While there was a sharp drop in footfalls in malls in H1FY21, there was reasonable recovery in H2. However, the second wave derailed the recovery.
The wait for India to become a $5-trillion economic powerhouse by 2024-25 (FY25) is going to take longer than what the finance ministry had originally intended, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The vision will instead be achieved in 2028-29 (FY29), reveals the IMF data, illustrating a four-year delay. Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran had in February said India would become a $5-trillion economy by 2025-26 or the following year, on the back of 8-9 per cent sustained growth rate in real gross domestic product (GDP). However, the IMF data conveys that the economy will be $4.92 trillion in FY28, clearly alluding to the fact that the target will be realised in FY29.
'We should look at is full year's growth rather than quarter numbers.'
Led by healthy growth in coal, crude oil, fertilisers, cement and electricity production, output of eight core industries grew to a 13-month high of 18.1 per cent in May this year, according to official data released on Thursday. The growth of core infrastructure sectors expanded by 16.4 per cent in the year-ago period and 9.3 per cent in April this year. The last high growth was recorded in April 2021 when it was 62.6 per cent.
In a double delight, retail inflation eased to a one-year low of 5.72 per cent - staying below the upper tolerance limit for two months in a row, while factory output rose sharply to 7.2 per cent on the back of healthy growth in manufacturing. The retail inflation numbers based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) will provide some room for the Reserve Bank to further moderate the quantum of hike in key interest rate or even press a pause button. The RBI has been on a rate hiking spree since May 2022 in its bid to tame inflation, having raised the repo rate by a cumulative 225 basis points (bps).
When the world was upended by the Covid-19 pandemic, metals got its shine back. In the last two years, infrastructure spending by major economies spurred demand, energy transition and intermittent supply disruptions fuelled a scorching rally in metals after a downturn during the first Covid wave. Now, Russia's war on Ukraine is ensuring that elevated prices stay the course.
Production of eight infrastructure sectors expanded by 3.8 per cent in December 2021 against a 0.4 per cent contraction in the same month last year on better show by coal, cement and refinery products, according to the official data released on Monday. Barring crude oil and steel, all sectors recorded positive growth in December 2021. The core sector industries had grown by 3.4 per cent in November 2021.
While weather forecasters remain divided on how the monsoons will play out in India over the next few months, analysts believe the news at the current juncture - at best - can trigger a knee-jerk reaction in the markets. They believe it is too early to say whether the sub-par monsoon on account of El Nino can seriously dent the market sentiment in the short-to-medium term. "These are just initial forecasts and we will have another round / status update from the weather forecasters a month down the line.
PowerGrid was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising around 4 per cent, followed by ITC, Bajaj Finance, Infosys, NTPC and Tech Mahindra. NSE Nifty advanced 117.15 points to 17,072.60.
The domestic basic telephone network is expected to grow at a slow rate over the next few years owing to increased competition from cellular wireless services
With the first quarter gross tax mop-up reaching Rs 5.6 lakh crore, Icra Ratings on Friday said the government is set to exceed the budgeted tax collection target of Rs 22.2 lakh crore for 2021-22, led by indirect taxes. The government has budgeted a modest 9.5 per cent growth in tax collections at Rs 22.2 lakh crore for FY22, over FY21 collections of Rs 20.2 lakh crore. However, despite the second wave of the pandemic, the April-June quarter tax collections rose to Rs 5.6 lakh crore, which is 39 per cent higher than Q1 of FY20.
Officials from State-run refiners contend that savings from purchase of Russian oil are used to offset a part of the losses in revenues from selling transport fuels and LPG at State-set rates.
India's merchandise exports in June rose by 16.78 per cent year-on-year to $37.94 billion while the trade deficit ballooned to a record $25.63 billion on account of a steep increase in gold and crude oil imports, according to the government's preliminary data released on Monday. The export growth in June moderated from 20.55 per cent in May and 48.34 per cent in June 2021. During the month under review, exports of engineering, pharmaceutical and plastic products recorded negative growth.
'An eerie similarity with 2019 inflation trajectory could now mean that the RBI and market inflation estimates could go awry.'
As on March 31, 2019, while the promoter group's stake, including individual promoter shareholders as well as group investment firms, stood at 42.71 per cent, it fell to 38.39 per cent on Tuesday.
Retail inflation inched up to 4.48 per cent in October due to an uptick in food prices, government data showed on Friday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation was at 4.35 per cent in September and 7.61 per cent in October 2020.
