While growth in India is largely domestic and hence the overall GDP effect may not be more than 0.15-0.2%, but overall trade will be impacted due to every country going back to the drawing board, points out Madan Sabnavis.
'Always ensure that lease terms are clearly written in the agreement, including rent escalation clauses and notice periods.'
Investors would track a host of macroeconomic data announcements scheduled this week, including inflation numbers, and also monitor global market trends, and trading activity of foreign institutional investors, analysts said. The ongoing quarterly earnings announcements and the rupee-dollar trend would also influence the markets.
The USTR report, released just ahead of the US' April 2 deadline for implementing reciprocal tariffs, has also cited high tariffs and price caps, which have not increased in line with inflation, as key obstacles for US businesses.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) state of the economy report observed that any durable alignment of headline retail inflation with the target of 4 per cent could recommence in the second half of FY25 and sustain until numbers closer to the target are seen during the course of FY26, dashing hopes of any reduction in the policy repo rate in the current financial year. The report, authored by RBI staffers, including Deputy Governor in charge of monetary policy Michael Patra, said though headline numbers may fall in July and August due to base effect, it is likely to reverse in September.
The Enforcement Directorate (ED) has uncovered "multiple irregularities" in the operations of TASMAC, the state-run monopoly controlling liquor trade in Tamil Nadu. The agency found evidence of "manipulation" in tender processes and "unaccounted" cash transactions worth Rs 1,000 crore through distillery companies. The ED alleges that these irregularities involved "kickbacks" to secure increased supply orders from TASMAC and systematic inflation of expenses by distillery companies to siphon off unaccounted cash.
The Reserve Bank on Friday retained inflation projection at 4.5 per cent for the current financial year, lower than 5.4 per cent in the last fiscal. Assuming a normal monsoon this year, CPI (consumer price index-based) inflation for the current year is projected at 4.5 per cent, with Q1 at 4.9 per cent, Q2 at 3.8 per cent, Q3 at 4.6 per cent, and Q4 at 4.5 per cent.
When the country has been at war, the Opposition has buried its differences with the government, points out Aditi Phadnis.
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Wholesale inflation in the country rose marginally to 0.53 per cent in March compared to 0.20 per cent in the preceding month due to increase in prices of vegetables, potato, onion and crude oil. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation was in the negative zone from April to October and had turned positive in November at 0.26 per cent. The inflation in March 2023 was 1.41 per cent.
The finance ministry expects a broad-based moderation in inflationary pressures on the back of an anticipated reduction in food prices as a result of the uptick in summer sowing. The retail inflation rate remained stubbornly clung to the 5 per cent mark in seven of the past eight months. "Core inflation is trending downwards, indicating a broad-based moderation in price pressures... Driven by strong domestic growth and benign global commodity prices, core inflation is declining continuously.
Increased production of pulses, oilseeds, and cereals will help boost domestic supplies and contribute to keeping inflation low in the coming months.
Retail inflation eased to an 11-month low of 4.83 per cent in April as prices of some kitchen items declined though overall food basket firmed up marginally, according to a government data released on Monday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based retail inflation was 4.85 per cent in March. It was 4.7 per cent in April 2023.
The wholesale inflation rose to a 13-month high of 1.26 per cent in April fuelled by rising prices of food articles, especially vegetables, amid expectations of RBI holding interest rates in the policy review next month. The wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation has been rising for two months in a row.
The combined market valuation of the top-ten most valued firms jumped by a whopping Rs 3,84,004.73 crore in the holiday-shortened last week, in-tandem with a smart rally in equities, with HDFC Bank and Bharti Airtel emerging as the biggest gainers. Last week, the BSE benchmark Sensex jumped 3,395.94 points or 4.51 per cent, and the NSE Nifty surged 1,023.1 points or 4.48 per cent.
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The fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector is likely to report muted results in the fourth quarter of 2024-25 (Q4FY25) due to weakness in urban consumption. The weakness may persist through the first half of 2025-26 (H1FY26).
'If you compare the data from 2017 and 2023 of the US imports from the world and China, you will see that the US was a complete loser in the trade war, and China was a complete gainer.'
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25 percent, marking the first reduction in five years. The central bank also projected GDP growth for fiscal year 2026 at 6.7 percent and inflation to come down to 4.2 percent in FY26 from 4.8 percent in FY25. The RBI said the global economic backdrop remains challenging but the Indian economy continues to remain strong and resilient.
Gold prices rose by Rs 70 to hit yet another record high of Rs 98,170 per 10 grams in the national capital on Thursday amid firm global demand, according to the All India Sarafa Association. On Wednesday, the precious metal of 99.9 per cent purity soared by Rs 1,650 to hit an all-time high of Rs 98,100 per 10 grams.
Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL) had a disappointing third quarter (Q3FY25) with flat volumes (after 7 per cent growth H1FY25). Price hikes will be required to maintain margins to offset the cost of palm oil inflation. However, some analysts see Q3 as an exception with strong volume growth expected to resume and it may be the fastest growing FMCG player in FY26.
India will be the world's third-largest economy by 2028 as it becomes the world's most sought-after consumer market and gains share in global output, driven by macro stability influenced policy and better infrastructure, Morgan Stanley said. From a $3.5 trillion economy in 2023, the Indian economy is projected to expand to $4.7 trillion in 2026, which will make it the fourth largest in the world behind the US, China and Germany.
'April 9 announcement of slapping a 125% tariff on Chinese goods has brought the focus back to China, making this new phase feel like a repeat of the original conflict.'
Wholesale inflation rate declined marginally to 0.2 per cent in February compared to 0.27 per cent in the preceding month despite a slight uptick in the food basket. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation was in the negative zone from April to October and had turned positive in November at 0.26 per cent. The inflation in February 2023 was 3.85 per cent.
According to an industry expert, companies such as Trident, Welspun India, Arvind, KPR Mill, Vardhman Textiles, Page Industries, Raymond, and Alok Industries stand to gain, as revenue from the US market accounts for 20-60 per cent of their earnings.
Trading sentiment in the equity market will largely be driven by domestic corporate quarterly earnings, any update related to US tariffs and foreign fund movements this week, analysts said. Investors would also focus on world market trends, movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude and the rupee-dollar trend for further cues, experts noted.
Geopolitical tensions, trade policy uncertainties, volatility in international commodity prices and financial market uncertainties pose considerable risks to India's economic growth in the coming year, the finance ministry cautioned on Wednesday. "Global trade continues to be affected by uncertainty in the policy environment... tariff-related developments in multiple countries have heightened trade-related risks, affecting investment and trade flows globally.
All six members of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) monetary policy committee (MPC) expressed caution over food inflation during the December review, while two external members warned about high real interest rates as headline inflation approaches its target of 4 per cent. The central bank continued to maintain the status quo on both the repo rate and the stance in the December monetary policy. India's retail inflation in November rose to 5.5 per cent - its fastest pace in three months - due to higher food prices.
The World Bank on Wednesday lowered India's growth forecast for the current fiscal by 4 percentage points to 6.3 per cent amid global economic weakness and policy uncertainty. In its previous estimate, the World Bank had projected India's growth at 6.7 per cent for the fiscal year 2025-26.
'We will be very, very proactive in providing whatever liquidity requirements are needed.'
The wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation eased in January to 0.27 per cent, mainly due to moderation in prices of food items. WPI inflation was at 0.73 per cent in December 2023. The WPI inflation was in the negative zone from April to October and had turned positive in November at 0.39 per cent.
'Militarily, it risks escalating tensions with Pakistan, potentially triggering conflict due to Pakistan's heavy reliance on the Indus.'
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All the BSE sectoral indices closed in the green. BSE Realty, Auto, Capital Goods and Industrials were lead gainers, jumping up to 5 per cent. IndusInd Bank was the lead gainer among Sensex shares, surging by 6.84 per cent. Tata Motors rallied 4.50 per cent. Larsen & Toubro, Axis Bank, Adani Ports, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and HCL Tech were also among the gainers. ITC and Hindustan Unilever were the only laggards.
'Go for a base cover of Rs 10 lakh and then buy a super top-up of Rs 90 lakh.'
The income-tax (I-T) department has issued showcause notices under Section 68 of the Income-Tax Act to several startups over funds routed through Singapore, seeking explanations for investments received over the past five years, people familiar with the development said. The department is questioning the source, identity, and creditworthiness of overseas investors in these transactions, they said.
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Moody's Ratings on Wednesday said India's economic growth will exceed 6.5 per cent in the next fiscal, up from 6.3 per cent this year, on higher government capex and consumption boost from tax cuts and interest rate reduction. Projecting a stable outlook for the banking sector, Moody's said although the operating environment of Indian banks will remain favourable in the next fiscal, their asset quality will deteriorate moderately after substantial improvements in recent years, with some stress in unsecured retail loans, microfinance loans and small business loans.
From the Sensex pack, Bajaj Finserv, Mahindra & Mahindra, Axis Bank, Bajaj Finance, Adani Ports, ICICI Bank, Zomato and UltraTech Cement were among the biggest gainers. However, ITC, Nestle, State Bank of India, Reliance Industries, Asian Paints and Tata Consultancy Services were among the laggards.
'Investors' decisions should reflect their financial goals, risk tolerance, and the amount of gold already present in their portfolio.'
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