On June 26, for the likes of me, the music died. Any impression of potential change held forth by the outcome of the 2024 general election, was vaporised, reveals Shyam G Menon.
Quarterly earnings, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors will drive stock markets in this holiday-shortened week, analysts said. It will be a trading holiday on January 22, with the Maharashtra government announcing a holiday in connection with the consecration of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya. Equity markets would also remain closed on Friday for Republic Day.
The downward surprise in Q2 stemmed from a stronger-than-anticipated drag from gross fixed capital formation and marginal weakness in private final consumption expenditure. In Q3, projection errors emanated mainly from a steep unanticipated contraction in gross fixed capital formation, which was the deepest in the new series of GDP.
The revision of the consumer price index and GDP base years from 2011-12 and 2012, respectively, were dependent on the outcomes of the consumer expenditure survey of 2017-18 that the government decided to junk recently.
BSE-listed companies' market capitalisation reached Rs 197.7 trillion on January 21, against India's nominal GDP of Rs 190 trillion during 12 months ended December 2020.
She also holds the distinction of delivering the longest budget speech at two hours and forty minutes in 2020.
'The Indian economy is expected to grow in terms of per capita income and GDP, and with that, the luxury segment becomes more relevant.'
A ramp-up in COVID-19 vaccination, healthy advance estimates of kharif (summer) crop and faster government spending were the factors which led to the revision, the agency said in a statement. It can be noted that after the 7.3 per cent contraction in 2020-21, there were expectations of a higher growth number in 2021-22.
India's services sector witnessed one of the strongest growth rates in over 13-and-a-half years in March on the back of strong demand that spurred sales and business activity, a monthly survey said on Thursday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services Business Activity Index rose from 60.6 in February to 61.2 in March, one of the strongest expansions in total sales and business activity in close to 14 years. In the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) parlance, a print above 50 means expansion, while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
The truth can no longer be hidden despite 'headline management' by the ruling dispensation, the opposition party said.
In the manufacturing sector, output is expected to decline by about 70 per cent as only food-processing, and drugs and pharma industries are allowed to operate while other segments, such as engineering and metals, have shut operations.
'Private General insurers are poised to grow at 17 per cent - 18 per cent over the next 5 to 7 years and we will grow faster.'
To enable widen the fiscal deficit beyond the permissible limit under the present legislation, the government may have to propose amendment to the FRBM Act in the Finance Bill.
Following are comments from economists at leading financial institutions, banks and rating agencies on the interim Budget:
'What happens in the real estate market is that once the prices go up it goes on to stay at that level.' 'It might not increase and at the same time the prices will not come down too.'
'Historically, the markets tend to perform well during election years as governments aim to increase spending and call attention to growth.'
The country's per capita income is likely to grow by close to 70 per cent to $4,000 by fiscal 2030 from $2,450 in fiscal 2023, helping it become a middle-income economy with $6-trillion GDP, more than half of which will be coming in from household consumption, says a research report. Per capita income/GDP has risen from $460 in fiscal 2001 to $1,413 in fiscal 2011 and further to $2,150 in fiscal 2021. The biggest growth driver will be external trade which may nearly double to $2.1 trillion by 2030 from $1.2 trillion in fiscal 2023 when the GDP printed in at $3.5 trillion, Standard Chartered Bank said in a weekend report which assumes a 10 per cent nominal GDP growth annually from now on.
Yes Bank was the top loser in the Sensex pack, shedding 2.50 per cent, followed by HUL that fell 2.37 per cent, M&M 2.12 per cent, SBI 2.03 per cent, Tata Motors 2.03 per cent and Vedanta 1.97 per cent.
The new numbers show India's economic growth rate averaged 6.7 per cent during the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance regime as compared to 7.3 per cent under the present government. Previous numbers had put the average growth rate during the 10-year UPA rule at 7.75 per cent.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday identified agriculture, education and health as three sectors where he believes technology can play a big role, and highlighted efforts of his government.
Moody's Investors Service on Friday projected India's growth at zero per cent for the current fiscal and said the negative outlook on sovereign rating reflects increasing risks that GDP growth will remain significantly lower than in the past. The outlook also partly shows weaker policy effectiveness to address economic and institutional issues, it noted in the update to its November 2019 rating forecast.
'The long-term impact of elections is minimal.'
Alternative Investment Funds (AIFs) with a lock-in period performed better than the ones that allow investors to withdraw capital at any time. Close-ended schemes had a median return of 5.62 per cent in December, according to data from industry tracker PMSBazaar. The median returns for open-ended schemes were 3.91 per cent
Global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would largely dictate terms in the equity markets this week amid a lack of major domestic triggers, analysts said. Markets may face near-term consolidation due to elevated valuations, they noted. "While the previous week was predominantly shaped by developments in the US Federal Reserve policy, attention will now shift to the Bank of Japan's policy decision on December 19," Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd, said.
He said the 'toxic combination of deep distrust, pervasive fear and a sense of hopelessness in our society' is stifling economic activity and growth.
India is not reaping the benefits of demographic dividends, former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan said on Tuesday, emphasising that there is a need to focus on improving the human capital and enhancing their skill sets. "I think we are in the midst of it (demographic dividend), but the problem is we are not reaping the benefits," Rajan said at a conference on "Making India an Advanced Economy by 2047: What Will it Take" at the George Washington University in Washington DC. "That's why I said 6 per cent growth.
While India should be concerned about disparities, the fact is that whereas three decades ago about half the people had incomes greater than $2.15 a day, today seven out of eight do, notes T N Ninan.
India's corporate sector, including public sector enterprises (PSEs), continues to go slow on investments and capital expenditure (capex). According to data from Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL), corporate investments declined for the second consecutive quarter in the April-June period (first quarter, or Q1) of 2023-24 (FY24). After a contraction of 0.5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in the 2022-23 (FY23) January-March quarter, corporate investments likely fell 6.2 per cent Y-o-Y in Q1FY24, write Nikhil Gupta and Tanisha Ladhaa of MOFSL in their recent report on corporate investments.
Sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals and automobiles can see supply disruptions in value chain, which may lead to a derailment of the domestic economic growth.
India's GDP may turn positive at 1.3 per cent in the third quarter of 2020-21, having witnessed contraction in the previous two quarters due to the coronavirus pandemic, as the number of cases is falling and public spending has started rising, according to a report. The government will release the GDP numbers for the October-December quarter of the current fiscal on Friday. Projecting that the gross domestic product (GDP) may have returned to the black in the last quarter of the calendar year 2020, DBS Bank in the report said the full-year growth in real terms may be at a negative 6.8 per cent.
'We expect a pick-up in the second half of the current fiscal. But before that, data is likely to show a further slowdown. The second quarter print is likely to be worse than the first quarter,' said a senior official.
A careful reading of the national income accounts suggests that after a strong recovery from the pandemic, there has been a significant ebbing of dynamism over the last three quarters to more modest levels recently, note Arvind Subramanian and Josh Felman.
Trends in the global markets, trading activity of foreign investors and announcement of domestic macroeconomic data are the major factors that would drive investors' sentiment in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Benchmark indices had a record-breaking rally in the past week driven by impressive GDP data. Equity markets would remain closed on Friday for Mahashivratri.
Sitharaman's Budget missed deficit target for the third year in a row, pushing shortfall to 3.8 per cent of GDP in the current fiscal as compared to 3.3 per cent previously planned.
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