Stock markets will be driven by domestic inflation data, ongoing quarterly earnings from corporates and global trends this week, analysts said. News flows around the general election would also be tracked by investors, market experts said.
Equity markets would take cues from domestic inflation data announcement, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Markets would remain closed on Tuesday for 'Diwali Balipratipada'. "As we enter a truncated week with Muhurat trading on Sunday, global cues will play a pivotal role in shaping the market direction.
In a data-packed week, the domestic macroeconomic figures -- industrial production and inflation numbers -- along with global trends would dictate trends in the equity market this week, analysts said. According to experts, markets may face volatile trends due to high valuations. Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty hit their fresh record peaks on Thursday. Besides, trading activity of foreign investors, movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar trend would also influence trading in equities.
'The nominal GDP growth assumption for FY25 may be revised upwards on higher growth expectations.'
Wholesale inflation rate declined marginally to 0.2 per cent in February compared to 0.27 per cent in the preceding month despite a slight uptick in the food basket. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation was in the negative zone from April to October and had turned positive in November at 0.26 per cent. The inflation in February 2023 was 3.85 per cent.
According to the final recommendations of an expert committee, the weight of primary (unprocessed) food items will go down by 0.5-1.0 percentage points in the new series compared to the current one
From the Sensex pack, HCL Technologies, Infosys, Wipro, Bharti Airtel, Larsen & Toubro, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Consultancy Services and Asian Paints were the major gainers. Axis Bank, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finance, JSW Steel, State Bank of India and Tata Steel were among the major laggards.
The wholesale inflation rose to a 13-month high of 1.26 per cent in April fuelled by rising prices of food articles, especially vegetables, amid expectations of RBI holding interest rates in the policy review next month. The wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation has been rising for two months in a row.
Growth rate in per capita income is projected to fall to the lowest in 21 years this financial year - except for the financial years 2019-20 (FY20) and 2020-21 (FY21) - according to the first advance estimates. During the last 21 years, the two periods - FY20 and FY21 - saw growth rates in per capita income lower than 7.9 per cent, seen during FY24. This was despite the real gross domestic product (GDP) being projected to grow by 7.3 per cent in the current financial year by the first advance estimates.
The wholesale price index-based inflation remained in the negative territory for the seventh straight month in October at (-) 0.52 per cent, on easing prices of food items. The WPI-based inflation rate has been in the negative zone since April and was at (-) 0.26 per cent in September, 2023. In October last year, WPI was at 8.67 per cent.
The wholesale price index-based inflation remained in the negative territory for the sixth straight month in September at (-)0.26 per cent, on easing prices of food articles. The WPI-based inflation rate has been in the negative since April and was (-)0.52 per cent in August. In September last year, it was 10.55 per cent.
The government has been stringent with pricing changes. Prices of 651 essential medicines came down from April 1, 2023 by 6.73 per cent with the government capping ceiling prices of these drugs.
Tomato prices in the retail markets of the national capital declined to an average Rs 150 per kg on Monday from Rs 178 per kg on Sunday, according to the government data. However, e-commerce players such as Amazon, Big Basket and Otipy are selling tomatoes at Rs 170-190 per kg in Delhi-NCR. Blinkit is selling at Rs 138 per kg. The Centre is selling tomatoes at a subsidised rate of Rs 80 per kg in Delhi-NCR and some other cities through the National Cooperative Consumers' Federation of India (NCCF) and the National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India (NAFED).
Benchmark BSE Sensex closed above the historic 66,000-mark for the first time while NSE Nifty hit a new all-time closing high driven by heavy buying in IT counters and fresh foreign fund inflows. Optimism in global equity markets also helped the local markets maintain their winning momentum for a second day. The 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 502.01 points or 0.77 per cent to settle at its new all-time closing high of 66,060.90.
The government expects onion prices to fall below Rs 40 per kilogram by January from the current average price of Rs 57.02 per kilogram, Consumer Affairs secretary Rohit Kumar Singh said on Monday. Last week, the government banned onion exports till March next year after the retail sales price of the kitchen staple crossed Rs 80 per kg in the national capital and the prices in mandis remained around Rs 60 per kg. To a query on when the onion prices are expected to fall below Rs 40 per kg, Singh said, "very soon... January"
Mahindra & Mahindra was the top laggard in the Sensex pack, sliding 2.05 per cent, followed by Bajaj Finance, Tata Steel, SBI, Asian Paints, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Titan. However, IT majors HCL Technologies and TCS defied the trend and gained 1.02 per cent and 0.47 per cent, respectively. FMCG firm Hindustan Unilever rose 0.32 per cent.
