As the southwest monsoon continues to narrow its overall deficit, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Wednesday exuded confidence that the dreaded El Nino weather pattern was unlikely to affect monsoon rains this year.
Because of late monsoon, arrival of kharif (summer) onion crops would be delayed by a month in key growing areas of Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, threatening to push up prices in the late September and October.
On one hand Karnataka Agriculture Minister Umesh Katti, Water Resources Minister Basavaraj Bommai and Rural Development Minister Jagadish Shettar are plotting the fall of Chief Minister Sadananda Gowda, while on the other hand the state continues to reel under drought with 123 taluks declared as drought hit.
Scenario is precarious for urad with almost half the crop damaged in major growing states, tur quota of 400,000 tonnes already exhausted.
The rains in August have also led to speculation that if the trend continues, rains in September, the terminal month of the four-month monsoon season, could be better, thus aiding production of paddy and other kharif crops.
El Nino refers to abnormal warming of surface ocean waters in the Pacific that disrupts weather pattern causing drought and floods in many regions of the world.
The cost of production of onion is around 800-900 per quintal, while prices are hovering around 500 per quintal across major wholesale markets.
This could be the reason why Prime Minister Narendra Modi mentioned tomato, onion, and potato as his government's 'TOP' priority, in an election rally on February 5 in poll-bound Karnataka.
Though monsoon risks to overall economic growth could be limited due to small share of agriculture output in GDP, the impact may be significant because it affects the poor through inflation and income, RBI noted in its 'First Quarter Review of Monetary Policy 2012-13'.
The regulator has doubled the deposit money that a trader is required to keep with exchanges for trading in turmeric following unusual price movement.
The southwest monsoon has picked up pace, and is now on the verge of covering almost the entire country.
Benchmark policy rate unchanged at 6.75 per cent.
Vegetable arrivals at mandis, especially in Maharashtra, have declined by more than 50 per cent since the beginning of the month.
Consumer goods companies remain hopeful of good rainfall this year despite the prediction of a possible drought-causing El Nino weather phenomenon in August-September.
Total area sown till last Friday was 16.56 mn hectares, up 23%.
The monsoon rains have been 31 per cent below average up to July 2, Pawar told reporters in New Delhi.
He said the global toy industry is over Rs 7 lakh crore but India's share is very small, as he stressed on the need to work to increase it.
Skymet said the monsoon this year could be 100 per cent of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of plus and minus 5 per cent.
The government is committed to taking all initiatives needed for the development of the agriculture sector and farmers' welfare, he said.
FCI's suspension of tur under MSP is likely to force farmers to undergo distress sales of the commodity.
Home Minister Rajnath Singh said that the decision could cost the government roughly Rs 15,000 crore.
The decision, taken by the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, comes less than a year before next general election.
A pick-up in farmer income could have a cascading impact on the rural economy, though agriculture is becoming a smaller part of India's overall rural incomes.
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Pranab Mukherjee on Thursday said that though the exact impact of the drought on the Kharif crop would be known only when the harvesting begins, there is every possibility of a shortfall of 15-20 percent.
Diseases caused by unseasonal rains have ruined almost 70 per cent of the kharif onion crop in Maharashtra this year, which is responsible for the nationwide shortage of the commodity, a senior ICAR official said on Thursday.
The monsoon this year in India was likely to be 'below normal' at 95% of LPA: Skymet
The lockdown has taught companies a lesson or two on running business with fewer human resources. These lessons are unlikely to be forgotten, observes Mahesh Vyas.
The well-irrigated states of Punjab, Haryana, Karnataka, western Uttar Pradesh and coastal states such as Odisha are, for the first time, feeling the effects of a poor monsoon.
A closer look at the data reveals that a lot of the items are not part of this calculation. The notable ones include buffalo meat, marine exports, raw cotton, and plantation crops such as tea, coffee, rubber, etc.
Price of ladies finger shot up staggering 236% at Vashi wholesale market last month.
Progress on monsoons along with favourable base effect in 2HFY2017 continues to point towards RBI achieving its near 5 per cent inflation target by the year-end
Allegations abound that traders milked the scheme to artificially keep prices down, while a significant amount of growers didn't even register owing to multiple difficulties in registration and were deprived of the payout.
Skymet lowered its full season monsoon forecast to 'below normal' from 'normal', while the IMD is sticking to its earlier forecast that rains in June to September of 2018 would be 'normal' at 97 per cent of the LPA with a model error of +/-5 per cent.
If more commodities which have seen a sharp rise in MSP are to be procured, such as pulses, oilseed and cereals, there could be a storage problem. Also, if state-owned Cotton Corporation of India joins in, this problem will aggravate.
NCIPM's awareness-cum-surveillance project helped reduce the pest-infected area in Maharashtra by 67 per cent.
The impact of weak monsoon so far this year on India's farm production and economy is likely to be limited, the central bank said, as rainfall levels have improved considerably over the past one month.
The new MSP would worsen, rather than rectify, the two most pressing problems of Indian agriculture: Wastage of water from all sources and a tendency towards monocropping, says Shreekant Sambrani. On the other hand, a simple-minded recourse to them without a host of supporting measures could well exacerbate not just agriculture, but the overall economy as well, says Shreekant Sambrani.
Twelve of the 36 meteorological subdivisions recorded deficient rainfall, while the rest witnessed normal to excess rain. In total, 38 per cent of the 662 districts received below-normal rain.
Bajaj Auto was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, surging 3.95 per cent followed by Maruti Suzuki at 2.69 per cent.
