While weather forecasters remain divided on how the monsoons will play out in India over the next few months, analysts believe the news at the current juncture - at best - can trigger a knee-jerk reaction in the markets. They believe it is too early to say whether the sub-par monsoon on account of El Nino can seriously dent the market sentiment in the short-to-medium term. "These are just initial forecasts and we will have another round / status update from the weather forecasters a month down the line.
Irregular rainfall and a pick-up in commodity costs are expected to weigh on the demand and margins of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies. Most companies reported a sharp expansion in gross margins in the April-June quarter (first quarter, or Q1) of 2023-24 (FY24), given the lower prices of key raw materials and earlier price hikes. Furthermore, there were expectations that cost savings being passed on could reflect in volume growth going forward. However, these hopes could be dashed if demand recovery, especially in the rural segment, stalls, and gains on the raw material front start to recede.
The stocks of Mumbai-based real estate companies have been hitting lifetime highs on expectations that launches, steady demand, and price increases in the largest real estate market in the country would boost their financials. Macrotech Developers (Lodha) and Oberoi Realty hit their all-time highs last week, while Godrej Properties came close to its 52-week high last month before witnessing a sharp correction.
Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies anticipate sustained volume pressures in the January-March quarter (Q4) coupled with sluggish rural growth during the period. Brokerages estimate top-line growth to be in low single digits in the quarter. Also, the late onset of winter had an impact on demand for winter products which range from moisturisers to hot beverages.
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"India will be home to a fifth of humanity, its economy 16 times bigger than today, and one of the world's largest consumer markets. India will be a world better in many areas"
Big, listed FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods) companies such as Hindustan Unilever, ITC, Nestl, and Britannia have been top-performing stocks on the bourses in recent weeks. The Nifty FMCG index, which tracks the share prices of the country's top 15 listed FMCG companies, is up 1.9 per cent month-to-date in May compared to a 2.4 per cent decline in the benchmark Nifty 50 in the period.
Godrej Consumer Products has recorded a 45 per cent jump in net profit to Rs 26.02 crore (Rs 260 billion) for the third quarter ended December 31, 2004 as compared to Rs 17.94 crore (Rs 179 billion) for the quarter ended December 31, 2003.
The Bombay high court on Thursday said the Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train project is of 'national importance and in public interest', and dismissed a petition filed by Godrej & Boyce company challenging the acquisition proceedings initiated by the Maharashtra government and the NHSRCL in suburban Vikhroli for the project.
The past 18 months have seen a resurgence in the real estate industry, with developers regaining the ground lost to the Covid-19 pandemic. But it is once again adding inventory at a pace faster than sales. The industry's inventory rose by 28 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in H1FY24, com-pared to a 25.5 per cent year-on-year increase in net sales during the same period.
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Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies has rejigged his equity portfolios. In his Asia ex-Japan long-only portfolio, he has added Axis Bank (5 per cent weightage) and increased holding in Larsen & Toubro (L&T) by one percentage point. This, Wood said, will be paid for by removing the investment in ICICI Lombard General Insurance and reducing the investments in HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries (RIL) by one percentage point each.
'What happens in the real estate market is that once the prices go up it goes on to stay at that level.' 'It might not increase and at the same time the prices will not come down too.'
Renewed inflationary pressures, led by a spike in prices of vegetables and cereals, have cast a spell on the equity markets in the past month. The BSE Sensex and Nifty50 have declined up to 2 per cent each during the period, clipping the 13 per cent rally from the March lows, shows data from ACE Equity. Investors typically consider shares of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies as defensive bets, putting their weight behind them in a falling market.
CLSA has downgraded select real estate stocks and expects most counters from this sector to consolidate in the months ahead after the sharp run seen in them in the last few months. Most positive factors in terms of a pick-up in housing demand and office space absorption, it said, are already priced in. "We expect housing industry demand to grow around 12 per cent in 2024 and for large developers to outpace industry to grow at 15 - 20 per cent.
The slowdown in private consumption in the economy is taking a toll on the growth of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG). The net sales growth of listed FMCG companies hit a 14-quarter low of 2.5 per cent in October-December 2023 (Q3FY24). This is the lowest revenue growth for the industry since the June 2020 quarter, when the FMCG firms in the Business Standard sample had reported a 13.2 per cent Y-o-Y decline in combined net sales owing to the lockdown.
Consumer goods firms and auto companies are witnessing an upturn in rural demand, which had been lagging for most of FY24. Expectations of a bumper rabi crop harvest have helped turn the tide. The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) Monetary Policy Committee kept the repo rate unchanged last week, noting that as rural demand catches up, consumption is expected to support economic growth in 2024-25.
Companies manufacturing fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) continue to see rural stress sustain and it continues to trail urban demand. At the Confederation of Indian Industry's FMCG summit, managements of various companies pointed out urban demand continued to grow while rural demand remained under pressure because incomes were under stress in rural areas. "Due to rural stress, volumes continue to remain an issue for the industry and we are yet to see any revival in demand," Sudhir Sitapati, managing director (MD) and chief executive officer (CEO) at Godrej Consumer Products
In a recent note, the global brokerage firm said India now commands a weight of 19 per cent in the above-mentioned portfolio as compared to 18.2 per cent in September 2023. India, it said, is a large liquid market and remains a counter-weight to North Asia if a slowdown in the West occurs and China's recovery disappoints.