From the Sensex pack, Infosys, Hindustan Unilever, Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, Larsen & Toubro, Asian Paints, Nestle, Axis Bank, Wipro and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the major gainers. JSW Steel, State Bank of India, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finserv, UltraTech Cement, IndusInd Bank, Tata Motors and Bajaj Finance were the major laggards.
Retail inflation jumped to a 15-month high of 7.44 per cent in July as prices of vegetables and other food items spiked, according to official data released on Monday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation was at 4.87 in June and 6.71 per cent in July 2022. Previously, high inflation was recorded at 7.79 per cent in April 2022.
Mahindra & Mahindra was the biggest gainer on the Sensex chart, rising 2.56 per cent, followed by Tata Steel, Tech Mahindra, Nestle, Power Grid, Infosys, HCL Technologies, Axis Bank, UltraTech Cement and L&T. In contrast, Asian Paints, ITC, Bajaj Finserv, Bharti Airtel and Tata Motors were among the laggards.
The Interim Budget for 2024-25 (FY25) to be presented on February 1 is likely to assume 10-10.5 per cent nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth against 8.9 per cent estimated for FY24 by the National Statistical Office (NSO). "We were waiting for the First Advance Estimates GDP numbers for FY24. "We will finalise the nominal GDP growth assumption for FY25 Interim Budget in a couple of days.
Quarterly earnings from IT majors Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys, macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would guide the movement in the equity market this week, analysts said. Movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude and the rupee will also influence trading in the markets. "All eyes will be on the beginning of corporate performance for the second quarter of the current fiscal year. TCS is slated to unveil its Q2 results on October 11, with HCL Technologies and Infosys following suit on October 12.
The wholesale price-based inflation eased to a 29-month low of 1.34 per cent in March on easing prices of manufactured products and fuel items, even though food articles turned expensive.
The wholesale price-based inflation declined to over two-year low of 3.85 per cent in January on easing prices of manufactured items, fuel and power, even though food articles remained expensive. This is the ninth straight month of decline in the rate of wholesale price-index (WPI) based inflation. The WPI inflation was 4.73 per cent in January and 13.43 per cent in February, last year.
For the consumer, there would be practically no impact on prices of essential medicines this year.
The Indian economy is likely to post better than anticipated growth in the second quarter (July-September) owing to robust urban consumption and expansion in services, a Business Standard analysis of high-frequency indicators showed. While gross domestic product growth in the September quarter is expected to come below the 7.8 per cent print in the June quarter due to a favourable base fading, analysts say the print will be much closer to 7 per cent than the 6.5 per cent anticipated earlier. While the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had estimated 6.5 per cent growth for July-September, last month Governor Shaktikanta Das said the growth figure would surprise on the upside.
The government has exhausted only 39 per cent of its fiscal deficit target in the first half of FY24.
Now that the economy is growing at a higher-than-expected rate, it is time to accelerate the pace of fiscal consolidation, and the Budget could be a good starting point, argues Rajesh Kumar.
Vegetable vendors and wholesalers have blamed rains for disruption in tomato supply, leading to the price of the kitchen staple skyrocketing in retail markets of the national capital. Local vendors are selling tomatoes in the price range of Rs 80 to Rs 120 per kg, depending on the quality and the localities. Anil Malhotra, a member of the Azadpur Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee (APMC), said tomato prices shoot up every monsoon but it was never this high.
Sounding a note of caution, the Reserve Bank said on Friday said there is a risk of high wholesale price inflation (WPI) putting pressure on the retail inflation, albeit with a lag. In its annual report, the RBI said that the cost-push pressures from high industrial raw material prices, transportation costs and global logistics, and supply chain bottlenecks continue to impinge on core inflation. "The substantial wedge between wholesale and retail price inflation amidst a sharp rise in manufactured products' inflation poses the risk of a possible passthrough of input cost pressures to retail inflation with a lag, although slack in the economy is muting the pass-through," the central bank noted.