The production growth of eight infrastructure sectors slowed down to 4.3 per cent in March due to a decline in the output of coal and crude oil, though for the full 2021-22 fiscal, the core sector recorded a 10.4 per cent expansion, according to official data released on Friday. The eight infrastructure sectors - coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertiliser, steel, cement and electricity - had expanded by 6 per cent in February. During April-March 2021-22, the eight sectors grew by 10.4 per cent compared to a contraction of 6.4 per cent in 2020-21. The output of coal and crude oil contracted by 0.1 per cent and 3.4 per cent in March.
Exports in June rose by 23.52 per cent to $40.13 billion while the trade deficit ballooned to a record level of $26.18 billion mainly due to jump in gold and crude oil imports, the government data said on Thursday. The country's export growth in May was 20.55 per cent. Imports expanded by 57.55 per cent to $66.31 billion in June compared to the year-ago month, the data showed.
Of $90 billion remittances that India is expected to receive in 2022, only $27.4 billion has come in the first half of the year.
The rating was downgraded despite 25 per cent held by stronger partner Indian Hotels, which operates the company's seven properties in India.
'It has been an ongoing process, talking to the relevant ministries about eliminating leakages and curbing non-core expenditure in various schemes.'
Equity benchmark Sensex slumped over 1,000 points to sink below the 55,000-level on Friday, tracking deep losses in IT, finance, banking and energy stocks amid widespread selling in the global markets. A weak rupee, surging crude prices and relentless foreign capital outflows further weighed on sentiment, traders said. The 30-share BSE index ended 1,016.84 points or 1.84 per cent lower at 54,303.44.
Retail inflation softened to 6.71 per cent in July due to moderation in food prices but remained above the Reserve Bank's comfort level of 6 per cent for the seventh consecutive month. With retail inflation continuing to remain high despite a fall in prices of vegetables and edible oils, among other commodities in July, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) might go for another rate hike in September. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was at 7.01 per cent in June and 5.59 per cent in July 2021. It was above 7 per cent from April to June this fiscal.
There has been a "sharp decline" in collection efficiencies in retail asset pools across asset classes in May due to the second wave of the pandemic, with microlenders witnessing a dip of up to 20 per cent, a report said on Monday. "ICRA has observed a sharp decline in the collections of its rated securitisation transactions in April 2021 (i.e. May 2021 payouts), following the rise of COVID-19 cases and imposition of lockdowns/movement restrictions which has impacted the operations and collection activities of the NBFCs and HFCs," the report from domestic rating agency ICRA said. A major part of the country was undergoing localised lockdowns till May-end in the second wave, which saw new cases top 4.14 lakh and resulted in over 4,500 deaths daily at its peak.
As COVID-19 infections spike in the country resulting in restrictions in various states and impacting the fragile recovery, many economists are expecting RBI to delay the policy normalisation move, which is expected in the February review. The country has reported a single-day rise of 58,097 new Covid-19 cases as of Wednesday morning--the highest in around 199 days -- of which 2,135 are Omicron cases and later in the day, the first confirmed Omicron-related death has also been reported. Maharashtra recorded the maximum number of 653 Omicron cases followed by Delhi at 464, Kerala 185, Rajasthan 174, Gujarat 154 and Tamil Nadu 121 cases, taking the total tally of cases to 3,50,18,358.
Reliance Power (RPower) has defaulted on payment of interest worth Rs 1.17 crore to DBS Bank India and Rs 44 lakh to IDBI Bank. It failed to pay up interest on October 30, 2021. The firm, part of the Anil Ambani-promoted Reliance group, in filing with BSE, said it has term loans and working capital arrangements with three lenders - YES Bank, IDBI Bank and DBS. Its stock closed 1.41 per cent lower at Rs 12.6 per share on the BSE on December 1. About exposure of YES Bank, there is a 'standstill' applicable till December 26, 2021.
India always faces a Hobson's choice as far as feeding coal-fired generators goes - even if the government is reluctant to admit it. The country cannot do without shipping in the world's most polluting fuel from overseas. And it will continue to do so unless it decides to reduce demand by forcing citizens, farmers and businesses to live without electricity for part of the day, or use diesel generators to fire facilities.
Subdued prices of food items like vegetables pulled down retail inflation for the third month in a row to 5.3 per cent in August, within the RBI's comfort zone. While the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based retail inflation declined to 5.3 per cent in August from 6.69 per cent in the same month a year ago, food inflation dipped at a much faster pace to 3.11 per cent from 9.05 per cent in August 2020. The food inflation was also lower than 3.96 per cent in preceding month of July.
