The economic growth may have slowed to 3.5 per cent in fourth quarter of 2021-22 from 5.4 per cent in the previous three-month period due to the impact of higher commodity prices on margins, decline in wheat yields and on higher base, Icra Ratings said on Monday. The agency said the hiccups in the recovery of the contact-intensive services attributable to the third wave of Covid-19 in the country may have also affected the economic growth in the quarter. Even the gross value added (GVA) at basic prices (at constant 2011-12 prices) in Q4 FY2022 seems to have eased to 2.7 per cent from 4.7 per cent in Q3 FY2022, it said.
'Multiplexes will thrive by Q4 if 100% capacity is restored and a third Covid wave doesn't happen.'
India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed to 4.1 per cent in January-March 2022 period, while for the full year 2021-22 the growth stood at 8.7 per cent, according to the government data released on Tuesday. GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in Q4 2021-22 is estimated at Rs 40.78 lakh crore, as against Rs 39.18 lakh crore in Q4 2020-21, showing a growth of 4.1 per cent, as per the National Statistical Office (NSO) data. India's GDP growth has slowed for the third straight quarter.
The early bird results for the January-March 2022 quarter (Q4FY22) hint at a slowdown in corporate sector growth in the upcoming quarters. The combined net sales of the 81 early bird companies in the Business Standard sample were up 15.1 per cent year-on-year in Q4FY22; this was less than the 15.9 per cent YoY jump reported in Q3FY22. The slowdown could be much stronger for the domestic market-focused companies, including those in the banking, finance, and insurance (BFSI) space.
The early bird results for the January-March quarter of 2022-23 (Q4FY23) show a pick-up in earnings growth, despite a slowdown in revenue growth, thanks to a decline in input costs and lower provisioning for bad loans by banks. The combined net profit of 66 companies that have, so far, declared their quarterly results was up 15.2 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in Q4FY23, an improvement from 4.3 per cent YoY growth in Q3. Net sales growth of these companies, however, slowed down to 11.5 per cent YoY in January-March 2023, the slowest rate in eight quarters.
Diversified entity ITC Ltd on Thursday reported a 22.66 per cent rise in consolidated net profit at Rs 5,225.02 crore in the fourth quarter ended March 2023, led by a strong growth momentum across operating segments. The company had posted a net profit of Rs 4,259.68 crore a year ago, ITC Ltd said in a regulatory filing. Its revenue from operations increased 7 per cent to Rs 18,799.18 crore in the period under review against Rs 17,754.02 crore in the year-ago period.
A quick look at the Q1FY23 performance of top-tier IT services players shows that they are still far away from getting a grip on managing attrition. Talent retention has eroded not only their margins but also any gains they may have made from rupee depreciation. Despite robust growth numbers and strong deal pipelines, margins for all the players -- TCS, Infosys, HCL Technologies and Wipro -- have continued to shrink at a pace that has had the street surprised.
Chief economist at State Bank of India has revised downward the full-year growth forecast to a low 6.8 per cent from 7.5 per cent earlier for FY2023, citing "the way below GDP numbers for the first quarter". The National Statistical Office on Wednesday released the Q1 growth numbers which showed a consensus growth of 13.5 per cent, pulled down by the poor show of the manufacturing sector, which reported a paltry 4.8 per cent expansion in the first three months of FY23, negating the robust show by the services sector. Consensus forecast was 15-16.7 per cent of which the RBI made the highest forecast of 16.7 per cent.
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (Sun Pharma) reported a turnaround in the January-March quarter of the 2022-23 financial year (Q4FY23), declaring a profit after tax (PAT) of Rs 1,984 crore versus a loss of Rs 2,277 crore in Q4FY22. However, that loss in FY22 was due to several exceptional one-time items -- with Rs 3,723.15 crore allocated to settlement of lawsuits in the US and other Exceptional Items adding up to Rs 3,935.75 crore. Adjusted for exceptional items, PAT in Q4FY22 amounts to Rs 2,155 crore, which is a year-on-year (YoY) growth of about 36 per cent.
Maruti Suzuki India on Wednesday reported a 42 per cent rise in consolidated net profit to Rs 2,671 crore for the fourth quarter ended March 2023, driven by higher sales, improved realisation and favourable forex movement. The country's largest carmaker logged a net profit of Rs 1,876 crore in the January-March of 2021-22. Net sales during the fourth quarter rose to Rs 32,060 crore compared to Rs 26,749 crore in the year-ago period, Maruti Suzuki India (MSI) said in a regulatory filing.
