While most experts suggest the government loosen its purse strings and not worry about the fiscal deficit in a pandemic impacted year, it will be a tightrope walk for the government to increase spending without going overboard.
At risk of entrenched rough times are sectors like hospitality and those with discretionary spends.
These products are extremely transparent and are the lowest charged products in the insurance space. The policyholder has to only pay the fund management charge. Hence, from the cost side, ULIPs are very competitive.
Indian economy is likely to rebound with an 8.9 per cent growth in the fiscal year beginning April 2021 after economic activity showed significant improvement in the last quarter, IHS Markit said on Friday. The National Statistical Organisation (NSO) on Thursday predicted that the economy will contract 7.7 per cent in the current financial year ending in March, the worst performance in four decades.
The revenue for Q1 FY21 came in at Rs 23,939 crore, up 15.4 per cent from year-ago period.
However, both developers as well as analysts are hopeful that these business metrics will pick up once activity resumes.
With just a month left in this financial year, electric two-wheeler sales, so far, are at just 62 per cent of the ambitious target of 1 million units set for 2022-23 by the NITI Aayog. According to VAHAN data, compiled by the Society of Manufacturers of Electric Vehicles (SMEV), 620,006 units of electric two-wheelers were sold across the country in FY23 until February 21. Though the industry may miss the 1-million target, sales in FY23 are already up 146 per cent from 249,621 units sold in FY22.
Check out some of the stocks that will react on the basis of their numbers in the near term.
When the world was upended by the Covid-19 pandemic, metals got its shine back. In the last two years, infrastructure spending by major economies spurred demand, energy transition and intermittent supply disruptions fuelled a scorching rally in metals after a downturn during the first Covid wave. Now, Russia's war on Ukraine is ensuring that elevated prices stay the course.
The Budget, to be presented on February 1, is likely to be less worried about fiscal deficit and will be focused more on nursing the fragile growth, according to a Wall Street brokerage report. Bank of America Securities India expects the budget to peg "fiscal deficit at a high 5 per cent of GDP for FY22 and 7.2 per cent for FY21, as it is likely to step up capex, recap public sector banks, push asset sales to break government monopolies, offer sops for real estate, tax cuts for lower income groups and creation of a bad bank". Its house economists expect these spends to be funded by debt and partly by imposing a cess on high income groups and also by some non-fiscal measures like tapping the central bank's revaluation reserves and bank recapitalisation and infra bonds.
A weak economy coupled with rising Covid-19 cases and inflation that is above RBI's comfort zone, geopolitical developments, and upcoming India Inc's second quarter results for FY21 could impact sentiment, analysts say.
Airlines operated at much lower capacity of about 27% this July compared to July 2019 level, but there was a marginal rise over the 25% capacity achieved in June 2020.
It won't be easy for the banking sector to better its performance every quarter, predicts Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Fitch expected economic activity to contract by 5 per cent in FY21 due to the strict lockdown measures imposed since March 25, before rebounding by 9.5 per cent in FY22.
In a rare face off, captains of the auto industry have hit out at the government for not walking the talk. At an industry event in the capital on Wednesday, R C Bhargava, chairman of India's largest carmaker Maruti Suzuki, and Venu Srinivasan, chairman of TVS Motor, questioned the government's intent to support the auto sector. Revenue secretary Tarun Bajaj sat in the audience listening, before his turn came to counter them.
Earlier this year, the Union Cabinet gave the management of state-run companies the freedom to decide on divesting their subsidiaries. However, the very next day a meeting was held at the top level of the Government of India, for the presentation of proposals for more autonomy for state-run companies. Interestingly, no chiefs of any of these companies were invited. It is a problem that will stare the government in the face with the state-owned banks too, as talks have again begun for inviting strategic investments in these companies.
Online travel portals and airlines say the demand from companies is being led by essential services sectors like pharmaceutical, oil and gas, and power.
Sunil Bhaskaran, AirAsia India's chief executive officer (CEO) and managing director (MD), is the front-runner to head the low-cost carrier that will take birth after the merger of Air India Express and AirAsia India, sources said. In a show of confidence, the airline's board extended Bhaskaran's tenure by three years -- until March 2025 -- in a meeting held earlier this year, according to the documents reviewed by Business Standard. Moreover, AirAsia India's board of directors has increased Bhaskaran's salary twice in 2022 -- first in January by 5 per cent and then in June by 7 per cent, the documents showed.
At all India level, per capita income will decline by 5.4 per cent in FY21 to Rs 1.43 lakh, the report said.
Indian companies' market capitalization has grown at the fastest pace last year among major economies despite contraction in GDP, economists from SBI said, flagging the risks to financial stability it poses. Further, retail investors have shown higher interest in markets and their numbers have increased by 1.42 crore in FY21 and another 44 lakh in April and May, they said in a note, wondering if this will be a lasting behavioural change or is transitory. The economists at the country's largest lender attributed the growth in equity markets to lower returns on other financial instruments amid a low rates regime, increase in global liquidity, and even a tendency to spend more time at home because of mobility restrictions which led many to trade more.
The negative balance is largely on account of pending material cost for the work done under the programme during the year and even earlier.
Ailing telecom operator Vodafone Idea has flagged the industry's "unsustainable financial duress" in its latest annual report and hoped that the government would provide the necessary support to address "all structural issues" faced by the sector. In the chairman's letter to shareholders, Himanshu Kapania cited persistent challenges in the operating environment, amid "unsustainable pricing" and "hyper-competition" during FY21. Kapania expressed hope that government will support efforts to generate reasonable returns on massive investments.
Its revenue grew 8.5 per cent to Rs 23,665 crore in the quarter under review from Rs 21,803 crore in the corresponding period last fiscal.