The government on Saturday imposed a 40 per cent duty on the export of onions to increase domestic availability amid signs of increasing prices. The export duty, which is the first time ever on onion, has been imposed as the retail sale price of the kitchen staple, according to government data, touched Rs 37/kg on Saturday in Delhi. The finance ministry through a Customs notification imposed a 40 per cent export duty on onions till December 31, 2023.
In a statement, the department of consumer affairs said about 18,000 kg of tomatoes were sold across Delhi-NCR to retail consumers.
Wholesale price-based inflation rose to a record high of 15.88 per cent in May on rising prices of food items and crude oil. The Wholesale Price Index-based inflation was 15.08 per cent in April and 13.11 per cent in May last year. "The high rate of inflation in May, 2022 is primarily due to rise in prices of mineral oils, crude petroleum & natural gas, food articles, basic metals, non-food articles, chemicals & chemical products and food products etc. as compared to the corresponding month of the previous year," the commerce and industry ministry said in a statement.
Benchmark Sensex declined 224 points on Wednesday, snapping its four-session winning streak, mainly due to sell-off in IT and pharma counters amid rising concerns over possible aggressive interest rate hikes to tame high inflation. The 30-share index rebounded more than 1,200 points from the early lows before settling at 60,346.97 points, a total loss of 224.11 points or 0.37 per cent compared to Tuesday's closing level. The broader NSE Nifty closed lower 66.30 points or 0.37 per cent at 18,003.75 points.
India's headline retail inflation is expected to moderate further in the months to come, as low wholesale inflation will transmit to consumer prices, the Ministry of Finance said in its latest monthly economic review (MER) on Monday. "Inflationary pressures eased in February, with slight moderation in Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation softening to a 25-month low. "With WPI inflation easing, its transmission to CPI inflation is soon expected," the MER for February said.
Trading in the equity market this week will be highly influenced by a host of important triggers, with quarterly earnings from IT majors TCS, Wipro, and domestic inflation and IIP data taking the centre stage in dictating the movement in equities, analysts said. Besides, global factors and trading activity of foreign investors will also drive markets. "We are approaching the first quarter earnings season, with HCL Tech, TCS and Wipro set to report their earnings this week.
Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty gave up early gains to close lower for a fourth straight session on Thursday due to selling in IT and banking shares amid weak global equities. The 30-share BSE benchmark settled 98 points or 0.18 per cent lower at 53,416.15. During the day, it hit a high of 53,861.28 and a low of 53,163.77. The broader NSE Nifty also pared initial gains and ended 28 points or 0.18 per cent down to settle at 15,938.65.
Tomato prices are likely to touch Rs 300 per kilogram in the coming days and the prices of vegetables are also on the rise, according to wholesale traders. Kaushik, a member of Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee (APMC), said that vegetable wholesalers are facing losses as the sale of tomato, capsicum, and other seasonal vegetables has fallen drastically. He said that the prices of tomatoes have shot up to Rs 220 per kilo from Rs 160 per kilo in the wholesale market, owing to which retail prices can also go up.
Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty gained around half a per cent to close at nearly five-month high levels on Monday following continuous foreign fund inflows and firm trends in Asian and European markets. Rising for a second straight day, the 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 317.81 points or 0.51 per cent to settle at 62,345.71, the highest closing level since December 14. During the day, it rallied 534.77 points or 0.86 per cent to 62,562.67.
Retail inflation dropped to 6.77 per cent in October from 7.41 per cent in the preceding month, mainly due to easing prices in the food basket, though it remained above Reserve Bank's comfort level for the 10th month in a row, according to the government data released on Monday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation has remained above the 6 per cent target since January this year.
The government is confident of meeting the fiscal deficit target of 5.9 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) and the nominal GDP target of 10.5 per cent despite pressure in the initial months of FY24, Economic Affairs secretary Ajay Seth told Business Standard. Normally the initial months of any financial year see proportionally a higher fiscal deficit because the expenditure is evenly paced while revenue picks up in the later months, he said. "This year the proportional fiscal deficit so far is much closer to the target than in most other years.
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