Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty gave up early gains to close lower for a fourth straight session on Thursday due to selling in IT and banking shares amid weak global equities. The 30-share BSE benchmark settled 98 points or 0.18 per cent lower at 53,416.15. During the day, it hit a high of 53,861.28 and a low of 53,163.77. The broader NSE Nifty also pared initial gains and ended 28 points or 0.18 per cent down to settle at 15,938.65.
Trading in the equity market this week will be highly influenced by a host of important triggers, with quarterly earnings from IT majors TCS, Wipro, and domestic inflation and IIP data taking the centre stage in dictating the movement in equities, analysts said. Besides, global factors and trading activity of foreign investors will also drive markets. "We are approaching the first quarter earnings season, with HCL Tech, TCS and Wipro set to report their earnings this week.
Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty gained around half a per cent to close at nearly five-month high levels on Monday following continuous foreign fund inflows and firm trends in Asian and European markets. Rising for a second straight day, the 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 317.81 points or 0.51 per cent to settle at 62,345.71, the highest closing level since December 14. During the day, it rallied 534.77 points or 0.86 per cent to 62,562.67.
Tomato prices are likely to touch Rs 300 per kilogram in the coming days and the prices of vegetables are also on the rise, according to wholesale traders. Kaushik, a member of Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee (APMC), said that vegetable wholesalers are facing losses as the sale of tomato, capsicum, and other seasonal vegetables has fallen drastically. He said that the prices of tomatoes have shot up to Rs 220 per kilo from Rs 160 per kilo in the wholesale market, owing to which retail prices can also go up.
Retail inflation dropped to 6.77 per cent in October from 7.41 per cent in the preceding month, mainly due to easing prices in the food basket, though it remained above Reserve Bank's comfort level for the 10th month in a row, according to the government data released on Monday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation has remained above the 6 per cent target since January this year.
India's wholesale price-based inflation is at a 30-year high, leading to a "very alarming" situation for the country, former World Bank chief economist Kaushik Basu said on Thursday. He, however, doesn't see any risk of hyperinflation, but cautioned that if retail inflation follows wholesale prices, it might lead to "inflationary crisis". Participating in a virtual event organised by the Asia Society, India, Basu said the inflationary situation in India is at a "very risky bend".
The Centre will sell tomatoes at Rs 80 per kg from Sunday, as against Rs 90 per kg earlier, to provide relief to people from high prices of the key kitchen item in retail markets.
Announcement of macroeconmic data such as industrial production and inflation, the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision along with trends in global equities would dictate movement in the stock market this week, analysts said. Besides, foreign fund trading activity would also guide the trends in equities. "All eyes are now on the US Fed policy outcome for cues, which is scheduled on June 14. In the following sessions, the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) will also announce their policy decisions.
The government is confident of meeting the fiscal deficit target of 5.9 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) and the nominal GDP target of 10.5 per cent despite pressure in the initial months of FY24, Economic Affairs secretary Ajay Seth told Business Standard. Normally the initial months of any financial year see proportionally a higher fiscal deficit because the expenditure is evenly paced while revenue picks up in the later months, he said. "This year the proportional fiscal deficit so far is much closer to the target than in most other years.
Benchmark equity index Sensex and Nifty gave up early gains and ended lower on Monday as investor sentiment was hit due to unabated foreign fund outflows and losses in index heavyweights Reliance Industries and HDFC Bank. The 30-share BSE Sensex declined 168.21 points or 0.28 per cent to settle at 60,092.97 as 15 of its constituents dropped. The barometer opened higher and touched a high of 60,586.77 in morning session. Later in the day, it fell 297.35 points or 0.49 per cent to 59,963.83.
Analysts remain selective on cement stocks amid the likely government's capex push ahead of the scheduled general elections in May 2024. While UBS has initiated coverage on the Indian cement sector with an anti-consensus negative view and suggests investors sell select cement stocks on a rally, those at Nomura remain selectively bullish on the sector and prefer companies with large brownfield optionality and multi-region presence. In the near-term, UBS expects strong earnings of cement companies in the next two quarters to be driven by robust demand and margin tailwinds, but suggests any sharp uptick in stock prices could offer a good opportunity for booking profits in the related counters.
Unprecedented rains and floods in the northern region in the past few days have not only caused extensive damage to lives and property but have also impacted business and commercial establishments. Vegetable prices have gone through the roof in the national capital and many other parts of the country since rains started pouring earlier this month. Traders say vegetable prices would come down only after roads open and skies clear, even as water in the fields will take time to recede.
Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty ended with gains on Wednesday, extending the previous day rally amid lower level of inflation on domestic front and better-than-expected inflation readings from the US. The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 144.61 points or 0.23 per cent to settle at 62,677.91. During the day, it jumped 301.81 points or 0.48 per cent to 62,835.11.
