Gold prices rallied for the third straight day and gained Rs 2,600 to hit a fresh lifetime high of Rs 1,26,600 per 10 grams in the national capital on Wednesday in line with strong global trends amid looming geopolitical uncertainties triggered by the prolonged shutdown of the US government.
Gold's glittering rally is expected to continue, with prices likely to climb towards $4,500 per ounce in overseas markets, supported by sustained global central bank purchases, persistent geopolitical tensions, and strong Asian demand, according to a report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. Silver, which has outperformed gold in terms of returns so far this year, is projected to climb to around $75 per ounce, aided by robust industrial consumption and a widening supply deficit, the report said.
Gold prices rose by Rs 70 to hit yet another record high of Rs 98,170 per 10 grams in the national capital on Thursday amid firm global demand, according to the All India Sarafa Association. On Wednesday, the precious metal of 99.9 per cent purity soared by Rs 1,650 to hit an all-time high of Rs 98,100 per 10 grams.
A lower risk appetite among investors has driven gold, traditionally a safe-haven asset, to record highs so far this year. Fuelled by geopolitical tensions in West Asia, robust demand from central banks - particularly in Asia - and US President Donald Trump's tariff volleys, spot gold touched an all-time high of $2,956 per ounce on February 24 in the international markets.
Gold price outlook 2025: Gold prices that have climbed over 30 per cent so far in 2024 to Rs 7,300 per gram in the Indian markets (up 28 per cent in dollar terms till November-end), are set for their best calendar year performance in 10 years, suggests a recent report by World Gold Council (WGC). However, this stellar run, analysts believe, may not carry through till the end of 2025 in the backdrop of economic and geopolitical headwinds.
Goldman Sachs expects gold to reach $3,150 per ounce in the international market by December 2025, up around 19.1 per cent from its current level of $2,645, according to a recent report in Business Standard. Domestically, gold is trading at Rs 76,018 per 10 grams after delivering a remarkable 21.9 per cent return in the past year.
The Reserve Bank of India has brought 100 metric tonnes of gold reserve from the UK to India as there is enough domestic storage capacity, and nothing more should be read into it, Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Friday. The RBI moved 100 metric tonnes of its gold stored in the UK to domestic vaults in FY24.
Gold seems to be losing its glitter in India due to a rise in prices. Demand in Q2CY24 was 149.7 tonnes - a 5 per cent drop compared to 158.1 tonnes in the same period last year, according to a report by the World Gold Council (WGC). Demand by value in April-June 2024 stood at Rs 93,850 crore, up by 14 per cent compared to Rs 82,530 crore in the same period last year.
India's gold imports, which have a bearing on the country's current account deficit (CAD), increased 26.7 per cent to $35.95 billion during the April-December of this fiscal due to healthy demand, according to government data. The imports stood at $28.4 billion during the same period a year ago. In December 2023, imports of the precious metal jumped by 156.5 per cent to $3 billion, as per the data released by the commerce ministry.
Gold prices have been on an uptrend in the last few months, rising nearly 28 per cent to $2387 per ounce now. This rise in gold price, according to Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, is attributed to the demand from China amid lack of investor euphoria as regards the yellow metal. "Recent developments show a distinct lack of investor euphoria as regards gold, the question remains what is driving the current rally.
Gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) witnessed a net outflow of Rs 199 crore in January, making it the third monthly withdrawal in a row, with investors preferring equities over other segments on buoyant record SIP flow. This was in comparison to a net outflow of Rs 273 crore registered in the segment in December and Rs 195 crore in November. Prior to that, Gold ETFs attracted Rs 147 crore in October, data with Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi) showed.
Gold burnished its image as the go-to asset class during turbulent times. However, investors seemed to have missed the bus. Net inflows into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) plunged to a four-year low of Rs 653 crore in 2022-23 (FY23), even as gold emerged as the top-performing asset class.
Gold prices have surged nearly 18 per cent, so far, in the calendar year 2022 (CY22) to around $2,050 per ounce against the backdrop of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and there is more headroom over the next few months, believe analysts at Goldman Sachs who expect the yellow metal to become costlier by another 25 per cent to $2,500 an ounce by the year-end. Goldman Sachs, earlier, had raised its 12-month gold price forecast to $2,150 per ounce considering that an impending US growth slowdown would lead to increased concerns of a US recession and incentivise 300 tonnes of inflows into gold ETFs. At the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine tensions, Goldman Sachs had suggested the resultant rally in commodities could deteriorate the developed market (DM) growth-inflation mix, increase concerns of a American recession, and push gold ETF inflows to 600 tonnes and, in turn, lift gold prices to $2,350 an ounce in 12 months.
Retail investment demand for gold bars and coins as well as central bank purchases pushed the global gold demand by 28 per cent to 1,181.5 tonnes in the September quarter, according to the World Gold Council report. The total global demand stood at 921.9 tonnes during the July-September quarter of 2021, the World Gold Council's 'Gold Demand Trends Q3 2022' showed on Tuesday. Investment was down 47 per cent year-on-year as gold backed Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) investors responded to a challenging combination of higher interest rates and a strong US dollar with significant outflows of 227 tonnes.
Gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) witnessed a net outflow of Rs 248 crore in February, making it the second consecutive month of withdrawals as investors preferred equities over other segments on record SIP flows. Net outflows from the gold ETFs were at Rs 452 crore in the month of January. Prior to that, the asset class had seen a net investment of Rs 313 crore, according to the data of Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi). Despite the outflows, the category witnessed an increase in net assets under management (AUM) of gold ETFs to Rs 18,727 crore at the end of February from Rs 17,839 crore in January-end.
The coin is pure gold, weighs about 100 kilogram and has a face value of $1 million (Rs 6.5 crore).
As the country moves towards creating a spot gold exchange, markets regulator Sebi's whole time member G Mahalingam on Wednesday suggested routing all the imports of the precious metal through the exchange ecosystem in the future. Such a "funnelling" would ensure that gold monetisation takes place right at the source as the metal enters the country, he said while addressing a conference organised by industry lobby Ficci. However, he also noted that the issue has not been dealt with in the papers floated by Sebi.
Geopolitical tensions in different parts of the globe and slowdown in global economy led investors to opt for safe-haven like gold over the last one year.
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A WGC survey says that there is no dearth of gold demand, but there is lack of trust among prospective gold buyers, not only in India but globally.
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Uncertainties like the bankruptcies bill, rising non-performing accounts at banks and political uncertainty are expected to drive gold demand higher in India.
Import bill for September rises to $3.5-4 billion as traders and retailers stock up the precious metal.
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