The earnings of India Inc hit a record high in the 2022-23 (FY23) January-March quarter (fourth quarter, or Q4), compared with their poor showing in the previous two quarters of the financial year. The rise in earnings, however, is exclusively led by banking, financial services, and insurance (BFSI) companies. A better-than-expected showing by banks and non-bank lenders in Q4FY23 more than compensated for the earnings contraction in the non-BFSI space.
A slowdown in hiring by India's top IT companies has resulted in a sharp increase in the industry's profit per employee in Q3FY23. The top four IT companies earned a net profit of 1.7 lakh per employee during October-December 2022, up 8.6 per cent from Rs 1.57 lakh in Q2FY23 and 16.3 per cent from a record low of Rs 1.47 lakh in Q1FY23. Earnings per employee in the third quarter were, however, still down 0.9 per cent on a year-on-year (YoY) basis.
The combined net profit of "early bird" companies, those that have declared their quarterly results, rose for the third consecutive quarter in July-September 2023 (Q2FY24). But the figures suggest a continued slowdown in revenue growth and stagnation in earnings over recent quarters. This slowdown is severe for companies in the manufacturing and non-financial service sectors.
Corporate earnings got a big boost from the fall in commodity and energy prices in July-September 2023 (Q2FY24) despite a slowdown in revenue growth during the quarter. The combined net profits of 3,123 firms that have declared their results so far were up 38 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 3.07 trillion in Q2FY24, up from Rs 2.24 trillion a year ago. Earnings were, however, down 3.5 per cent on a sequential basis from Rs 3.18 trillion in April-June (Q1) FY24.
Telecom operator Vodafone Idea on Tuesday reported narrowing of its consolidated losses to Rs 6,563.1 crore for the fourth quarter ended March compared to same period of the previous year, while its realisation per user or ARPU improved sharply on a sequential basis. The losses were at Rs 7,022.8 crore in the year-ago period, according to a company filing. Its revenue from operations rose 6.6 per cent year-on-year to Rs 10,239.5 crore in Q4 FY22.
Analysts seem to be generally pessimistic about Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL). Out of 15 brokerages with recommendations since May this year, two have 'buy' while five have 'sell' and eight have 'underweight'/'reduce'/'underperform'/'hold' recommendations. The average target price of the public sector undertaking (PSU) is Rs 61. However, the stock has been consistently hitting new highs, which indicates that there is some kind of valuation mismatch.
Axis Bank on Thursday reported a 54 per cent jump in its standalone net profit to Rs 4,117.77 crore for the quarter ended March 2022. The country's third-largest private sector lender had posted a net profit of Rs 2,677.06 crore in the year-ago period. The total income (standalone) rose to Rs 21,999.58 crore in the January-March period of 2021-22 against Rs 19,035.12 crore in the same period of 2020-21, Axis Bank said in a regulatory filing. For the full 2021-22, the net profit nearly doubled to Rs 13,025.48 crore from Rs 6,588.50 crore in 2020-21.
MMFS is looking at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18 per cent in assets under management (AUM) during FY23 to FY26 on the back of the strong recovery. The company has initiated risk-mitigating initiatives, including diversification into non-vehicle loans, building digital capacity and re-classification of customer profiles into affluent and mass-affluent in semi-urban segments to better target marketing.
Led by Trent, which hit its lifetime-high recently, apparel retailers have gained between 10 per cent and 36 per cent over the past three weeks. Given the network of physical stores, these stocks shall be major beneficiaries of the unlock theme, with most states doing away with Covid restrictions. Amid improving footfall, analysts expect the sector to post double-digit growth in FY23.
Benefitting from the economic rebound, banks are expected to report a healthy bottom-line and asset quality profile in the quarter ended March 2023 (Q4FY23). The net profit of listed commercial banks is projected to grow by an average 43.6 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in Q4FY23 amid better net interest margins (NIMs) and declining credit costs. This is based on a combined assessment of analyst estimates for 17 banks on Bloomberg database.