Unfortunately, in India, infrastructure projects are lost in a miasma of political and personal vanity, observes Shyam G Menon.
'Due to rural stress, volumes continue to remain an issue for the industry, and we are yet to see any revival in demand.'
Fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies are expected to see muted topline growth, with uneven spread of the monsoon impacting demand. Rural demand recovery, too, remains elusive in the July-September quarter. Brokerages expect volumes to remain steady in the quarter on a sequential basis.
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Hindustan Unilever (HUL), one of the country's largest fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) players, is learnt to have cut prices of its leading soaps and detergents this month by 2-19 per cent, according to the company's distributors. The cuts come after consistent price increases by the company as well as its peers, following the sharp rise in raw material prices in the past several months. It is only recently that prices of raw materials have started to correct from peak levels in the June quarter.
Global funds, according to Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, are now beginning to pay more attention to India with the market now offering 30 companies with a market capitalisation over $25 billion.
Realty major DLF's chairman Rajiv Singh remains the wealthiest Indian real estate entrepreneur with a wealth of Rs 59,030 crore, according to GROHE-HURUN India. With a wealth of Rs 42,270 crore, Mangal Prabhat Lodha and his family of Mumbai-based Macrotech Developers (Lodha Group) is at the second position. Arjun Menda & family of Bengaluru-based RMZ Corp debuted at the third position on the list, with a wealth of Rs 37,000 crore.
The sharp jump in shares of Kalyan Jewellers (Kalyan) has surprised many on the Street; however, analysts believe more steam could be left in the stock as the Thrissur-based gold retailer pivots to a new asset-light network expansion model. Kalyan's stock has surged 62 per cent in the past month, even as the S&P BSE SmallCap Index has gained just 5 per cent. In its latest business update, the company said its consolidated sales grew more than consensus expectations at 31 per cent year-on-year, led by strong domestic sales regardless of the volatility in gold prices.
Mukesh Ambani, the patriarch of Reliance Industries (RIL), and Gautam Adani, the chairman of Adani Group of companies, have secured the top positions on the Fortune India Rich List, created in partnership with Waterfield Advisors, with respective wealth of $99.7 billion and $63.71 billion. With a wealth of $34.6 billion, the Mistry family of Shapoorji Pallonji Group holds the third position on the list, while the Poonawalla family, owners of vaccine maker Serum Institute, with a wealth of $32.9 billion, stands fourth. Stockbroker and founder of D-Mart-branded grocery stores, Radhakishan Damani, claims the fifth spot on the India Rich List with a wealth of $23.4 billion
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The festival season has already begun in the west and south of India with Ganesh Chaturthi and Onam, respectively, and consumer companies are witnessing a pick-up in sales compared to pre-Covid levels. Retailers, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) and consumer durables companies expect their sales to grow in double digits this festival season compared to pre-pandemic times, as there are no curbs on movement now. Adani Wilmar expects sales volume to be higher by 15-20 per cent as rural India has largely witnessed good monsoon rains, and employment has picked up in urban areas.
A number of private companies have contributed to the development of ISRO's Chandrayaan-3 spacecraft which successfully landed near the south pole of the Moon on Wednesday evening.
The recent equity market weakness has sobered up investor mood, but the coming festive season is keeping analysts upbeat on stocks related to the consumption basket. Among the lot, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), retail, and consumer electronics segments are expected to do well over the next few months, and investors should thus selectively take bets in these pockets, analysts suggest. "We expect good volume growth for the FMCG sector during the festive season with some improvement in rural demand.
The net debt of top eight realty firms fell 43 per cent to Rs 23,000 crore last fiscal, from around Rs 40,000 crore in 2019-20, as their cash flow improved on strong housing sales, according to Anarock. Real estate consultant Anarock noted that the unfettered demand for housing across the country has enabled the country's leading large and listed developers to reduce their debt. Anarock analysed financial performances of the top eight developers engaged in the development of residential real estate.
It is thanks to the policy of liberalisation conceived by Manmohan Singh and enforced by P V Narasimha that the Indian economy has now become the world's 5th largest economy by nominal GDP, asserts Dr Sudhir Bisht.
Stocks of alcoholic beverage makers have corrected over the last few trading sessions on worries that taxes, competition and costs will hurt sales and profitability. The recent trigger for the decline is Karnataka, which accounts for 15 per cent of overall liquor consumption, increasing duties. The state increased by 20 per cent the additional excise duty on Indian-made foreign liquor (IMFL) on all slabs.
Consumer durable companies will again start to face a supply issue of components as China extends lockdown due to its zero Covid strategy. This will impact the flow of finished products into the Indian market, unlike last year, this impact will be felt post Diwali. While supply chain issues have been a problem since the start of the pandemic, China's zero Covid strategy has also posed another risk for consumer durable companies.
Pulses are most vulnerable to pests and diseases if the monsoon remains patchy for the rest of the season.
It may be a little early to cheer the recovery in the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) space as a deceleration in discretionary demand, after the festival season, may offset fragile rural recovery, analysts have cautioned. "The overall demand environment for staples remains muted, while discretionary demand trends have seen some deceleration after the festival season. "We believe margins in staples have bottomed out, but we expect only a gradual uptick with the ongoing softening in raw material prices.
