The RBI on Wednesday cautioned that while the Indian economy appears capable of weathering the deterioration in geopolitical conditions amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, it faces headwinds from global spillovers from geopolitical tensions, elevated commodity prices and moderating external demand. The RBI, however, did not tinker with the GDP growth projection made in April. It had slashed the GDP growth projection for the fiscal 2022-23 to 7.2 per cent from its earlier forecast of 7.8 per cent.
The provision of consultation with the states has further created confusion on MSP
In twin blows to Indian economic revival, higher food prices drove retail inflation to a five-month high of 7.4 per cent while factory output fell for the first time in 18 months. The second consecutive month of rise in consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation will add to the pressure on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to again raise interest rates to tame high prices. Inflation has been above the targeted zone for the ninth month in a row and as per statute, the RBI will now have to explain to the government in writing why it failed to keep prices below 6 per cent.
The government has also extended till August 31 the repayment date of short-term crop loan of up to Rs 3 lakh for agriculture and allied activities. The decision, taken by the Cabinet headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, will give respite to farmers and also help them take a call on which kharif (summer) crop to grow as sowing picks up with the arrival of southwest monsoon.
There was a delay in sowing of kharif onion because of late arrival of monsoon and later floods in many states damaged the crop.
Companies expect to reach full capacity in August after fixing supply chains that collapsed in the months-long lockdown to contain the coronavirus.
The government's main rate setting panel suggested that this be done in two tranches of Rs 2,500 each in the kharif and rabi seasons.
'The decision to supply free food grains is not an economically sound decision because the government will find it very difficult in future to charge anything for food grains.'
The festival season has already begun in the west and south of India with Ganesh Chaturthi and Onam, respectively, and consumer companies are witnessing a pick-up in sales compared to pre-Covid levels. Retailers, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) and consumer durables companies expect their sales to grow in double digits this festival season compared to pre-pandemic times, as there are no curbs on movement now. Adani Wilmar expects sales volume to be higher by 15-20 per cent as rural India has largely witnessed good monsoon rains, and employment has picked up in urban areas.
Supply chain constraints will keep plaguing automobile companies even though demand significantly improved resulting in a 13 per cent year-on-year (YoY) increase in sales in financial year 2021-22 (FY22). Executives at auto firms fear that the Russia-Ukraine war will further dent the sector's prospects of recovery as supply chains face more disruptions. "The visibility in the supply side is so hazy that it is difficult to give even one quarter projection. But all the parameters of demand like pending bookings and enquiries are increasing.
The economy is expected to throw up better numbers in the September quarter with GDP contraction of 9.9 per cent, as against 24 per cent in Q1 at the onset of the pandemic, says a report. The government will release the Q2 GDP numbers later this month. In the first contraction since 1980, the economy shrank a full 23.9 per cent in the first quarter of the fiscal after the whole nation was put under a strict lockdown.
He also said that train services will resume after the state government and protesting farmer unions assure the safety of the tracks. Tomar and Union Food, Commerce and Railways Minister Piyush Goyal held a day-long meeting with representatives of various farmer unions at Vigyan Bhawan in New Delhi.
The study showed that 50 per cent of households have reduced the number of meals ever since the lockdown was imposed
Both red and yellow onions have been imported from Turkey, Egypt and Afghanistan. The shipments are landing at Mumbai port.
Sowing of crops at this point of time, when the onset of monsoon is delayed and chances of good rains are less, will only push up the cost for farmers and also hamper the yield of the crop: Skymet.
India's current account deficit is expected to deteriorate in the current fiscal on account of costlier imports and tepid merchandise exports, according to the Finance Ministry's monthly economic review. The review released on Thursday by the ministry also said that global headwinds would continue to pose a downside risk to growth as crude oil and edibles, which have driven inflation in India, remain major imported components in the consumption basket. For the present, it said, "their global prices have softened, as fears of recession have dampened prices somewhat. This would weaken inflationary pressures in India and rein in inflation."
The latest official numbers on the price of agricultural produce gives an idea of what's fueling the farmers' protest in Delhi.
Monsoon revival over weekend likely, but second-half rainfall may be muted. If the rains become scarce after mid-August, the standing kharif crops might be impacted
Prices started rising again beyond Rs 30 per kg in the last one week and are now ruling at Rs 32 per kg at Lasalgaon
'Akhilesh did politics like Rabi and Kharif crop which come once a year. Politics is not seasonal, you have to harvest your field all through the year and only then you get a good crop' Political analyst lists 12 reasons why Akhilesh Yadav lost the UP elections.
Labour seems to have found employment as maids, cooks, gardeners, security guards and the like -- a transition that could be described as from farms to the kitchen sink, instead of farms to factories, observes Mahesh Vyas.
