yields surged to multi-year highs on robust economic data and comments from the Federal Reserve, sparking fears of accelerating inflation, brokers said.
A V Rajwade wonders if the Modi sarkar is pursuing price stability at the cost of potential social instability in both rural and urban India.
Most central banks across the world have around 5-7 years of tenure for the governor and deputy governors.
ICICI Bank was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising around 4 per cent, followed by UltraTech Cement, Sun Pharma, Bharti Airtel, HUL, SBI, L&T, Axis Bank and IndusInd Bank. On the other hand, Reliance Industries, Bajaj Finserv, HCL Tech and HDFC were among the laggards.
The National Stadium, set to host the Opening and Closing Ceremonies, is one of the venues that has been successfully secured for 2021.
The RBI has set up a panel to review ATM charges, and fees levied by banks.
The six-member monetary policy committee voted 5:1 for the decision, with only Ravindra Dholakia voting for a 0.25 per cent reduction in rates.
RBI policy, macro data, company earnings to decide market course this week: Experts
The economic growth is likely to moderate to 6.1 per cent, slowest in over seven quarters, from 6.6 per cent last year same period.
The Reserve Bank's growth projection for next financial year is lower than 8-8.5 per cent projected by the finance ministry in the recent Economic Survey which was tabled in Parliament on January 31. Unveiling the bi-monthly policy, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das said, "Recovery in domestic economic activity is yet to be broad-based, as private consumption and contact-intensive services remain below pre-pandemic levels."
Inflation rate during August, the data for which is yet to be released, was likely to remain at about 7 per cent, said SBI Ecowrap.
investors will look to the new governor to continue the banking sector clean-up with the same urgency as Mr Rajan, who was targeting fully cleaned-up and provisioned balance sheets by March 2017
Retail inflation crossed the RBI's comfort level and rose to 5.21 per cent in December on increase in prices of food items.
Mizoram Chief Minister Lal Thanhawla is likely to contest the November 25 Assembly polls from Serchhip constituency from where he has won five times and also from Hrangturzo, Congress sources have said.
'If there is an RBI majority in the committee, there is no question of a veto.'
In a business friendly move, the Reserve Bank of India on Friday said that Real Time Gross Settlement System (RTGS), used for large value transactions, will be made available round-the-clock from December. In December 2019, the National Electronic Funds Transfer (NEFT) system was made available on a 24x7x365 basis. Currently, RTGS is available for customers from 7.00 am to 6.00 pm on all working days of a week, except second and fourth Saturdays of every month.
The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday retained the economic growth projection for the current financial year at 10.5 per cent, while cautioning that the recent surge in COVID-19 infections has created uncertainty over the economic growth recovery. In its last policy review, the RBI had projected a GDP growth rate of 10.5 pc for FY'22. Taking various factors into consideration, it said, "the projection of real GDP growth for 2021-22 is retained at 10.5 per cent consisting of 26.2 per cent in Q1, 8.3 per cent in Q2, 5.4 per cent in Q3 and 6.2 per cent in Q4."
A likely easing in inflationary pressures in the forthcoming months will reopen the window for the RBI to once again prioritise growth and ease its interest rates.
Amid uncertainties arising out of the second wave of COVID-19, the Reserve Bank on Thursday said that a durable revival of private consumption and investment would be critical for sustaining economic growth post-pandemic. Observing that 2020-21 has left a scar on the economy, RBI in its annual report said, "in the midst of the second wave as 2021-22 commences, pervasive despair is being lifted by cautious optimism built up by vaccination drives." The second wave of the pandemic has prompted revision of growth projections for the current fiscal and the consensus appears to be gravitating towards RBI's forecast of 10.5 per cent, the report added.
While efforts are being mounted on a war footing to arrest its spread, COVID-19 will impact economic activity in India directly through domestic lockdown. The second-round effects, it said, would operate through a severe slowdown in global trade and growth.
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