Sanjiv Mehta, chairman of the country's largest consumer goods company, HUL, believes that the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic between April and June this year has been a mere pause in India's consumption story, and that it will not change the country's overall growth trajectory. India is poised for growth, especially in the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector, Mehta told shareholders at the company's annual general meeting on Tuesday. The signs of recovery are becoming evident with many states lifting lockdown restrictions in recent weeks.
The India Pulses and Grains Association estimates production of kharif pulses at seven mt this year.
Farmers have either dropped or delayed sowing of summer crops due to poor rains.
The Bharatiya Janata Party-led state government is acquiring groundnut at Rs 4,500 per quintal; the market price is Rs 3,500 per quintal
The final agriculture GDP numbers for 2016-17 are expected to be revised up, as rabi production is looking really good.
Skymet is credited with correctly predicting the 2009 drought.
NITI Aayog has been working on an action plan to relieve rural distress and energise the agricultural sector
Much of the rural recovery story is based on the premise of agriculture doing well. Even if it clocks a growth of 2.5-3 per cent this year, it is still just around 15 per cent of the overall GDP. The non-farm sector, which constitutes a bigger portion of the overall rural economy, is now hampered by disruptions and lockdowns.
In the coming four months from August, agitating farmers will hold 400 meetings across the country to highlight farmers' issues and protest against government claims, reports Sanjeeb Mukherjee.
'Usually, urban wage rates are 50 per cent higher than rural wage rates. But, this could be narrowing very rapidly now,' points out Mahesh Vyas, CEO, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy.
Till August 21, 246 districts were declared as drought affected, out of the 600-plus districts in the country.
Spiralling prices pinched the pocket of consumer as edible oil, fuel and many other commodities turned dearer this year amid pandemic-induced disruptions but the inflationary pressure is anticipated to ease, though marginally, in the coming months. As consumers, at retail as well as wholesale levels, are willy-nilly learning to live with the new normal of curbs to contain the spread of coronavirus infections, experts are of the view that elevated inflation is likely to stay longer. After dealing with the devastating blows from the second COVID wave, especially during the April-June period, the economy is well on the revival path but the emergence of Omicron might unsettle the recovery trajectory in the short term.
The kharif grain output is estimated to have declined 2.48 per cent to 117.96 million tonnes while the rabi grain output has remained flat at 109.92 million tonnes, according to a government release. Output has declined mainly in kharif pulses and coarse cereals while a marginal dip has been projected in the rabi wheat output.
Bhupesh Baghel said about his father that he respected his father as a son, but as a chief minister, none of his mistakes that will disturb public order can be ignored.
Agriculture activity, according to recent channel checks by Prabhudas Lilladher, is expected to continue at a strong pace in FY22.
The Centre will utilise huge network of post offices across the country to sell subsidised pulses, mainly tur, urad and chana, to ensure availability in the ongoing festival season.
The India meteorological department has stated that day temperatures are likely to be above normal by 0.5 degree Celsius, reports Sanjeeb Mukherjee.
The domestic availability of onion has been affected on account of damage to kharif crop because of unseasonal rains in key producing states including Maharashtra.
According to the first advance estimates of crop production for 2007-08 report that was released on Wednesday, India can expect record production in maize, oybean, cotton and sugarcane crops.
According to Krishi Bhawan officials in New Delhi, due to the well-distributed rainfall this monsoon, kharif production is set to rise perceptibly and consequently the net sown area will also increase.
From NITI Aayog to industry leaders to the Reserve Bank of India, all are apprehensive that any major increase in MSP, following the 2018-19 Budget announcements, would push up prices, if not immediately, in the next six to eight months after the decision is taken.
There is good news for the Central government, which is struggling to rein in inflation. Monsoon rains were more than normal in June and the government can hope for a better kharif crop, which in turn may help reduce inflation.
The summer and rainy weather is favourable for locusts and they move from one place to another during this time, travelling 150 km in a day.
The Reserve Bank remains laser-focused to bring back retail inflation to 4 per cent over a period of time in a non-disruptive manner, Governor Shaktikanta Das stressed while voting for status quo in interest rates, as per minutes of the October policy meeting released on Friday. The central bank has been mandated by the government to ensure the Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation is at 4 per cent, with a band of 2 per cent on either side. The retail inflation, which was above 6 per cent during May and June, has started moving down and stood at 4.35 per cent in September.
Expecting a better price realisation this year, farmers have gone for pulses in a big way this year.
Prices moved up sharply in recent months.
Under Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi (PM-KISAN) scheme, the Centre provides an annual financial benefit of Rs 6,000 to eligible beneficiary farmers in three equal four-monthly installments of Rs 2,000 each.
Indicators show green shoots in the economy with electricity and fuel consumption, inter and intra-state movement of goods, PMI data and retail financial transactions witnessing a pick-up, she said.
However, the growth, driven largely by a bumper rabi harvest and facilitated by relaxation in lockdown, may not have resulted in a big rise in income for a section of farmers.
The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday hiked the expected GDP growth for the year ending March 31, 2007 to 8.5-9 per cent.
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'The answer for a quicker boost to growth is simple -- run a much larger deficit, use the resulting public resources to ensure adequate price support for agriculture, subsidise wage costs of MSMEs and accelerate public sector construction-intensive activities,' advises Nitin Desai.
Acreage of these crops is likely to fall as prices drop below MSP in mandis; area under cotton, maize may increase on better realisation
Prime Minister Modi has certainly pulled back, and his political capital -- dependent as it is on an image that he knows best and never retreats -- may have taken a bit of a beating. But, equally, it is hard to say that the protesters have 'won', argues Mihir S Sharma.
The Reserve Bank on Friday projected retail inflation to be in 5-5.2 per cent range during the first half of the next fiscal year, expecting further softening of vegetables prices in near term. Also, it has lowered the retail inflation forecast for the current January-March quarter of 2020-21 fiscal at 5.2 per cent. The Reserve Bank (RBI) has kept the key policy rate unchanged at 4 per cent, with an accommodative stance, so as to ensure that inflation remains well within the target, Governor Shaktikanta Das said while announcing the last monetary policy of 2020-21.
The recent improvement in consumer sentiment is almost entirely a rural India story. Much of the corporate sector reposes faith in rural India to fuel its growth, observes Mahesh Vyas.
With rainfall and monsoons becoming highly unpredictable partly due to climate change and partly due to usual changes in weather patterns, it is such innovations by IMD which will help in planning better, reports Sanjeeb Mukherjee.
The sluggish southwest monsoon, which yielded one of the driest Junes in a century this year, appears disappointing this month as well.
The most serious recommendations to change the financial year came in the years preceded by deficient rainfall. The Jha committee was formed after droughts in 1979-80 and 1982-83, reports Rishika Pardikar/IndiaSpend.
