This year, the monsoon was above normal in almost all parts, except in North-West India, which comprises the major grain producing states of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, along with states such as Himachal Pradesh, the NCR, Uttarakhand, and J&K.
Monsoon revival over weekend likely, but second-half rainfall may be muted. If the rains become scarce after mid-August, the standing kharif crops might be impacted
Riding high on the hopes of a normal monsoon, the agriculture ministry aims to increase foodgrain production by 6.35 million tonnes to a record 298.3 million tonnes in the 2020-21 crop year. The foodgrain output in the 2019-20 crop year (July-June) is estimated at an all-time high 291.95 million tonnes, as per the second advance estimates released by the ministry in February.
As the growth figures relate to pre-Covid lockdown period it does not reflect the real picture of distress which unfolded from April onwards in the sector, when acute supply disruption led to sharp drop in prices of many commodities largely perishables impacting farmers.
India's crucial monsoon will be normal this year but with less heavier rains as the weather office on Friday marginally downgraded its earlier forecast.
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The India Meteorological Department (IMD), for the first time, officially hinted at a drought-like situation, saying the southwest monsoon over India in 2012 is likely to be deficient at below 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).
Assocham-Skymet report says untimely rain may reappear in north India.
El Nino is expected to occur in August-September, but it is unlikely to have any major impact on the monsoon, and the weatherman expects a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which has a strong influence on rainfall in the country.
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The India Meteorological Department's first monsoon forecast for this year would have gladdened many a heart with the hope of plentiful rain, after two drought years.
The IMD dispelled fears by forecasting a normal monsoon for June-September. Rainfall is expected to be 98 per cent of the long period average, significantly higher compared to last year's 77 per cent LPA.
Given IMD's past record on forecasts, the latest one could also go wrong.
IMD will present its month-wise and region-wise forecast in June.
While the IMD had forecast a 'normal' monsoon for the entire season, Skymet stated that rain this year would be 'below normal', report Sanjeeb Mukherjee and Sahil Makkar.
The forecast for better rains this seasons comes after India witnessed one of the worst droughts in recent times when the monsoon had failed last year.
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With monsoon rainfall 16% below the long-period average, total sowing area is down by 7% at 56.7 million hectares so far this season.
Though the summer is expected to be hotter, global and domestic forecasts point to good rains.
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A five-seven per cent agriculture growth in 2013-14 would mean farming might exceed the 12th Five-Year Plan annual growth target of four per cent, if the trend continues.
The news will augur well for the country as large parts have been witnessing agriculture distress and water levels in reservoirs in west and south India have dipped to low levels.
The Budget allocation for Ministry of Agriculture and allied activities has grown by 114% since 2010-11
The agriculture sector has witnessed feeble growth on account of drought for two successive years
Till June 30, the southwest monsoon was 33 per cent lower than normal, which is among the worst in the last five years, with 28 of the 36 meteorological divisions recording deficient rain.
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Till Thursday, the country had received 41 per cent less June rainfall than normal - the scantiest in a decade and one of the rarest occasions when the shortfall in the month was more than 30 per cent - private weather forecaster Skymet said in its daily weather forecast on Friday.
The prices of oilseed, coarse cereals & vegetables could also be affected.
A third of FMCG sales and half of motorcycle sales come from the hinterlands
According to Skymet Weather, the initial surge in the Monsoon rains can be attributed to the transition of El Nino into the neutral phase.
The central bank, however, warned that the downside risks to growth could play out if global recovery slows.
The government hopes of registering GDP growth rate ranging between 6.1-6.7 per cent in 2013-14.
It has also advanced into most parts of Tamil Nadu, some parts of south interior Karnataka and remaining parts of south Bay of Bengal, according to IMD.
Total area sown till last Friday was 16.56 mn hectares, up 23%.
'The last time we had such a late withdrawal of monsoon was in 1960 or so.'
The impact of weak monsoon so far this year on India's farm production and economy is likely to be limited, the central bank said, as rainfall levels have improved considerably over the past one month.
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