While participants in the domestic financial market are expecting a 25 basis-point policy repo rate cut in the December meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), economists remain torn between a reduction in rate cut and a pause.
In trade negotiations, as in chess, sometimes you need to accept a temporary disadvantage to secure a better long-term position, points out Sonal Varma, chief economist (India and Asia ex-Japan) at Nomura.
The change in stance to neutral from accommodative in the June monetary policy meeting does not necessarily signal that the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) rate setting body - monetary policy committee (MPC) - will go on a prolonged pause on rate cuts going forward, believe experts.
The interim Budget proposals that will be presented on February 1 in the backdrop of the general elections scheduled in April/May 2024 are likely to have a hint of populism, believe analysts, but are unlikely to derail the government from its path of fiscal prudence.
While India won't be immune to global spillovers, we need to create the macro preconditions for sustained growth. Policy agility, prudence, and resilience will be key, suggests Sonal Varma.
Japanese brokerage Nomura has said a Narendra Modi-led government will help the rupee jump to 58 against the US dollar and trigger up to a 10 per cent rally in the stock market.
Due to poor revenue mop-up, the government may miss it by 50 basis point.
India is in favourable position to attract foreign firms planning to relocate their manufacturing bases due to trade tension between the US and China, says Nomura.
Election results on Friday will determine the strength of the ruling coalition party Congress which will also determine market direction.
Input shortages and low inventories, according to Nomura, will likely lead to production cuts and delayed shipments in the September 2021 quarter.
The El Nino risks for this year is rising in India and it could result in sub-par rains, says a report.
In terms of stock selection, India continues to benefit from two phenomena - the big getting bigger and availability of quality stocks in relative abundance compared with its Asian peers.
The markets have been unable to sustain at higher levels as a rise in bond yields globally, especially in the US have dented sentiment. Surging commodity prices, especially crude oil that have now hit $70 a barrel (Brent) coupled with inflation woes and fear of sporadic lockdown across major economic hubs back home as Covid cases rise have chased the bulls away. In the short-term, analysts expect the markets to remain volatile as they react to news flow - both from overseas and developments back home. Investors, they say, need to keep a tab on how the US treasury yields move, which in turn will have a ripple effect on how big money moves across developed (DMs) and emerging markets (EMs), including India.
The elections held in April-May 2019 will be an important determinant of future growth and investment.
After turning net buyers for the fifth straight month till June, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) withdrew a net of Rs 11,743 crore ($1.7 billion) in July. This was their highest outflow since October 2018.
Uncertainties like the bankruptcies bill, rising non-performing accounts at banks and political uncertainty are expected to drive gold demand higher in India.
The government is expected to dole out some populist policies, especially for the rural / farm sector while presenting the interim budget, given that the country is heading towards general elections over the next few months.
Rate cuts are unlikely to be aggressive, in our view.
Mumbai, May 14 (PTI) The massive spike in trade deficit caused by sharp rise in gold imports in April would not sustain and there is no need to get excessively worried over the data, analysts have said. They also said the current account deficit or the difference between the foreign exchan ...
There will be pressure on the fiscal situation, especially at a time when the monsoon can also disappoint. More populist expenditure is on cards if the mandate is a hung Parliament or a coalition government.
Brokerage firm CLSA says in its interactions with government officials, measures such as the dollar-deposit scheme were under consideration.
Nomura has forecast the rupee at 61.6 against the dollar in Q1 and at 62 by Q4 of 2015.
Analysts expect the central bank to remain watchful of inflation.
India's manufacturing PMI rose to 54.5 in December, 2014, while in the corresponding period a year ago it stood at 50.7, just above the crucial 50 mark which separates growth from contraction.
Indian economy is set for a 'goldilocks' period -- used to describe a timeframe of high growth and low inflation -- while it can become Asia's fastest growing economy in 2016, Japanese financial major Nomura said.
Lower fuel subsidy payouts might restrict gross fiscal deficit in FY15.
January inflation may undershoot RBI's 6% target.
Food prices, which have contributed to a large part of inflation over recent years, have remained benign, despite unseasonal rain.
RBI projects GDP growth in FY16 at 7.8 per cent, 30 bps higher than FY15. However, this comes with a downward bias.
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Bank has cited trend of global easing and weak growth
Between now and the general elections (likely in May 2019) there are 12 assembly polls, which analysts say, in a way will also be interpreted as a referendum on the Modi-led government's key reforms
HSBC on Monday lowered India's GDP forecast for the current financial year to 4 per cent from 5.5 per cent earlier saying economic uncertainty is likely to weigh on the growth forecast in the coming months.
Experts feel oil prices will remain volatile with an upward bias.
Exports to Europe shrank by near 2 per cent in the 11 months.
The 30-share Sensex ended down 556 points at 27,886 and the 50-share Nifty ended down 158 points at 8,444.
Why India is an FDI magnet. The country satisfies several reconditions to attract FDI.
After fighting inflation for more than two years, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Duvvuri Subbarao finally managed to bring it below the five per cent level - the tolerance level of the central bank - in FY14.
The fuel reforms are a very important signal of the government's commitment to tough economic reforms.
AAP has promised lower electricity bills, free basic water supply.
For now, the upside appears to offset damage done to exports by weaker global demand.
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