The impact of fiscal measures announced by the government to contain inflation will be seen in the next few months because of the base effect, reports Indivjal Dhasmana.
Yes Securities, the broking and investment arm of Yes Bank, on Wednesday said the Supreme Court directive on loan moratorium due to pandemic has brought the much needed clarity and there will not be any financial impact on the banks as the compound interest waiver is to be reimbursed by the government. On its verdict on a batch of pleas seeking moratorium extension beyond August 31, 2020, the apex court on Tuesday said it is a policy decision, refusing to interfere with the Centre's and RBI's decision to not extend the loan moratorium beyond the limit. However, it observed that the benefit of moratorium should go to all set of borrowers irrespective of the loan amount and asked to refund any amount collected as penal interest and compound interest during March-August 2020.
Retail inflation fell to a five-month low of 4.35 per cent in September from 7.27 per cent in the year-ago period as prices of vegetables and other items declined, according to government data released on Tuesday. The moderation in Consumer Price Index-based inflation is in line with the assessment of Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das who recently projected substantial softening of retail inflation. The CPI inflation was at 5.3 per cent in August and at 7.27 per cent in September 2020.
The Centre and states are likely to budget for higher market borrowings to the tune of Rs 2.3 lakh crore next fiscal even though the Union budget may peg a lower-than-expected fiscal deficit for the Centre at 5.8 per cent of GDP, says a report. Icra Ratings anticipates higher redemptions will lead to gross market borrowings of the Centre to rise to Rs 14.8 lakh crore and of the states to jump by Rs 1.6 lakh crore to Rs 9.6 lakh crore, taking the combined borrowings (of the Centre and the states) to Rs 24.4 lakh crore in FY2024, up by 2.3 lakh crore from FY23 combined. In FY23, the Centre's gross borrowings are budgeted at Rs 14.1 lakh crore and of the states at Rs 8 lakh crore, or a combined borrowing of Rs 22.1 lakh crore, according to the agency.
According to Icra, domestic passenger traffic declined by 1.1 per cent in March, overall traffic saw a de-growth of 0.1 per cent in the month as international aircraft movement dipped by 1 per cent while domestic aircraft movement was flat.
According to ICRA, even in a high-growth scenario, wherein the second half of FY20 sees the incremental bank credit rise to Rs 6.5-7 trn, there will still be a 40-45% year-on-year decline.
Automobile manufacturers, new and old, as well as ancillary suppliers are set to spend a combined Rs 70,630 crore over the next five years on either entering the electric vehicle segment or stepping up their presence in it. Data culled from announcements made by firms shows India, the world's fifth largest automobile market, is poised to receive one of the biggest capex pushes ever to fuel the transition from internal combustion engines to electric motors and batteries as part of a green drive. The EV push, egged on by the government's emphasis on electric mobility to meet its net zero targets, is expected to yield at least 25 electric vehicles - new ones as well as electrified versions of existing vehicles running on internal combustion engines.
Retail investors have put at least Rs 2,296 crore in listed companies facing proceedings under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC). A median such-company had 16,163 retail investors as shareholders many of whom apparently have bought a stake on the hope of making money if the firm revives. They own a fifth of the total stake in the companies under consideration. The analysis looked at 75 listed firms for whom shareholding data was available for March 2022.
While margins contracted by 30 basis points on y-o-y basis, they fell a sharper 120 basis points on a sequential basis to 16.8 per cent. Profitability was impacted adversely due to subdued demand, tepid realisations in commodity sectors, and negative operating leverage.
Around 241 companies were sent for liquidation under the IBC by various NCLT benches and in only 58 cases have the resolution plans been accepted
A looming global shortage of diesel in Europe presents India with more than one opportunity to profit from strong margins. A shortage of the fuel, a key contributor to inflation, has been exacerbated by the conflict in Ukraine, and western sanctions on Russian fuel supplies. The slowdown in natural gas supply means the West needs diesel to heat their homes this winter.
In twin blows to Indian economic revival, higher food prices drove retail inflation to a five-month high of 7.4 per cent while factory output fell for the first time in 18 months. The second consecutive month of rise in consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation will add to the pressure on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to again raise interest rates to tame high prices. Inflation has been above the targeted zone for the ninth month in a row and as per statute, the RBI will now have to explain to the government in writing why it failed to keep prices below 6 per cent.
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