Monsoon, the life-line of Indian agriculture, has been deficient by 13 per cent so far, affecting the sowing of kharif crops, particularly coarse cereals and pulses.
The output of pulses and oilseeds in 2012-2013 is likely to fall by 14.61 per cent and 9.62 per cent, respectively, says the first official estimate of kharif season. Experts warn this could trigger a spike in food prices.
Monsoon in August was almost 24 per cent below normal, which was the sixth driest August since 1901. It came on the back of a 7-per cent monsoon shortfall in July.
A likely western disturbance over north India during the weekend might cause heavy to very heavy showers in a few places, including New Delhi.
Referring to visible indicators of green shoots, the finance minister said the forex reserve is at an all time high and the stock market is upbeat.
India consumes around 24-25 million tonnes of pulses, but sowing trends show this year production is expected to be lower compared to last year.
Agriculturally important UP, MP, Haryana, Maharashtra, and Punjab received 20-30% shortfall in rain
Keeping the employment rate from slipping is challenging. To merely keep the employment rate unchanged, the economy has to generate additional jobs. It needs to run to stay where it is, points out Mahesh Vyas.
'The spirit of cooperation between the Centre and states has been diluted in many ways.' 'The level of consultation which used to be there earlier has reduced significantly.'
These three states sought a combined financial assistance of Rs 11,186 crore
India exports about 1.5 mt of onion every year.
Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha and Gujarat, have been left out, despite a strong start to the monsoon in June
Rising commodity costs, coupled with other marketing-related expenses, could weigh on profitability in the coming quarters.
The government on Monday exempted importers of pulses from stock limits, and also relaxed the norms for millers and wholesalers, in view of softening of prices of the key pulses in the country. Now, the stock limits will be applicable only on tur, urad, gram and masoor for a period up to October 31, it said. However, these entities will continue to declare their stocks on the web portal of the Department of Consumer Affairs, it added. A revised order in this regard has been notified.
On a day when several mandis across the country are closed in protest against the recent Centre's decision to impose stringent stock-holding limit on pulses, the government clarified that limits have been defined as retail prices are still higher than last year though there is some moderation in the last few weeks. It said the same logic also holds true for edible oils, the import duties on which was slashed few days back and curbs lifted on import of refined oils. The decision on edible oil and pulses have caused massive resentment among the trading community as it came just ahead of the kharif sowing season, when prices were off their peaks due to multiple steps announced previously. Sources said trading activity in some of the major mandis dealing in pulses such as Sholapur, Amravati and Latur in Maharashtra, Indore and Dewas in Madhya Pradesh along with Kanpur in Uttar Pradesh was impacted as traders went on a flash strike in protest against the decision to impose stock limits.
In Delhi, the wholesale price is now Rs 48-52 a kg; the retail one is Rs 80 a kg.
Sanjiv Mehta, chairman of the country's largest consumer goods company, HUL, believes that the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic between April and June this year has been a mere pause in India's consumption story, and that it will not change the country's overall growth trajectory. India is poised for growth, especially in the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector, Mehta told shareholders at the company's annual general meeting on Tuesday. The signs of recovery are becoming evident with many states lifting lockdown restrictions in recent weeks.
Currently, the retail inflation is well below the RBI's comfort level. The government has asked the central bank to keep inflation in the range of 4 per cent.
Low rain coupled with the fact that maize prices in the open market have surged from around Rs 15-16 a kg to almost Rs 25 this year have forced farmers to turn to this crop.
A favourable monsoon and government support to the rural economy are among the reasons that agrochemical companies, including makers of pesticides and fertilisers, have done well.
With social distancing in customer's mind coupled with the government's push to further normalise business conditions and banks becoming more considerate to finance vehicles, entry level passenger vehicles saw good demand.
This year's kharif output may be higher than last year but it will be short of 2007 or 2008 levels.
In the context of RBI's view that the real interest rate, defined as the repo rate less "look forward" CPI, should be around 150-200 basis points.
For July-September, it pegged CPI-based retail inflation at 4.2 per cent which it saw firming up to 4.8 per cent in the second half of the current fiscal.
Spiralling prices pinched the pocket of consumer as edible oil, fuel and many other commodities turned dearer this year amid pandemic-induced disruptions but the inflationary pressure is anticipated to ease, though marginally, in the coming months. As consumers, at retail as well as wholesale levels, are willy-nilly learning to live with the new normal of curbs to contain the spread of coronavirus infections, experts are of the view that elevated inflation is likely to stay longer. After dealing with the devastating blows from the second COVID wave, especially during the April-June period, the economy is well on the revival path but the emergence of Omicron might unsettle the recovery trajectory in the short term.
Much of the rural recovery story is based on the premise of agriculture doing well. Even if it clocks a growth of 2.5-3 per cent this year, it is still just around 15 per cent of the overall GDP. The non-farm sector, which constitutes a bigger portion of the overall rural economy, is now hampered by disruptions and lockdowns.
The NITI Aayog, in a concept note floated a few months back, had suggested three models of procurement but the Centre, at least for the time being, has decided to rely on existing PSS schemes along with giving states the option of choosing Bhawantar Bhugtan for oilseeds.
'Usually, urban wage rates are 50 per cent higher than rural wage rates. But, this could be narrowing very rapidly now,' points out Mahesh Vyas, CEO, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy.
NITI Aayog has been working on an action plan to relieve rural distress and energise the agricultural sector
Bhupesh Baghel said about his father that he respected his father as a son, but as a chief minister, none of his mistakes that will disturb public order can be ignored.
The Bharatiya Janata Party-led state government is acquiring groundnut at Rs 4,500 per quintal; the market price is Rs 3,500 per quintal
In the coming four months from August, agitating farmers will hold 400 meetings across the country to highlight farmers' issues and protest against government claims, reports Sanjeeb Mukherjee.
If the quantity purchased from anywhere in the country exceeds 25,000 tonnes, the central government will also have to be informed in writing.
The final agriculture GDP numbers for 2016-17 are expected to be revised up, as rabi production is looking really good.
Owing to erratic monsoons this year, the kharif grain output is projected to fall 18 per cent to a seven-year low of 96.63 million tonnes against last year's 117.70 million tonnes.
The Reserve Bank on Friday said the agriculture growth will be muted this fiscal on account of the impact of poor monsoon on kharif crops.
Agriculture activity, according to recent channel checks by Prabhudas Lilladher, is expected to continue at a strong pace in FY22.
Skymet is credited with correctly predicting the 2009 drought.
The India Pulses and Grains Association estimates production of kharif pulses at seven mt this year.
Farmers have either dropped or delayed sowing of summer crops due to poor rains.