This year, the monsoon was above normal in almost all parts, except in North-West India, which comprises the major grain producing states of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, along with states such as Himachal Pradesh, the NCR, Uttarakhand, and J&K.
However, the areas under paddy - the biggest cereal grown during the kharif season - continue to be less than last year, mainly due to delayed onset of rains and also on account of shift towards the more lucrative maize.
Foodgrain output stood at 129.94 million tonnes (mt) in last year's Kharif season.
As the growth figures relate to pre-Covid lockdown period it does not reflect the real picture of distress which unfolded from April onwards in the sector, when acute supply disruption led to sharp drop in prices of many commodities largely perishables impacting farmers.
Despite onion prices hitting Rs 130 a kg in the wholesale market, farmers have not gained enough to make a profit this season. Farmers and other stakeholders in the value chain estimate that 30 per cent crop damage this kharif season would result in a decline of about 2 million tonnes in output from Lasalgaon district alone. Similar crop damage across the country could lead to an onion shortage of nearly 7 million tonnes this year.
It has decided not to levy the 2 per cent tax deducted at source (TDS) on cash payments above Rs 1 crore made through Agricultural Produce Market Committees.
Enthused by rising potato prices after a prolonged slump, Pradeep Sharma was planning to sow the crop on his 15-acre farm near Agra slightly earlier than usual. The delayed departure of the southwest monsoon also prompted his decision, since the good soil moisture would have saved at least one initial irrigation. But the acute shortage of diammonium phosphate (DAP), a crucial nutrient ahead of the sowing season for potatoes, nipped those hopes in the bud. DAP is the second-most used fertiliser in the country after urea.
The government has made its flagship crop insurance schemes voluntary for farmers with existing crop loans or those willing to take new ones, as it seeks to address the concerns raised by farmers' body and states in implementation of these programmes. "The Union Cabinet has approved the revamping of 'Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY)' and 'Restructured Weather Based Crop Insurance Scheme (RWBCIS)' to address the existing challenges in implementation of crop insurance schemes," an official statement said.
The crop is currently trading at Rs 22 a kg compared to Rs 12.50 one month ago.
Onion is currently trading between Rs 70 and Rs 80 in retail markets across the country.
At the benchmark Lasalgaon Agricultural Produce Market Committee (APMC) mandi, the model onion price shot up to Rs 21.50 a kg on Thursday, as against Rs 16.50 a kg on Wednesday. This was the highest since February 11.
The Russia-Ukraine crisis, along with general bullishness in agricultural commodities, has ensured that after a fairly long time, most of the 24 commodities for which the Centre declares the minimum support price (MSP) are trading above it. The exceptions here are chana or gram and a few varieties of pulses. This might gladden the farmers, especially those who are still holding on to their stocks from the previous kharif harvest or are harvesting the latest rabi crop. But this could stoke retail and wholesale inflation.
DroughtThe Centre is expected to discuss issues related to drought management and also review the progress of major central schemes like soil health cards, irrigation programmes
In order to check the abnormal surge in edible oil prices during Diwali festivities, as many as 18 states are in the process of imposing stock holding limits on oilseeds and edible oils after being empowered by the Centre for doing so. Of the 18 states that are in the process of imposing stock limit on my edible oils apart from UP, include Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Odisha, Kerala, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Tripura and the Union Territory of Chandigarh. Of the 18, Uttar Pradesh, has already imposed stock limits on edible oils, the Centre was informed with as many as 23 states to discuss ways and means to ensure further easing of edible oil prices.
Because of the reluctance to intervene structurally in the political economy of onion trade, the BJP is paying the price till today and might continue to do so in the forthcoming election to the Delhi assembly.
'Obviously, MSP hike raises chances of a reduction in exports. Even without an MSP hike, India's exports of a number of agri-commodities, like sugar, were unviable in the overseas markets.'
So far, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal governments have taken the imported onions.
President Ram Nath Kovind on Monday said the country's farm production and procurement increased during 2020-21 crop year despite the pandemic and agricultural exports reached a record level of Rs 3 lakh crore during the same period. In his address to the joint sitting of both Houses of Parliament at the start of the Budget session, Kovind said the government is focusing on making the country self-sufficient in edible oils besides making special efforts to promote organic farming, natural farming and crop diversification. "My government is working continuously to empower the farmers and the rural economy of the country... I would like to give maximum credit to the small farmers of the country for this consistent success and strengthening of the agriculture sector," he said.
Flood victims have been fighting for survival and living in temporary shelters nearby railway tracks with lack of food items. They are yet to get any help from the government, reports M I Khan.
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