Despite enduring a weak first quarter of the 2023-24 financial year (Q1FY24), Power Grid Corporation (PGCIL) has laid out an ambitious capex plan going forward. It is looking to invest around Rs 1.8 trillion on an existing asset base of Rs 2.7 trillion to aim at keeping over 50 per cent market share in the transmission market. This includes opportunities from the Rs 2.4 trillion green energy corridor.
The retail industry witnessed robust top-line growth for the greater part of the previous financial year, but demand has started to show signs of fatigue seen in the January-March quarter (fourth quarter, or Q4) of 2022-23 (FY23), especially in the apparel and innerwear segments. Jewellery, however, has managed to hold on to demand in the quarter. "In the discretionary space, demand moderation in urban markets is expected to impact the quick-service restaurant and apparel categories the most, while paint, luggage, and jewellery should see resilient growth," Systematic Institutional Equities observed in its preview of the sector.
HDFC Bank Q4 review: HDFC Bank's January-March quarter (Q4) results, for financial year 2022-23 (FY23), brought no cheer to investors as elevated costs, and merger-related uncertainties continue to dent the sentiment. Moreover, analysts fear that merger-related costs may put pressure on margins and cost to income ratio in the near-term, while the return on equity could moderate owing to low leverage of the parent. Analysts, therefore, opine that the stock's re-rating may be some time away. "While the risk of a de-rating on a standalone basis appears to be quite low given that the business performance is holding up well, we believe a re-rating in the stock would happen as and when more clarity emerges on the smooth transition (merger)," said a report by Sharekhan.
Growth might be impacted by up to 0.30 per cent in the March quarter as normal economic activities come under pressure due to restrictions being imposed by more states to curb rising Omicron cases, economists at the country's largest private sector lender HDFC Bank said on Tuesday. The economists said they were earlier estimating Q4 growth to come at 6.1 per cent, which can get impacted by 0.2-0.3 per cent because of the Omicron threat. "With states imposing Covid-related restrictions (night curfew on movement of people, restaurants allowed at 50 per cent capacity, offices to operate at 50 per cent capacity in various states), economic activity is likely to get impacted in Q4FY22," they said.
Outward remittances under the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) liberalised remittance scheme (LRS) made a strong comeback in the first quarter of FY23 as Indians increased spending on international travel, maintenance of close relatives, and gifts. The latest data for Q1FY23 released by the RBI shows that remittance by Indians under the scheme jumped 64.75 per cent to over $6.04 billion from $3.67 billion in Q1FY22. The amount remitted in Q1FY23 is even higher than that in Q4FY22, where outward remittance under LRS was to the tune of $5.8 billion. In April, about $2.02 billion was remitted, followed by $2.03 billion in May, and $1.98 billion in June, data released by RBI in the August bulletin shows.
Expenditure on new projects slowed down for the second quarter in a row amid an uncertain global environment and higher borrowing costs. There were new projects worth a cumulative Rs 3.26 trillion in the July-September period, according to data provided by project tracker Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). This figure is much less than Rs 4.39 trillion in the June quarter (Q1FY23) and Rs 8.46 trillion in the March quarter (Q4FY22).
Bank of Baroda Q4 results: Key brokerages have raised their target prices on Bank of Baroda after the state-owned lender posted better-than-expected March quarter (Q4FY23) results. Analysts now see up to 29 per cent upside in the stock from a one-year perspective as they believe BoB is well-placed among the large public banks with nearly all key business metrics moving closer to the top-tier banks. Valuations, too, remain attractive despite steady strong quarterly performances.
For Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) - India's largest and the world's second-largest IT services provider - the attrition rate touched an all-time high of 17.4 per cent in Q4FY22. The management, following the announcement of the Q4 results, has warned that the attrition situation could become even worse before any improvement. According to analysts, the short term, the attrition rate at TCS could even touch 20 per cent.
Brokerages expect India Inc to report an upturn in earnings for the March quarter of 2022-23, after a relatively muted showing in the previous two quarters. This growth is expected to be led by banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI) companies, FMCG firms, and automobile makers. The combined net profit of the Nifty50 companies (excluding Adani Enterprises) is expected to have grown 15.6 per cent to Rs 1.77 trillion in Q4FY23, from Rs 1.53 trillion a year ago.