Retail inflation hit an eight-month high of 6.07 per cent in February, remaining above the RBI's comfort level for the second month in a row, while wholesale price-based inflation soared to 13.11 per cent on account of hardening of crude oil and non-food item prices, government data showed on Monday. The previous high for retail inflation was 6.26 per cent in June 2021. The consumer price index (CPI) based retail inflation, which is taken into account by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) while deciding its monetary policy, rose mainly because of costlier food items, as per the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO).
The wholesale price-based inflation eased marginally to 12.07 per cent in June as crude oil and food items witnessed some softening in prices. However, WPI inflation remained in double digit for the third consecutive month in June, mainly due to a low base of last year. WPI inflation was (-) 1.81 per cent, in June 2020. Snapping the five straight months of uptick, the wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation in June softened as prices of food articles and crude oil eased, even though manufactured products hardened.
Notwithstanding the fact that the country's pharmaceutical (pharma) pricing regulator has allowed a 12 per cent price increase for medicines listed under the National List of Essential Medicines (NLEM) in 2023, analysts and industry insiders predict that the overall domestic pharma industry will only witness a price hike of 5-6 per cent. This is attributed to higher competitive intensity in the market. Krishnakumar V, executive director and chief operating officer (CEO) of Eris Lifesciences, a domestic-focused pharma company, noted that the NLEM segment experienced growth suppression of around 150 basis points due to price reductions during the January to July period this year.
M&M was the biggest loser in the Sensex pack, declining nearly 3 per cent, followed by TCS, Bajaj Finance, Wipro, Kotak Bank, Tech Mahindra, HCL Tech and Tata Motors. In contrast, Titan, Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank and L&T were among the gainers, rising up to 0.93 per cent.
Tata Steel was the biggest gainer in the Sensex chart, rising 2.39 per cent, followed by Tata Motors, Power Grid, Reliance Industries, UltraTech Cement, NTPC, Nestle, HUL, Mahindra & Mahindra, Wipro, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Asian Paints. In contrast, Bajaj Finance, IndusInd Bank, Axis Bank, Bharti Airtel, Bajaj Finserv, ICICI Bank, Infosys and Titan were among the laggards.
A careful reading of the national income accounts suggests that after a strong recovery from the pandemic, there has been a significant ebbing of dynamism over the last three quarters to more modest levels recently, note Arvind Subramanian and Josh Felman.
'Rhetoric and chest-thumping are running high on India's recent growth record.'
'But will the giant waves developing elsewhere allow us to sail smoothly into fair winds?' asks Debashis Basu.
In many states, aggregators operate without a licence; in others, with the risk of the licence being revoked by any regional transport office on the slightest pretext.
Wholesale price-based inflation spiked to a record high of 15.08 per cent in April on rising prices across segments from food to commodities. The WPI-based inflation was 14.55 per cent in March and 10.74 per cent in April last year. "The high rate of inflation in April 2022 was primarily due to rise in prices of mineral oils, basic metals, crude petroleum & natural gas, food articles, non-food articles, food products and chemicals & chemical products etc. as compared to the corresponding month of the previous year," the commerce and industry ministry said in a statement.
Benchmark BSE Sensex rose by over 379 points on Tuesday as gains in oil & gas, banking and auto shares helped the barometer continue winning run for the third straight session. The 30-share BSE benchmark index advanced 379.43 points or 0.64 per cent to settle at 59,842.21. During the day, it jumped 460.25 points or 0.77 per cent to 59,923.03. The broader NSE Nifty climbed 127.10 points or 0.72 per cent to 17,825.25 as 42 of its constituents advanced.
'Revision of the base year for both CPI and GDP are long overdue.' 'The basic data that went into the 2011-2012 series were mainly from surveys done in 2011 or earlier.' 'We have since seen the emergence of new sectors like platform-based work and online marketing.' 'The employment surveys and the consumption surveys need to reflect these adequately.'
The wholesale price-based inflation shot up to an all-time high of 10.49 per cent in April, on rising prices of crude oil and manufactured items. Also, a low base of April last year contributed to the spike in inflation in April 2021. The WPI inflation was 7.39 per cent in March 2021, and (-) 1.57 per cent in April 2020. This is the fourth straight month of uptick seen in the wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation.
For manufactured products, the wholesale inflation was at (-)0.84 per cent in October 2019.
RBI in its policy review last month kept interest rates unchanged and said it sees an upside risk to inflation.
8 out of 10 households are planning to cut their tomato consumption if prices stay in the Rs 75-150 kg range over the next three months.