Led by Trent, which hit its lifetime-high recently, apparel retailers have gained between 10 per cent and 36 per cent over the past three weeks. Given the network of physical stores, these stocks shall be major beneficiaries of the unlock theme, with most states doing away with Covid restrictions. Amid improving footfall, analysts expect the sector to post double-digit growth in FY23.
The government's food subsidy in the ongoing fiscal year is expected to be a little less than Rs 4 trillion.
With the increased death rate in the ongoing second wave of Covid-19, domestic cement companies are in no better condition than they were in the April-June quarter of FY21 when the country faced nationwide lockdown. "This wave has had high death rate which has impacted the business. "We are in no better situation than last (year) April. "Deaths of drivers, dealers, contractors and also employees have hit the industry really very hard since April (FY22)," M Ravinder Reddy, director of Bharathi Cements said.
The cost of debt-funds for the states has touched the highest level so far this fiscal with the weighted average cut-off crossing the 7.16 percentage points at the latest auctions, up 11 bps over the past week, reflecting the hardening yields even for the government securities. The hardening of the rates at the first auction of the quarter comes in the wake of the expected large supply of debt from the states, as indicated for Q4 at Rs 3.2 lakh crore, up by Rs 10,000 crore. Nine states on Tuesday raised Rs 18,900 crore at the latest auction of state development loans.
By any economic theory or doctrine, this is no Budget that supports economic recovery, whether through supporting aggregate demand, or through expansionary stimulus, declares Rathin Roy.
The COVID-19 pandemic has not only affected outpatient services, but also led to deferment of elective surgeries, and resulted in the loss of medical tourism, all of which would hit the FY21 financials.
As macroeconomic numbers continue to disappoint, reaching pre-Covid level is unlikely in FY21.
The government has already crossed the fiscal deficit at 132 per cent of the estimate as of December end.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday said the resurgence of COVID-19 infections may delay India's economic recovery, but won't derail it, as it kept the sovereign rating unchanged at 'BBB-' with a negative outlook. It projected a 12.8 per cent recovery in GDP in the fiscal year ending March 2022 (FY22), moderating to 5.8 per cent in FY23, from an estimated contraction of 7.5 per cent in 2020-21. Fitch had in June last year revised outlook for India to 'negative' from 'stable' on grounds that the coronavirus pandemic had significantly weakened the country's growth outlook and exposed the challenges associated with a high public debt burden.
Headline inflation will come down under the 6 per cent mark in July itself but will stay at an elevated level of over 5 per cent for some time, Chief Economic Advisor K V Subramanian said on Thursday. Such an outcome will get the price rise back into the upper-end of the target band given to RBI, he said, adding that consumer price inflation had breached the mark for three consecutive quarters last fiscal because of supply side issues like challenges in movement of goods. "With reasonable probability, I expect this month the (inflation) print to come less than 6 per cent," Subramanian told a conference organised by industry lobby Ficci. Right after data for May showing inflation at 6.4 per cent had come out, Subramanian said he had predicted it will cool down in internal meetings and also during "deliberations with the regulator".
Even as regulatory focus has zeroed in on foreign e-commerce giant Amazon, a domestic retail giant has been created almost below the radar in Reliance Retail (RR), one of the most crucial businesses for the group's future. From doorstep delivery of groceries, apparels to branded jewellery, medicines, toys, furniture to high street retailing, RR's presence in the world's fourth largest consumer market is just one part of the story.
The Indian economy will suffer lasting damage from the coronavirus crisis and after an initial strong rebound in FY22 (fiscal year ending March 2022) growth will slow to around 6.5 per cent a year over FY23-FY26, Fitch Ratings said on Thursday. "A combination of supply-side scarring and demand-side constraints - such as the weak state of the financial sector - will keep the level of GDP well below its pre-pandemic path," it said in commentary on the Indian economy. Fitch said India's coronavirus-induced recession has been among the most severe in the world, amid a stringent lockdown and limited direct fiscal support.
Mutual funds (MFs) are set to be net sellers of Indian equities for the first time in the past seven financial years, having sold stocks worth about Rs 1.27 trillion so far in 2020-21 (FY21), making it the highest net sales on record in a financial year. MFs had been net buyers in the previous six financial years, including purchases of over Rs 1.41 trillion in FY18, Rs 88,152 crore in FY19, and Rs 91,814 crore in FY20. The last time they offloaded Indian equities was in FY14, when they net sold stocks worth Rs 21,159 crore. In contrast, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have ramped up buying in FY21, purchasing more than Rs 2.6 trillion worth of shares.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday announced allocation of whopping Rs 48,000 crore for completion of 80 lakh houses under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY), both rural and urban, during the next fiscal year. In her budget speech, the minister said: "In 2022-23, 80 lakh houses will be completed for the identified eligible beneficiaries of PM Awas Yojana, both rural and urban. Rs 48,000 crore is allocated for this purpose." The Centre would work with states for reduction of time required for all land and construction related approvals, for promoting affordable housing for middle-class and Economically Weaker Sections (EWS) in urban areas, she said.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday tabled the Economic Survey 2021-22 along with Statistical Appendix in the Lok Sabha on the first day of the Budget session of Parliament. Later, the Lok Sabha was adjourned till tomorrow. The Economic Survey will now be tabled in the Upper House. The Budget Session of the parliament commenced on January 31 with President Ram Nath Kovind's address. The first part of the Budget session of Parliament will be held from January 31 to February 11 and the second part of the Budget session will take place from March 14 to April 8.
Officials were surprised at how quickly smugglers appraised the Covid situation to recruit jobless migrant workers to ship gold.
We will find it difficult to exceed an average of 5 per cent growth in the medium term, warns Shankar Acharya, the former chief economic adviser.
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