Surplus liquidity in the banking system as measured by absorption of excess funds by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) fell sharply at the end of the last week due to outflows on account of advance tax payments. According to the RBI data, the net liquidity absorbed by the central bank on September 16 was at Rs 3,243.57 crore, much lower than the average of Rs 56,809.92 crore in the preceding four days of the week. The average absorption of funds by the RBI so far in September is at Rs 1.13 trillion, against the average of Rs 1.2 trillion in the previous month, the data showed.
FSN E-Commerce Ventures, the parent of Nykaa, has had a roller-coaster ride since listing last November. The initial public offering (IPO) was priced at Rs 1,125 apiece, and the stock listed at a 96 per cent premium, closing the first day at Rs 2,205 apiece. It subsequently hit a high of Rs 2,573 in late November, but has seen steady selling since, hitting a low of Rs 1,208 in May.
There are loans to salaried people where the borrower is employed, but has failed to make repayment. Such loans would be identified and sold in a pool to ARCs.
After new-age tech companies reported better-than-expected June quarter (Q1FY23) results, analysts said it will be a long road to recovery for their respective businesses and the stock prices. Moreover, brokerages differ on whether it is the right time to own these stocks. The common thread, however, that runs across most brokerages is Zomato, where they suggest buying the stock with the one-year target price ranging between Rs 60 - 115, translating into an upside of around 9 - 109 per cent from the current levels. The company's gross order value (GOV) of food delivery jumped 10 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 42 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in Q1, aided largely by growth in volume, and mild growth in average order value (AOV) at 1-2 per cent. The company also broke even on an adjusted Ebitda basis during the quarter.
IT major Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), in its Q4FY22 results, said the company's banking, finance services and insurance (BFSI) crossed the $10 billion milestone. This includes revenue from financial products, services and platforms. For Suresh Muthuswami, who recently took over as Chairman of North America, one of the focus will be to grow this percentage going ahead. The first step to grow the US market is hiring. Muthuswami said that the company will be hiring more in the US, especially from the campuses. In FY22 TCS hired over 7,000 people in the US and going ahead too the numbers will be similar.
Members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) felt that though the Indian economy was resilient in the third wave, it, however, lost some momentum and with inflation likely to soften, there is room to continue with the accommodative stance and support revival, the minutes of the MPC meeting released on Thursday revealed. The six-member MPC voted to keep the policy rate unchanged and continued with the accommodative stance at its meeting on February 10. However, external member Jayanth Verma voted against the stance because he felt a switch to neutral was long overdue and the current stance has become counterproductive and deflects focus away from addressing recessionary trends that date back to at least 2019.
Corporate earnings grew in double digits during the April-June 2022 (Q1FY23) quarter but the momentum waned. Overall corporate earnings in the quarter were down sharply from their highs in FY22. The combined net profit of 2,981 listed companies across sectors in the Business Standard sample was up 22.4 per cent YoY to Rs 2.24 trillion in the June quarter, driven by a big jump in the earnings of banks, non-banking lenders, oil & producers, and FMCG companies. Also, earnings in the corresponding quarter a year ago were affected because of the second wave of the Covid pandemic, even though the numbers were a lot better than Q1FY21 when there was a nationwide lockdown.
'Favourable product mix, sales recovery, and cost saving initiatives are expected to support margins going ahead while focus on debt reduction (target of debt free by FY24) will aid balance sheet strength'
A looming global shortage of diesel in Europe presents India with more than one opportunity to profit from strong margins. A shortage of the fuel, a key contributor to inflation, has been exacerbated by the conflict in Ukraine, and western sanctions on Russian fuel supplies. The slowdown in natural gas supply means the West needs diesel to heat their homes this winter.
Petrol and diesel prices, which have been on a freeze for the past four months in view of assembly elections in states like Uttar Pradesh, need to be increased by over Rs 12 per litre by March 16 for fuel retailers to break even. International crude oil prices shot above $120 a barrel for the first time in nine years on Thursday before retreating a little to $111 on Friday, but the gulf between cost and retail rates has only widened. With international oil prices - on which domestic fuel retails are directly benchmarked - spiking in the last two months, state-owned fuel retailers "need a massive price hike of Rs 12.1 per litre on or before March 16, 2022, just to breakeven and a price hike of Rs 15.1 is required" after including margins for oil firms, ICICI Securities said in a report.
'India has entered an economic super-cycle driven by a housing cycle turnaround.'
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