The wholesale price-based inflation in February rose to 13.11 per cent on hardening of prices of crude oil and non-food items, even though food articles softened. After two months of mild easing, WPI inflation accelerated in February and remained in double digits for the 11th consecutive month, beginning April 2021. WPI inflation last month was 12.96 per cent, while in February last year, it was 4.83 per cent. The rise in crude oil and natural gas prices after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, beginning February 24, has put pressure on the wholesale price index, even though food articles saw softening across categories of vegetables to pulses to protein-rich items.
In contrast with their strong performance in 2020 and 2021, pharmaceutical and healthcare funds experienced a decline in 2022, with returns plummeting by an average 9.8 per cent. This trend has continued in the current year, with year-to-date return remaining in the negative (-4.9 per cent). In the past three months, pharma funds have been hit hard, experiencing a 7.9 per cent decline.
The wholesale price-based inflation rose to an eight-month high of 1.48 per cent in October, as manufactured products turned costlier. The WPI inflation was 1.32 per cent in September and zero per cent in October last year. This is the highest level of wholesale price index-based (WPI) inflation since February when it was 2.26 per cent.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday upped inflation projection for the current fiscal to 6.7 per cent from 5.7 per cent forecast in April. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the upside risk to inflation persists and the recent spike in tomato prices would fuel food inflation. Also, high global crude oil prices would add to the upside pressure on inflation. The upward revision in inflation projection comes as domestic retail inflation has remained above RBI's comfort level of 6 per cent for four months in a row, mainly due to the Russia-Ukraine war which has impacted the prices of commodities across the globe.
The retail inflation rate breached the 6 per cent upper tolerance limit of the RBI for the first time in seven months in January, while the wholesale price index stayed in double-digits for the 10th month in a row, showed two sets of data released by the government on Monday. Retail inflation, the key input for the RBI while reviewing the repo rate every two months, soared during the month mainly because of a spike in certain food items. The previous high for retail inflation was 6.26 per cent in June 2021.
A 6-7 million tonnes shortfall in rice production due to a fall in paddy sowing area is likely to keep rice prices at elevated levels, adding to the inflationary pressure that the slowing economy is already grappling with. Elevated food prices, including that of cereals, had led to retail inflation reversing a three-month declining trend, to touch 7 per cent in August. Similarly, the wholesale price inflation, which declined to 11-month low, also showed price pressures from cereals resulting from wheat output being impacted by severe heat waves in some parts of the country.
Inflation has reappeared as a global issue in both advanced and emerging economies and India needs to be wary of "imported inflation", especially due to high oil prices, according to the Economic Survey 2021-22 released on Monday. "Inflation has reappeared as a global issue in both advanced and emerging economies. "India's Consumer Price Index inflation stood at 5.6 per cent YoY in December 2021 which is within the targeted tolerance band," the survey report presented in the Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman noted.
The wholesale price-based inflation bucked the 4-month rising trend in December 2021, and eased to 13.56 per cent, mainly on account of softening in fuel, power and manufacturing items even though food prices hardened. WPI inflation has remained in double digits for the ninth consecutive month beginning April. Inflation in November was 14.23 per cent, while in December 2020 it was 1.95 per cent.
The wholesale price-based inflation rose to a four-month high of 14.55 per cent in March, mainly due to hardening of crude oil and commodity prices, even though vegetables witnessed easing of price pressures. As per the government data released on Monday, WPI inflation has remained in double digits for the 12th consecutive month beginning April 2021. The last time such a level of WPI was recorded was in November 2021, when inflation was 14.87 per cent.
The Reserve Bank of India's rate-setting panel on Wednesday began its three-day deliberations on the next bi-monthly monetary policy amid expectations of at least a 35-basis-point hike in the interest rate to check high inflation. If raised, it will be the third consecutive hike in the repo rate -- the short-term rate at which the RBI lends money to banks. The central bank has already announced to gradually withdraw its accommodative monetary policy stance.
The wholesale price-based inflation eased for the second consecutive month in January at 12.96 per cent, even though food prices hardened, the government said on Monday. WPI inflation has remained in double digits for the tenth consecutive month beginning April 2021. Inflation in December 2021 was 13.56 per cent, while in January 2021, it was 2.51 per cent.
India has built up buffers against cyclical difficulties and has ample foreign exchange reserves to withstand pressure on credit worthiness, S&P Global Ratings said on Thursday. Speaking at the India Credit Spotlight 2022 webinar, S&P Sovereign & International Public Finance Ratings director Andrew Wood said the country has a strong external balance sheet and limited external debt, making debt servicing not so expensive. "The country has built up buffers against cyclical difficulties like those, which we are experiencing right now," Wood said.
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