The key question is how much of the latest growth record represents recovery from the 2020-2021 downturn, and what is the sustainable growth rate now, asks T N Ninan.
'The critical event signalling a new era for India was Dr Singh's 1991 Budget in which he quoted Victor Hugo to say that no power on earth could stop an idea whose time has come,' recalls T N Ninan.
While India should be concerned about disparities, the fact is that whereas three decades ago about half the people had incomes greater than $2.15 a day, today seven out of eight do, notes T N Ninan.
Even if no statistical jugglery is afoot, only to warn that the 'noise' in the numbers should be eliminated in order to hear the underlying music, without distortion, warns T N Ninan.
The BJP is the preferred choice because it offers what the Mughals and later British offered in their time: A stable polity and an environment in which business could function, explains T N Ninan.
If Ahmedabad is India's preferred candidate, as seems likely, hosting Olympics 2036 should give it a leg up: A bigger airport, a better metro network, more hotels, flyovers and so on, observes T N Ninan.
If it continues to do well economically, develops a large manufacturing sector, gains in technological heft, builds a more capable defence industry, improves its human development indicators, becomes more of a trading nation, and has greater internal cohesion. In short, it is a work in progress, suggests T N Ninan.
With changes to Delhi's architectural map, a re-naming rash, and more Hindu symbolism in secular spaces, the government is making it clear it wants a clean break with post-colonial India, asserts T N Ninan.
The real risk is that the core assumption -- that the votes for a candidate sponsored by an alliance will at least equal the sum total of its parts -- proves to be facile, observes T N Ninan.
This could become tricky territory for India, given its basically adversarial relationship with China, its moves to block imports and investment from that country, and to deny market access for Chinese technologies, observes T N Ninan.
The Opposition parties need to spell out how exactly they will protect the citizen from government excess, asserts T N Ninan.
Even as India strives to climb the development mountain, the fact is that the mountaintop is already crowded. If it got there in 2047, India would be very much a late-comer, observes T N Ninan.
The last time a bear attack was launched on a controversial businessman was when a cabal of brokers launched an assault in the early 1980s on what they thought was an over-priced Reliance share, recalls T N Ninan.
The government's step could push investors to choose riskier equity, or to fall back on bank deposits, thereby negatively impacting the debt market which actually needs to grow, points out T N Ninan.
One could argue that India is not troubled in the same way as China is by a declining population and structural problems in real estate/construction and finance. But India has serious trade and fiscal imbalances, and excessive dependence on capital expenditure by the government, points out T N Ninan.
The broader economy risks a potential flight of foreign portfolio capital, therefore pressure on the rupee and more bad news on the stock market, warns T N Ninan.
India must integrate more with East Asia by getting into regional trade arrangements, lower its tariff walls, and improve the quality of its workforce, suggests T N Ninan.
With a narrow industrial base and dysfunctional politics, and a counter-productive national security agenda, Pakistan could well remain an 'international migraine', observes T N Ninan.
Mr Adani has a fight on his hands. It is not a fight to the death, asserts T N Ninan.
The likelihood is that India will maintain a moderately upbeat economic tempo -- well short of tearaway growth, explains T N Ninan.
If only the Congress could rebuild on its strengths and develop a modern enough ideology, we could again be moving towards a clearer two-party political landscape, asserts Shekhar Gupta.
The development of private data sources is a hugely positive development. It should serve as a challenge to the government to improve its own record on producing timely and reliable statistics, points out T N Ninan.
Perhaps the finance ministry or NITI Aayog could take a detailed look at what governments actually deliver and at what cost; how their services can be improved and expanded where necessary; how much money can be saved through doing things differently; and how many things the government does which it can safely leave to the private sector, argues T N Ninan.
Don't be surprised if growth in the second half of the financial year drops below 4%, which is where it was in the year before the pandemic, warns T N Ninan.
Is self-reliance the right approach in a mega-buck game, or better to be part of a network? asks T N Ninan.
A family man, a confident investor, someone who was sure two decades ago that India and its stock market were going to boom. T N Ninan recalls his chats with Rakesh Jhunjhunwala.
Blame the voter, who invariably chooses the promise of hand-outs today in preference to a vague promise of, say, better schools tomorrow. Getting the Supreme Court to issue an edict, or Parliament to pass a law, is no solution, observes T N Ninan.
The question in Maruti's relationship with its parent company, Suzuki, is whether the Japanese company intends to treat its minority Indian shareholders fairly.
The funny thing is that the government has the money - but it is going into subsidies that Mr Jaitley has chosen to leave untouched.
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley talks to T N Ninan.
India's growth in the last three financial years has averaged just 1.9%. It is natural to project rapid growth from this low base. Crucial to that would be the assumption that the economy has suffered no lasting damage from the pandemic, observes T N Ninan.
The next quarter-century could mark India's rise as a nation to be more whole-heartedly admired if it addresses its institutional and policy failures, and focuses on reducing its inequalities and addressing its iniquities, asserts T N Ninan.
Taking up the speeds of inter-city Shatabdi Express trains from the present average of 70-75 km/hour to about 100 km/hour will cut the Mumbai-Ahmedabad travel time from seven to five hours.
The law may be good politics, but politics without grounding in basic economics is the surest guarantee of economic disaster.
For large numbers of employees in the government system, the month-end salary cheque is no longer guaranteed. So the days of the government and State-owned enterprises wanting to be ideal employers are over, observes T N Ninan.
The disconnect with the AAP is that its economic agenda sounds suspiciously like Indira Gandhi's of the early 1970s: more subsidies, higher taxes, regulation of private school fees, free water, et al.
What is missing in the government are people with enough weight in the system who can give quality economic advice, and offer subject expertise, says T N Ninan.
It is odd how governments don't learn from their predecessors' mistakes, says T N Ninan.
The original big boys (Tata, Birla, Ambani) were not the stars of the decade.
Focusing on low GDP growth in recent years, therefore, masks the deeper crisis facing manufacturing and mining.
© 2026 Rediff.com - Investor Information - Advertise with us - Disclaimer - Privacy Policy - Sitemap - Feedback - About us - Terms of use - Grievances